no. i've just concluded that races now are only about turnout, so i get nervous of any indicator of reduced turnout in a population that would toss trump out.
Another way to look at it is that the area for biggest growth from 2016 is the yoots. It worked in 2018 when they voted 2x the normal rate. I’m hoping that happens again but that chart makes it feel like they’ll be less inspired. We will see
I’ve said since he rolled it out that KAG will be his undoing. entire campaign based around earworms. Then he botches it by going from a catchy one to that disaster. Seems to recognize it now and is trying to revert to MAGA.
I've also decided it's because calcified brains become more certain they are right over time. Makes it easier to get the motivation to get out and vote.
watched the pilot. i found it to be a bit of a slog. i don't like nazis (i mean, those guys are real jerks), but i feel like the same story could have been told in about 1/2 the time.
Yeah, Jon Snow dying was the signal plot armor had gone from 0-100 in a show that chopped the main character’s head off in season one. Even after that I was surprised how bad it got with everyone not imminently disposable surviving impossible situations at the battle of winterfell.
1) I think there is no such thing as bad press too. Collins is front and center of everything. Sheer name recognition has to be peak.
2) McSally gives of too much of a cheap imitation of Trump vibe (“I’m not talking to you, you’re a liberal hack”). To the extent the prevailing winds is a return to normalcy, Collins projects that better.
I think gmr is right. The predictions are too rosy. It's too easy to look at polls that over sample D given turnouts R's have, particularly when the senate is at play in their state since all they care about is SCOTUS.