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atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
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atomheartbevo last won the day on October 1

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  1. Here’s some things to consider: This could be Russia’s last “safe” warm-water port and Assad going down means they lose it. I’d think they’d fight like hell for it, If Assad goes down, Iran loses its last major ally in the ME (they can’t rely on the Houthis). As it stands, Iran can’t do a lot because its access through Lebanon is probably gone at this point, and it has to be wary of Israel when making large deliveries. Israel isn’t going to let Iran arm any groups around them, and they can’t go through the Kurds and Iraq, and definitely can’t go through Türkiye. . Israel and Türkiye will happily let Assad fall and then watch the various groups fight each other. At some point they have to step in though and pick a winner (who will be stable). The Kurds are nominally under US protection east of the Euphrates. If things fall apart, they could wind up breaking off in some form. Türkiye wouldn’t be happy, but they would help keep Syria divided and provide a buffer to Iran (not that Iran could move through Northern Iraq, but if they,,, somehow did, the Kurds would be waiting). There is the problem of Kurds in Türkiye and Iraq, but hell maybe the Turks would be happy with them leaving Türkiye in some manner and moving to what was Syria. Speaking of Iraq, if things fall apart, the Western border areas of Iraq get dicey. Crazy how this thing could spiral out of control so quickly and suck a bit of Iraq and possibly Lebanon into it. Also crazy at how much Iran and Russia really need Syria.
  2. I really liked the concept. Would make for a decent TV series spanning multiple families. I suppose you could argue that Ghosts kind of covers it.
  3. If Gundy is still at Okie Lite a week from now, I’ll be surprised he’s still breathing, let alone coaching there. My Okie cousins are ready for him to disappear one way or another.
  4. Dogs https://bsky.app/starter-pack/puplocke626.bsky.social/3lc2rfytfys2i Longhorns https://bsky.app/starter-pack/baizer.bsky.social/3latzvllkpc2z https://bsky.app/starter-pack/jyarbs.bsky.social/3lb2nvd4pxb24 https://bsky.app/starter-pack/hornintheozarks.bsky.social/3lawj43r53z2q (don’t automatically follow all because Geoff Ketchum is there) Surly/Immamac is in this group https://bsky.app/starter-pack/hornintheozarks.bsky.social/3lb4jr5ueth2z
  5. And it could be applied to Iraq with the Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. And Yugoslavia set the modern precedent for how messy it can get.
  6. Supposedly a Syrian general has been captured, which means his troops were captured or wiped out (or they really hate him). Supposedly Syrian forces are dropping dumb bombs on a couple of cities, killing civilians (would not be surprising). Lots of conspiracy theories that Israel and Turkiye are running the show, with claims that Al a Qaeda and ISIS are doing their bidding. Those are fun conspiracy theories.
  7. Not until they take Damascus, however there are a lot of groups that are spread out in Syria, so the country could just fracture similar to Yugoslavia, Here is a decent map although if you drew a line from Damascus to Deir At Zor, everything east of it is pretty sparsely settled, and most likely there are no Syrian troops there - most of the population is closer to the Western/Northern parts.
  8. Losing to UT and Tech back-to-back…..
  9. https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-flag-appears-big-screen-during-putin-visit-kazakhstan-2024-11-28/
  10. They are 18, 19, 20, 21, and there maybe a few 22 year-old grad transfers. Go easy on them, they were trying to keep their voices down in the locker room so that Elko didn't hear them.
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