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atomheartbevo

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atomheartbevo last won the day on December 8

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  1. I think of the Hemingway quote, paraphrasing, "it happened slowly, then suddenly."
  2. It's a lot more than that, but it's also tough to quantify (paging @PTINS ). They are refining far less, but they are exporting far less, so they are close to staying even on being able to refine what they need internally. This is a decent breakdown. https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en That was from October, and it's safe to say their capacity has dropped a lot since then, at least temporarily. As things continue, their ability to repair refineries will drop as spare parts become scarce. Plus, when refineries are hit repeatedly, there comes a point where they may have to basically be rebuilt, which takes a long time. And you don't even have to wreck a refinery if the pipelines/pumping stations are wrecked and oil can't be moved (they can't store as much as we do). Having to export oil and then re-import the refined end-product is also telling. Ukrainian capacity to hit them hard and hit them deep is only increasing as well, both with drones, but also with their long-range missiles coming online, and Russian air defenses continue to be degraded. I don't think it was 38% (the article is probably right 38% was the upper range), but I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 20s (only offset because they are exporting less). I don't think 2 years, but I think we will know how things will shake out over the next 6 months, because the tempo is such that Russia refining capacities are going to drop double-digits going forward and as more air defenses are destroyed/exhausted, we will see a lot more targets taken out.
  3. Germany and Poland are really ramping things up in a way that the US is not. Sweden and Finland got off the neutrality fence and did some conference realignment/expansion when they've held out for over 70 years. Various European nations and defense companies are ramping up arms production, upgrading systems, adding systems, etc. I don't think Europe is aligned with the US anymore. Trump sees this as just a real-estate deal, if Ukraine will give up some, Russia will be happy. Europe is taking the stance that it will just buy Putin time to re-arm and try and fill out the ranks.
  4. I wish it was, but now that we will be actively going after tankers, the temperature has been raised substantially.
  5. It's really odd. She knew she was being recorded, they posed for photos, they did follow-up interviews where they answered questions about things she brought up, etc. If there were no recordings and it was all off-the-record, Trump would have all of his cabinet members out there denouncing it as lies and fake and he wouldn't shut up about it and would be talking about shutting VF down and how it's engaged in treason. But the recordings exist. So she claims they were "out of context" and he trots out his cabinet to say she's a wonderful and powerful member of the administration, the bestest of the bestest.
  6. I don’t have my reading glasses on so I can’t read the text and I’m doing voice dictation so text maybe screwy, but holy fucking shit Dick Van Dyke may not make it to the end of 2025.
  7. Yeah, the only games I care about in 4K is Age of Empires II Remastered 4K edition and Civilization - I can tell a difference. Everything else, not as much and/or I'm more focused on FPS/speed (I still do Team Fortress 2 lol and some World of Warcraft and Ultima Online) and my son does most of his (few) games at 1080p - Hogwarts, some Hot Wheels stuff, and Minecraft (and he's constantly tweaking Minecraft depending on what he's doing). And most of it is okay on our RTX 2060, but I know for a few hundred bucks I could improve performance a decent amount. And I would be able to repurpose the 2060 for a second PC.
  8. And VF has audio tapes. Reading through it, I'm beginning to wonder if this is a conspiracy of sorts, but one not involving Trump. Like somebody or several somebodies in that photo above decided they were going to get some negative shit out there about Trump from a legitimate inside source. Whether VF chose her or they did and worked out the details with VF that she would be the focus, doesn't matter. I could even see some of them agreeing to have her say some negative shit about them (since people will soon forget it) so that it didn't look like she was just dissing Trump. I'm not saying anything like 25th Amendment or anything that big, just laying the groundwork for some of them to try and show there was distance between them and Trump or laying the groundwork for 2028 and saying "Hey, you saw what Wiles said about Trump, we were doing the best we could, but that was Trump." Wiles didn't say this in a vacuum, it was over 11 interviews, with background interviews from some of the people in that photo (and they posed for multiple photos for this article) and it was all recorded. I don't want to toot the conspiracy theory horn, but she knew exactly what she was saying, regardless of context.
  9. Still have it somewhere. Erin was....something else. That statement from above in @tx 3 putt post...it's nice that he chose to write something to post after he was gone Ughh. Gerard’s death was confirmed by his wife, Janet, in a Facebook post Tuesday evening. “Early this morning Gil – my soulmate – lost his fight with a rare and viciously aggressive form of cancer,” read Janet’s post. “From the moment when we knew something was wrong to his death this morning was only days. No matter how many years I got to spend with him it would have ever been enough. Hold the ones you have tightly and love them fiercely.”
  10. We have to make Maduro cry uncle. “Over lunch, Wiles told me about Trump’s Venezuela strategy: “He wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle. And people way smarter than me on that say that he will.” (Wiles’s statement appears to contradict the administration’s official stance that blowing up boats is about drug interdiction, not regime change.)”
  11. Julia Davis doesn't get enough credit for predicting where things were headed - she's mentioning what she was writing about and seeing in April of 2021.
  12. Not until we get our Land, Oil, and Other Assets back that Venezuela stole from us.
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