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atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by atomheartbevo

  1. And if that doesn't work, you talk to your dad, and he takes the next step which involves driving 500 miles, across the state line, to dump something in an abandoned deep-ass coal pit full of water. Once word gets out around school, nobody will fuck with you. Sports always wins when it comes to the broadcast networks.
  2. For all of Russia's bluster, they've decided not to see if NATO would shoot down any of their jets. FlightRadar24/FlightTracker getting a workout. Now do Mike Gundy's replacement. Meanwhile, in Germany
  3. For the aircraft porn aficionados
  4. Are you saying that he sounds like a former heroin addict who got a parasite in his brain because he just couldn't pass up eating monkey when he was in Africa, and who was later caught driving around with a dead bear cub in his trunk because he really wanted to know what it tasted like?
  5. One of those fancy new missiles right into the Kremlin would be pretty sweet. But probably more productive to hit some targets near Moscow and make them move their limited air defenses in closer, freeing up targets for Ukraine elsewhere.
  6. I don't know about per-capita, but I'd say England, France, and Poland would be contenders - England and France have experienced leaders (NCOs and commissioned officers) thanks to recent combat experience (Poland does as well, they were with us in Afghanistan). France has a lot of recent experience in Africa. They all have very integrated militaries from a combined arms point of view - they engage in training exercises on a large scale with everything integrated so infantry know how to work with armor and artillery, etc.. England and France have solid navies. Their leadership is serious about Russia. Poland might get the edge in the future, but they aren't done expanding so I'm not sure how big they are. Germany would be in the mix because they are large, but their leadership position is kind of wonky.
  7. Two things, first, their long-range weapons that are just coming online - we've been waiting to see them in action, and they aren't even at full production yet. Second, it's the concentrated effort (and success) to bring down the Russian oil & gas infrastructure, and by proxy, their economy. The Russians appear to be powerless to stop them from doing it, which means Russian air defenses are absolutely strained. Seeing a reduction in exports and gas stations in Moscow being out of some fuels seems huge, and that is while they still have reserves sitting in tanks. If Ukraine can keep up a steady pressure on oil & gas, even increase it, I don't see how Russia recovers, at least on the civilian side. If they do something like drop the Kerch Bridge, Russia will have to have fuel depots to supply vehicles going over the land bridge, which means static targets (and Ukraine doesn't even have to hit a depot, just the infrastructure supplying it).
  8. And you could yak off in the bathroom!
  9. Armchair general thoughts Russia is clearly rattled about something, to the point where they are trying to scare/fuck with NATO. This clearly ratcheted way up over the last week. Ukraine is damaging Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure to the point where there is rationing and shortages all over, even in Moscow. As PTINS mentioned, everything from delivery to refinery operations. Ukraine has been ramping up attacks on Russian stuff in Crimea and the Russians bitched to the German and British ambassadors about those attacks. That post above and others mentioned radars, although hitting the radars could be a part of their campaign against the oil and gas infrastructure and not necessarily about any offensives on the ground - if the Russians can’t see the missiles or drones until they are close to their targets, it increases the chances of missiles and drones getting through. Added bonus of forcing the Russians to move air defense systems and radars away from Ukraine’s borders, also giving the Ukrainians more time in the air before being detected. Ukraine has their new missile in service, and also some solid drones. Seems like the Kerch Bridge is a question of when, not if. Trump seems pretty convinced Ukraine has the ability to knock Russia off the board. Now he’s like Joe Rogan and is always impressed by the last person he talked to, but what he said went above and beyond simply having listened to Zelenskyy paint a nice picture and parroting that - seemed like he’s probably seen some data/intel. Say the Ukrainians continue hitting oil and gas infrastructure hard, like they did last night. There are already fuel shortages in many areas. Keep doing that for another month to where it impacts military operations more than it may be now. Continue blinding Russian forces in Crimea by taking out radars. Now drop the Kerch Bridge, forcing the Russians to rely on a long, but shallow land bridge to get people and supplies and fuel in and out of Crimea and to eat up even more precious fuel. Ukraine has great missiles and the railroads are fixed positions so the rail lines will go down and that land bridge would be covered with Ukrainian drones looking for vehicles. Now there is the water option, but fuel is still a problem, and ships can’t easily move people or supplies in large quantities without becoming juicy targets, and they have to unload at ports or some facilities with cranes, which are fixed positions (targets) and it’s slow to unload ships. I’m more optimistic than I was just a few months ago. Putting aside the economic impacts (Russia going into deficit spending and not having much oil and gas to export), if they have fuel shortages in Moscow, you know military fuel supplies will end up on the black market. It’s a very interesting time and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a very clear picture over the next week or two.
  10. Ukraine continues attack on Russian radar systems in Crimea.
  11. Taiwan: please allow the Russians to take over all training of the Chinese military.
  12. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: The whole day yesterday, we had the Kremlin saying, "No, we are not a paper tiger. We are a bear." Well, you know, if you are a bear, you don't have to announce yourself to be a bear because everybody will notice. This shows a lot of weakness on the Russian side. And clearly, the president [Trump] hit a nerve here.
  13. Guess whose husband died yesterday after being in a coma since January? Margarita Simonyan
  14. Don’t think they realize what a conflict with the West would do to their military. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/europeans-privately-tell-russia-they-re-ready-to-shoot-down-jets?srnd=homepage-europe At a meeting in Moscow, a Russian diplomat told the British, French and German envoys that the Russian air incursions into Estonia were a deliberate response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, officials familiar with the exchange tells Bloomberg.
  15. https://www.ft.com/content/0b351091-3f82-4f2f-bef2-a52a35f009f2 paywalled
  16. From a few days ago, but the 80s kid in me that collected a shitload of books of photos of fighters loves the shot
  17. I will console Carla Bruni.
  18. If gas shortages are hitting Moscow and it’s only September, things are looking up.
  19. This guy nailed it https://x.com/Breflactu/status/1971279950419538296 Russia doesn’t want World War III, it just wants everyone thinking it’s coming. This is diplomacy as karaoke—loud, off-key, and meant to clear the room. Over 300 intercepts in 2025 and we’re still here, bills unpaid, coffee cold. If every intercepted Russian jet meant war, we’d be on World War 29 by now. But no, it’s the same tired bluff: bark like a pit bull, bite like a chihuahua. NATO’s not fooled—they log the flight, scramble the jets, go back to paperwork. Russia’s deterrence is basically a toddler banging pots in the kitchen: loud but harmless. The real trick is psychological—keep the West twitchy, keep the headlines screaming. It’s not strategy, it’s a magic act: distract from weakness with smoke and mirrors. Four times more violations since 2022, but zero studies linking that to actual war. Because war isn’t the point—the point is making you believe war is the point. It’s saber-rattling without the saber, just a cheap tambourine. The ambassador’s “ultimatum” is a stand-up routine dressed as geopolitics. The joke’s on anyone who takes it literally. Watch the jets, not the mouths—they burn fuel, not credibility.
  20. Russian ambassador to France shit-talking It will be war." - Russian Ambassador to France Alexey Meshkov said on RTL radio that the downing of a Russian aircraft over a NATO country would mean the beginning of a military conflict. He also added that NATO aircraft allegedly "quite often" violate Russian airspace, but they are not being shot down. Yeah, NATO is threatening to attack Russia after invading Belarus, threatening to nuke Moscow and St. Petersburg, and following it up by flying aircraft all over Russian airspace, and constantly talking about it on government TV stations.
  21. If Ukraine starts really eating into their fuel supplies as it looks like they are doing, and then launches an offensive somewhere or cuts off large units, would be interesting to see how Russia could respond.
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