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DalTxHornFan

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Everything posted by DalTxHornFan

  1. DalTxHornFan
    The Narrator: It will cost the taxpayers way more than $25 Billion. (For the good of the country, of course.)
  2. DalTxHornFan
    Frankly, I think that the Fed should have done something like this way earlier. So many banks had bond interest rate exposure. And the OCC knew all about it. The current administration simply wanted to wish the current interest rate environment as "transitory" -- 4-5 basis points is not "transitory"
  3. DalTxHornFan
    The U.S. taxpayers are going to be buying a ton of underwater bonds from banks this week. At par. Guess who will take the hit?
  4. DalTxHornFan
    That FDIC press release is really dumb. Love the "no cost to taxpayers" bit. Are Men from Mars gonna fund it?
  5. DalTxHornFan
    Was the United States banking system just nationalized today?
  6. DalTxHornFan
    In a nutshell -- Gubmint is scared.
  7. DalTxHornFan
    It's happening. No link, but errybody will have access to their deposits tomorrow. Special assistance to banks with underwater bond portfolios. Details to come.
  8. DalTxHornFan
    Bold prediction. FDIC is going to make errybody whole on their deposits in this bank. They will also unlimited deposit protection for all banks on an "emergency" basis to avoid a further crisis.
  9. DalTxHornFan
    HTM on bond portfolios is a very questionable classification right now. I could see some sort of regulatory action to allow those to be counted as assets without discount, maybe with a fed repurchase facility if a bank has a liquidity issue.
  10. DalTxHornFan
    We used the fiction of "regulatory goodwill" for decades to allow S&Ls to stay in business. The gubmint does what it wants to.
  11. DalTxHornFan
    I was hearing something from a financial services-connected friend in DC about some emergency legislation being discussed to deal with the insurance cap with respect to this situation. That sounds like a long-shot to me. But who knows? If this is truly going to be a systemic issue, it might make sense to cut it off before it goes further.
  12. DalTxHornFan
    Don't know any details, but I would bet that you know things.
  13. DalTxHornFan
    I don't know the details, but it really seems dumb that there wasn't liquidity provided to the bank earlier this week. Plenty of assets. Management arrogance? The window is almost always open. We will learn more.
  14. DalTxHornFan
    Totally unrelated point. Scrip clubs are a great way to launder cash.
  15. DalTxHornFan
    And I don't think that you are wrong. I think that Nate is in a lot of trouble. Not just judicially.
  16. DalTxHornFan
    Most of my career has involved litigation related to failed financial institutions. This one is different because of the rapid shift in interest rates, making HTM bond portfolios needing big haircuts. I think that more will be exposed soon. The 2008 crisis related to both screwed up MBS and a related lack of market for real estate assets. The 1982-1986 crisis related to a plunge in oil prices and tax law changes. All of which were exacerbated by a bunch of S&L cowboys that had never done anything beyond a single family home loan trying to get into complex commercial lending. (And maybe a bit of fraud!)
  17. DalTxHornFan
    It's all about growing the user base and making it all scaleable, man. Don't you get it? The future profits will be immense! Just hang on for a couple more quarters!
  18. DalTxHornFan
    You are over the target. They had the intention to hold to maturity, but not the ability.
  19. DalTxHornFan
    I've been talking to lots of people in the last 24 hours, so I apologize if I am repeating myself, but to the SVB Asset/Liability Committee, I ask:
  20. DalTxHornFan
    Understood. But HTM classification is inherently subjective. That much difference between book and fair value relative to their reported equity is pretty squishy IMHO. You have to evaluate the ability of the company to actually achieve the HTM. I would love to see their plan for that.
  21. DalTxHornFan
    Per page 15, their HTM securities were on their books at $91.321 Billion, Fair Value was reported as $76.169 Billion. That is a delta of $15.152 Billion. Does anybody think that the current interest rate environment is "transitory"? I think that there are lots of bankers, lawyers and accountants working this weekend. Monday will likely be a bloodbath.
  22. DalTxHornFan
    Don't have it handy, but I do believe it was part of a planned/scheduled series of sales.
  23. DalTxHornFan
    Even "hotdog or not" startups can/do hire virtual CFOs that are aware of risk issues. This is pretty basic stuff.
  24. DalTxHornFan
    SVB is saying there that they have an embedded $15B loss!
  25. DalTxHornFan
    I've been out of this game for a while, but I used to have an insurance industry client that had an arrangement to spread it's 100's of millions of $ all around the country in CD's at the insured limit. Another client had a requirement for collateral against their uninsured deposit balances. I assume those options are still available, but way too complicated for the VC/Tech guys?

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