It's a lot more than that, but it's also tough to quantify (paging @PTINS ). They are refining far less, but they are exporting far less, so they are close to staying even on being able to refine what they need internally.
This is a decent breakdown.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en
That was from October, and it's safe to say their capacity has dropped a lot since then, at least temporarily. As things continue, their ability to repair refineries will drop as spare parts become scarce. Plus, when refineries are hit repeatedly, there comes a point where they may have to basically be rebuilt, which takes a long time. And you don't even have to wreck a refinery if the pipelines/pumping stations are wrecked and oil can't be moved (they can't store as much as we do).
Having to export oil and then re-import the refined end-product is also telling.
Ukrainian capacity to hit them hard and hit them deep is only increasing as well, both with drones, but also with their long-range missiles coming online, and Russian air defenses continue to be degraded.
I don't think it was 38% (the article is probably right 38% was the upper range), but I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 20s (only offset because they are exporting less). I don't think 2 years, but I think we will know how things will shake out over the next 6 months, because the tempo is such that Russia refining capacities are going to drop double-digits going forward and as more air defenses are destroyed/exhausted, we will see a lot more targets taken out.