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atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by atomheartbevo

  1. OSiNT community a littled riled up because some bigger names took the Russians at their word about a video and it turns out it was not what it was. GeoConfirmed UKR - Disinformation. (Disinformation refers to false or misleading information that is deliberately created and spread with the intent to deceive, manipulate, or cause harm.) Russian forces are seen walking through streets and delivering a speech in a video, claiming they are patrolling Kup'yans'k. The footage even includes a map pinpointing the location and in the text with the footage they call out @ZelenskyyUa. However, the @GeoConfirmed location, performed by @rndr22 and verified by @Bielitzling, reveals that the patrol actually took place in Tavilzhanka, Kharkiv Oblast, approximately 18 km north of Kup'yans'k. It's particularly concerning that accounts such as @TheStudyofWar and @MilitarySummary accepted and shared this information without proper verification. This is precisely why the GeoLocation community exists: to combat misinformation through rigorous open-source verification.
  2. I wonder if they are having retention issues or he knows Venezuela will not be popular. He doesn’t like to give money out unless there is a reason.
  3. Fixed,
  4. Damn, Massie has been amazing over the past month.
  5. @PTINS Natural gas prices in Europe have all but returned to normal since Russia's full scale war in Ukraine. In fact, the only reason for the spike in 2021 and 2022 has been Russia's energy war against Europe, which started even before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. The numbers clearly say that. It proves many things: Russian energy was never cheap, neither politically nor economically. Russian energy was always unreliable. Russia always needed Europe more than the other way around. I saw the downfall of Southstream. I saw the downfall of Nordstream. And now the whole European market for Russian gas is getting buried. This is what I mean when I say that Russia is losing in the long run. All what you need is determination, patience and tenacity. The European market was the primary reason why Russia raked in so much money the last three decades. The European customers were reliable, paid well and were easily to access, who in turn put in a lot of investments into Russia. Now all of that is gone because of petty imperial ambitions of a short man who never accepted the downfall of the Soviet empire. Russia is now forced to sell oil and gas with huge price cuts, which barely covers processing costs while India and China completely suck out the last bits of life from Russia.
  6. Russians did just send a group of military personnel there not long ago, with potentially drones, supposedly to boost their drone and/or anti-air defenses.
  7. I feel like he and Carol together can really get shit done.
  8. I’m beginning to think that as well. Merry Christmas?
  9. The question is when are we going to invade? The naval blockade is in place. Trump verbally ordered their air space shut down last week or two weeks ago.
  10. We're definitely going to war. Miller is justifying it after Trump's claims: "American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property. These pillaged assets were then used to fund terrorism and flood our streets with killers, mercenaries and drugs."
  11. Junior High girls are writing descriptions in the girls bathroom of the girls they like and hate.
  12. Damn, that is a very solid example. Rorschach is the last dude you want to be trapped in a room with when he's pissed off at you. May not be the biggest dude, but resourceful and it's like taking on a badger in a confined space.
  13. Imagine if we invaded Mexico in 2022 and here at the end of 2025, Mexico is forcing the US Navy to confine their ships to New Orleans, Houston, and San Francisco because they can sink them anywhere.
  14. Definitely small dick energy.
  15. “The Ukrainian Navy, a small ragtag force of patrol boats and drones that lost its only frigate on the second day of Russia’s invasion, has effectively won the surface war on the Black Sea.”
  16. I think of the Hemingway quote, paraphrasing, "it happened slowly, then suddenly."
  17. It's a lot more than that, but it's also tough to quantify (paging @PTINS ). They are refining far less, but they are exporting far less, so they are close to staying even on being able to refine what they need internally. This is a decent breakdown. https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/10/russia-refinery-damages?lang=en That was from October, and it's safe to say their capacity has dropped a lot since then, at least temporarily. As things continue, their ability to repair refineries will drop as spare parts become scarce. Plus, when refineries are hit repeatedly, there comes a point where they may have to basically be rebuilt, which takes a long time. And you don't even have to wreck a refinery if the pipelines/pumping stations are wrecked and oil can't be moved (they can't store as much as we do). Having to export oil and then re-import the refined end-product is also telling. Ukrainian capacity to hit them hard and hit them deep is only increasing as well, both with drones, but also with their long-range missiles coming online, and Russian air defenses continue to be degraded. I don't think it was 38% (the article is probably right 38% was the upper range), but I wouldn't be surprised if it was in the 20s (only offset because they are exporting less). I don't think 2 years, but I think we will know how things will shake out over the next 6 months, because the tempo is such that Russia refining capacities are going to drop double-digits going forward and as more air defenses are destroyed/exhausted, we will see a lot more targets taken out.
  18. Germany and Poland are really ramping things up in a way that the US is not. Sweden and Finland got off the neutrality fence and did some conference realignment/expansion when they've held out for over 70 years. Various European nations and defense companies are ramping up arms production, upgrading systems, adding systems, etc. I don't think Europe is aligned with the US anymore. Trump sees this as just a real-estate deal, if Ukraine will give up some, Russia will be happy. Europe is taking the stance that it will just buy Putin time to re-arm and try and fill out the ranks.
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