@PTINS curious what you think of this
IEA Sees Drone Strikes Weighing on Russia Oil-Processing Till Mid-2026 - Bloomberg
"The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency says in its latest monthly oil-market report... '
Previously, we had assumed a normalization of refining activity as we approached year-end but now embed a more cautious outlook,' the Paris-based agency said in a report on Tuesday. The IEA currently sees Russian processing rates at just under 5 million barrels a day through June 2026, and a recovery toward 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as more information becomes available. '
The increasingly widespread and significant Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure' has so far cut the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the agency said...
With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to 5.1 million barrels a day, the highest since May 2023, according to the IEA. Still, the nation’s oil-export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the agency estimated.
The decline came as Russia’s crude-supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, were more than offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports, the report said. According to the IEA calculations, Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in a decade, excluding April 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic."