It’s gotta be a combination of things. Don’t forget that a lot of the Russian men and their families who opposed being conscripted and who had the means fled Russia, and those are the ones who would have been in the streets fighting a draft. Many of the ones left behind are either okay with it, are poor as shit, or were dumb enough and didn’t think it would happen to them.
I’d say these things:
Conscription of the Moscow/St. Petersburg group in large enough numbers
More infrastructure hit, to the point it seriously impacts all Russians. Oil and gas and electrical.
Moscow has to be hit as hard as Kyiv. Put some drones into the Kremlin.
That’s a start as far as I’m concerned. Ukraine is slowly accomplishing #2.
Right now, your typical Russian doesn’t feel too affected by the war. The Kremlin on fire, rolling blackouts, etc. would put Putin’s public image of being in control to the test.