Jump to content

chainsaw

Full Members
  • Posts

    10805
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by chainsaw

  1. Texas had to play Clemson at home instead of getting a bye week because Texas lost in the SEC CG. That's a punishment, isn't it?
  2. The committee's job is to pick the best team of 136 teams, rank it, then pick the best team of the remaining 135 teams, rank it #2, then pick the best team of the remaining 134 teams, rank it #3, and so on and so forth until 25 teams are ranked. The FSU precedent tells us that by "best" they mean "most likely to win in the playoffs" and not just "team that has the most impressive record" (even though the two are highly correlated). So let's run this thought experiment. It's hard to argue that Ohio State is not the "best" team. Undefeated in a good conference, and beat good out-of-conference opponents. Has barely trailed all season. Of the remaining 135 teams, the only undefeated team is Indiana. Also in a good conference. I'm going to be somewhat controversial here, because if you're asking me whether there's a better team in that 135, I would say yes, and that team is Georgia. My reasoning is simple: in the absence of some really peculiar advantage in terms of matchups or injuries, virtually any playoff team would feel better about its chances against Indiana than it would against Georgia. Maybe that's SEC bias, but I don't think I'm out of line saying that Georgia would be undefeated with Indiana's schedule, while Indiana probably would have dropped a game (or more). Of the remaining 134 teams, the only undefeated team is Indiana. Who is best among Indiana, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Oregon? This is a hard question to answer. In terms of talent, I believe it's Texas A&M, but Indiana has a better QB and a better win (Oregon) than Texas A&M (ND). So I would call 3-4 a tie. If Ohio State beats Indiana in the CCG that should be enough to dock them down to #4 (even though I don't believe it changes the answer to the real question, which is whether opponents are more scared to face Texas A&M than Indiana) Of the remaining 132 teams, you have Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, and BYU each with one loss; Oklahoma, ND, Bama, Miami, Utah, and Vandy with two losses; and Texas, Michigan, and USC with their three losses. Of these teams, the team with the most defensible claims to being "best" are the one loss teams from strong conferences: Ole Miss and Oregon. If I think Georgia is better than Indiana then I should also think losing to Georgia is less bad than losing to Indiana, but on the other hand I can see about half the field of teams preferring to face Ole Miss in a playoff game. More talent, more money, the whole thing. So, I'm going to say Oregon is the "best" team of those 132 and Ole Miss is the "best" team remaining after that Of the remaining 130 teams, you have Texas Tech and BYU each with one loss; Oklahoma, ND, Bama, Miami, Utah, and Vandy with two losses; and Texas, Michigan, and USC with their three losses. I'll be blunt. I think most of the field would rather face one of BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, and USC (the "we like our chances" camp). So I'm going to set them aside for now. A good argument could be made that, of those 130 options, Texas is the team that puts the most fear into everyone else if the game is played in December or January. By the same logic, very good arguments could also be made about Alabama, Miami, and Notre Dame, all of which are teams that can boast recent postseason success (an ability to "peak at the right time") on top of elite talent (the "Fuck" camp). Everyone else (Oklahoma, Vandy, and Michigan) are closer to that "we like our chances" camp. So, who is "best" among Texas, Alabama, Miami, and Notre Dame? My gut tells me Notre Dame is not the best of those four, but maybe isn't the worst, but then again lost to Miami (but would it lose in December/January)? The same can be asked about Alabama, which is why a loss in December would cut against the idea that it is "best" of the four, even if that loss is to a great team in a conference championship game. By "best," I mean "strikes the most fear in playoff opponents"
  3. You're right. I would say all of those teams are overranked and overrated. Notre Dame I sort of understand the invisible hand of moneyed interests trying to help them qualify since they have no access to an auto bid. Indiana and Tech could very easily be exposed in the playoffs, though. Assuming Indiana loses to Ohio State in the conference title game, I don't have an issue with them having a playoff bid just like they had one last year.
  4. I would avoid indulging concepts like "more deserving," but I agree that the argument for who's better is easier to make when BYU has two losses instead of one. If Tech loses, the argument that Texas is better is easier to make. The committee would be dumb to allow two teams from that conference to get in.
  5. Well, sure, but if that were actually the case an undefeated G5 team would always be ranked ahead of a 1-loss P4 team, and a 1-loss G5 team would always be ranked ahead of a 2-loss P4 team, and so-on and so forth, but that clearly isn't true. There are 1-loss teams who are currently ranked behind ND, ousux, and Alabama.
  6. For rankings purposes, they are selecting who is "best" and ranking accordingly. The five "best" conference champs take up five of the spots on the bracket, and the seven "best" remaining teams on the rankings are the teams who fill out the rest of the bracket, which is seeded according to their ranking.
  7. The mission of the CFP committee, from its website: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol It does not say to select the "most deserving" teams. It says to select the "best" teams. That's a very meaningful distinction. The key phrases to me here is: "comparable teams" Must Team A have the same record as Team B in order for them to be "comparable" enough that the "process" comes into play? Because I believe Texas has everyone else beat as far as these factors are concerned. The only principled way to avoid using these factors is by saying 3-loss teams cannot be "comparable" to 2-loss teams. Honestly, they should record and televise the entire deliberation process. Full transparency, like an ACC video review of a ruling on the field.
  8. Nobody seriously believes that any other team in the CFP conversation would have won three of five against Ohio State, Vandy, ousux, aggy, and Georgia. If BYU were to sneak in, they would be blown out and embarrassed. Same goes for Utah, Virginia, and whichever G5 gets in. "Deserve" should not have anything to do with it. The task of the committee is to find the five best conference champions and the seven best at-large teams, using all of the information available to it. The five best conference champs will come from the P4 conferences and from one G5 conference. I don't think anyone here would disagree that Texas for most of the season was not one of the seven best at-large teams, but they clearly improved and are currently better at least six of the other teams in the CFP conversation. I don't think any of the other six teams should come from the Big XII, and the only teams outside the SEC and B1G who have any business being considered one of the seven best at-large teams are Miami and Notre Dame (in that order). We should not be rewarding teams for avoiding tough competition by granting them playoff spots.
  9. The old adage, "you are what you emphasize," still true. The Spurs clearly do not emphasize perimeter defense. Ant Fucking Edwards! He should never be wide open! Under any fucking circumstances! At times they appear so easy to solve. The offense also suffers amnesia at least twice in the second halves of games, and completely forgets its identity. That is the most frustrating part of these games, and it almost always results in a lead being erased in a matter of minutes. If we're lucky, we regain control of the game. Eventually the top half of the league is going to figure out how to exploit this even more, and the games will take on the trajectory of what we saw tonight. Wemby hopefully can continue his maturation and in the process of being "the guy" prevent those amnesia spells. But the defensive issues are extremely worrisome. I have not seen it get better and we're approaching December. I would hate to see a team this good swept in the first round.
  10. If they make it in, it would be as a 10 seed, so they'd travel to #7. Texas only gets in if Tech and Georgia win. If Tech and Georgia both win, I think they'd get first round byes (Top 4 seeds). The other teams with byes would be the B1G champ and either Indiana or Oregon. #5 is probably Aggy. #6 is probably Indiana or Oregon. I bet #7 is an SEC team, probably Ole Miss.
  11. Really like seeing CB getting good minutes.
  12. As much as I want Disney to be able to pull the strings, we have to take the committee at its word when it claims to be impervious to outside influences.
  13. This is why I've been saying we should not be pushing Sark out at this time. Inventory is at an all time low.
  14. I don't see why UVA would want Miami in. I also wonder if ND has any friends on the committee. It's a 2 loss team with a weak schedule, but it also has been smart enough to run up the score to try to deflect attention from the fact that they started the season 0-2.
  15. UVA also on the committee. Shouldn't matter because UVA beats Duke and autobids in.
  16. And yet, as Sark correctly points out, if we'd played Syracuse instead of Ohio State, we'd be in.
  17. I love this creative use of traditional Mississippi music!
  18. I don't see anyone on the committee who will be eager to advocate for Texas, I gotta say.
  19. I guess Wesley Walls is gonna make a strong argument for Laneless Ole Miss to be in, then
  20. Utah's AD is on the committee. Does he need to abstain in some capacity?
  21. Something about Texas A&M makes the Centex guys more clutch, especially if they're from Westlake and have been in the program for several years.
  22. Notre Dame is very good at running up the score against terrible teams. That's more or less what they've needed to do to make their case to the committee.
  23. He hasn't answered that yet. I think maybe they beat ousux or aggy (but not both).
  24. Did it project what would need to happen for Texas to sneak in? I think Bama, Tech, and UVA have to win.
×
×
  • Create New...