I'm making the assumption myself that Selzer is more correct than these other dorks, but there is such a simple explanation for the misses if this ends in a blowout win for Harris.
How long have we been watching this unfold and asking "How is this thing even close?"
The pollsters adjusting and adding weight to the data in their models in order to "find" the hidden Trump voters that were missed in 2020 and 2016 are completely missing something that the electorate itself is observing in real time that is actually nullifying the hidden Trump vote.
1. Dobbs, obviously and most importantly
2. Trump in 2024 is the oldest, most unfit and unstable candidate of any if our lifetimes
3. Or 2b. The most hideous, tone-deaf, messy, insulting, hateful and clumsy campaign of my lifetime.
This is not spiking the ball, it will still likely be very close in PA, NC, GA, AZ. But it's not hard to understand how all the stat geniuses could shit down their own legs in unison.