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Chopper

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Everything posted by Chopper

  1. Chopper
    Well Ava Braun aka Maggie Haberman certainly tries. What actually happened: Q: Many are telling you to stop with the personal attacks against Kamala Harris... Trump: I’m angry at her. I don’t have respect for her. She attacks me. She called me weird. She called JD weird. He’s not weird! wiki: 2 days ago
  2. Chopper
    Reality hitting the WSJ editorial board very hard right now (on their homepage): Also this:
  3. Chopper
    Speaking of, I can't wait to read texags slobbering all over how manly it was to cuddle a box of cheerios like a long last friend.
  4. Chopper
    Another new initiative announced https://archive.ph/3H73q NEW: Kamala Harris will also call for up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance both for first-generation home buyers and for any families buying their first home who have paid their rent on time for two years. The campaign estimates this would benefit more than one million home buyers annually. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/harris-unveils-policy-proposals-to-address-affordable-housing-crisis
  5. Chopper
    Sheeeeit. Noted it in the post. Thanks for the heads-up.
  6. Chopper
    OTOH it's a political message that will sound great on the campaign trail and at the convention. It's pandering (like the R's always do and Democrats typically don't) that will put R's on the defense, and it loudly signals Harris has a plan when she's in charge. It also has the side benefit of putting the major issue, sadly under-discussed, of corporate consolidation of all our industries into the mainstream.
  7. Chopper
    I guess Diaper Don loves the Taliban ?
  8. Chopper
    Time for a music break? (edit - it's a fake)
  9. Chopper
    Harris-Walz just opened a new shop
  10. Chopper
    I didn't see this quote by Walz last night in this thread. The Anti-Tommy Tuberville.
  11. Chopper
    I'm surprised by your seemingly contrarian take. Do you seriously think they didn't already heavily focus group the possibility of using it for the next 2.5 months as a political message for dealing with inflation., esp compared to whatever drumpf is offering? As for policy, the devil is in the details, so it seems more than a bit early to judge.
  12. Chopper
    New from ABC, a new miniseries, "Historically Unpopular!" https://abcnews.go.com/538/tim-walz-popular-jd-vance/story?id=112841577
  13. Chopper
    Apropos of nothing - sold out in all sizes (edit - dog ladies, and childless cat ladies also sold out)
  14. Chopper
    We also don't know whether Trump is a business partner or employee of Saudi Arabia, or merely accepting bribes. Pick one of the 3 because it has to be 1. It's real. 100% real life and it's beautiful At the time I was centrist or considered myself such. "Fiscally conservative," rather libertarian and always pro-choice...Clinton's health care plan, which got shot down mainly due to opposition from the insurance companies and AARP, would have been glorious. Much better than ACA. Today I still consider myself fiscally conservative but take a much wider, longer-term view of the costs vs benefits of any plan or regulation.
  15. Chopper
    It's a good thing tiktok doesn't embed here but I'd allow an exception for this one. Clever 10 second ad for Harris by the Lincoln Project. Worth a click.
  16. Chopper
    Yes, I've heard it put that, unless the spread between the candidates is greater than 2x the statistical bias, an individual poll isn't telling you which candidate would win an election at the point in time of the poll. Per Real Clear Polling, "It is almost definitionally difficult to detect partisan non-response bias, since you can’t talk to people who didn’t respond to polls." They have a brief discussion about non-response bias at the end of this article. https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/does-jesse-watters-know-how-polls-work
  17. Chopper
    Fantastic policy angle for the Harris/Walz campaign. (graph courtesy of Robert Reich)
  18. Chopper
    That's statistical bias. It'd be great if you would ask her about non-response bias and how she thinks that impacts the +/- of a poll. I'm not on twitter or I would. My understanding is it basically doubles the range of error: + or - 5 turns into = or minus 10. Non-response bias stems from the difficulty of getting a representative sample of people to answer a phone call or respond to a letter, i.e. to get 800 registered voters to respond we had to attempt to poll 1 million registered voters. This is a recent academic study: https://www.gesis.org/fileadmin/admin/Dateikatalog/pdf/guidelines/nonresponse_bias_analysis_felderer_2024.pdf I agree the vibe is with Harris. But I don't trust the polls. Peace is definitely not in either Drumpf's or Netanyahu's interest. You're right, that was 2 desperate criminals, scheming together. edit to add: "the call took place a day before a crucial round of negotiations in Doha"
  19. Chopper
    Worth mentioning: He said that on the podcast hosted by Eric Weinstein, who happens to be the Managing Director of Thiel Capital. Project 2025 was going to be their agenda, until the whole "Weird" thing came along, people started reading about it, it polled horribly and they stopped talking about it and had the publisher delay the book's publishing. In its place they rushed out that one-pager.
  20. Chopper
    JD Vance, trying to sound authentic and humble, just told a story about driving in Kentucky with his grandma when he was 4 years old, says his grandmother pulled a 44 Magnum on a motorcyclist for giving them the middle finger. Obviously bullshit story but it's fucking weird that he thinks "grandmother driving a 4 year old around with a loaded magnum" is charming and impressive (or even somehow relevant to an election). Article at link, video of the relevant portion of the speech (in front of an audience of approx. 10 people) is at the bottom https://www.rawstory.com/jd-vance-grandmother/
  21. Chopper
    Because someone mentioned Frank Putz "I would probably be more excited about this take had Frank Luntz not once put me in one of his made-for-TV focus groups because he forgot to screen out participants working in politics or journalism. In Washington DC. The full story lives here: https://amandahoey.substack.com/p/a-democratic-pollster-in-frank-luntzs "
  22. Chopper
    Drumpf's one campaign event this week. Asheville. He requested the smaller venue. Sad.
  23. Chopper
    This is better news than a poll at this point in the race, in my opinion The news has been so positive for Democrats even the NYT is forced to print some of it. Recent Voter Registration Data Offers Hint of Enthusiasm for Democrats Two swing states have seen a boost in Democratic sign-ups since Kamala Harris entered the race.
  24. Chopper
    Running total
  25. Chopper
    They have this zoom call arranged for Jewish women but I'm wondering if they should've explicitly included older gay gentlemen. (It's a Streisand joke if you don't get it.)

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