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atomheartbevo

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by atomheartbevo

  1. (2) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "An approximate estimate of the financial losses of the Russian aviation sector in 2025 due to the regular implementation of the "Kover" (closure of airspace) plan during Ukrainian drone attacks, based solely on open Russian sources, could amount to about $1.6-$2.4 billion. Over https://t.co/k09cUNvIa2" / X An approximate estimate of the financial losses of the Russian aviation sector in 2025 due to the regular implementation of the "Kover" (closure of airspace) plan during Ukrainian drone attacks, based solely on open Russian sources, could amount to about $1.6-$2.4 billion. Over the first eight months of 2025, restrictions due to Ukrainian drone attacks were introduced nearly 500 times at Russian airports, according to a summary based on RBC data as of early October. Indicative daily losses for airlines during a collapse similar to the one on July 5-6 (mass closures at several key airports) "could cost airlines up to about 20 billion rubles (approximately $247 million) per day." This estimate was published by Kommersant and later echoed by Forbes and Mail.ru Finance. For example, at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport, during the first wave of closures on July 4-7 (172 flights canceled), direct losses for Pulkovo amounted to about 50-55 million rubles (approximately $617,600-$679,400). Total losses over the summer are estimated at about 100-150 million rubles ($1.24-$1.85 million), while airlines faced higher costs due to hotels, transfers, and passenger rebooking. In October, a series of simultaneous shutdowns occurred at 7-11 airports (Volgograd, Kazan, Samara, Krasnodar, Sochi, Kaluga, Yaroslavl, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk, Izhevsk, Ufa), as confirmed by Rosaviatsiya and Russian media. An average day with multiple closures (five to ten airports) is proportionally less costly - roughly about 12 billion rubles ($74.1-$148.2 million) per day for airlines (an extrapolation from a "major day," adjusted for the number of affected hubs and flights). Local or short-term closures (one to three airports for two to four hours) are estimated to cost airlines 1-3 billion rubles per day ($12.35-$37.05 million), and airports 5-30 million rubles ($61,800-$370,600), depending on traffic (extrapolated based on the Pulkovo calibration). Out of the roughly 500 incidents over ten months, only part were "major days." The estimated total losses for Russian airlines from January to October 2025 (direct and quasi-direct costs, including rebooking, meals/hotels, compensations, fuel/crew, and downtime) amounted to approximately 120–180 billion rubles ($1.48-$2.23 billion). For airports, approximate losses (non-aero + aero revenues, ground handling, parking, retail/food & beverage, and other services) amounted to about 8-15 billion rubles ($100-$186 million). In total, for the entire sector (airlines + airports), the estimated losses are around 130-195 billion rubles ($1.6-$2.4 billion) for 2025 (as of early October). These figures reflect an approximate order of magnitude derived from Russian publications and scaling.
  2. Somebody about to take a short trip out of a high window. Russian priest-monk on the realities among Russian soldiers: "There are all kinds of people [in the army]. Not everyone can be trusted. Not everyone is ready to die. Many want to survive. And those who want to survive can be very dangerous - because they can betray everyone. A person who goes to war must be humble. He must be ready to die himself, but save his comrade. That’s the only way."
  3. Russians shipping advisors and/or drones or some kind of lightweight systems (maybe MANPADs)
  4. Putin out there telling his people that things are developing favorable for the special military operation. Meanwhile, Russian governors having to explain to Russians that shits getting blown up inside of Russia.
  5. Nobody will care in the future after the age-of-consent laws are changed next year and any and all official records of Epstein are deleted because they never existed and are just a hoax created by the fake new.
  6. and these two chaps
  7. Just be careful, use latex gloves to keep your DNA away from the paper and glue, and you're good to go.
  8. It's extremely interesting to see the patterns when they launch mass attacks - clearly going around Moscow which is where much of Russia's best AD is located. To me that speaks volumes about Russia's issues with manufacturing and existing supplies and Putin's paranoia - they should have been able to park a lot more AD in those corridors, but they aren't, and they clearly aren't able to replace a lot of AD with existing stocks. And the fact that Ukraine appears to be steadily wrecking high-end air defenses in Crimea at some of the airfields and bases will probably see those aircraft moved back into Russia proper. I'm actually surprised they haven't moved all of their aircraft (minus the rotary wing) back into Russia proper, into condensed areas to save on air defense. It's going to be interesting to see where and when the breaking points are - economic (both the micro and macro level), Crimea, Moscow, Russian civilians (electricity, fuel), military resupply/transit systems, etc. We are seeing economic strain at the local level with some of the oblasts already (probably related to reduced oil & gas revenue). We've seen oil & gas strain at the local level with long lines or empty pumps.
  9. I don't know that Russia can go much farther (further!) at the current rate of attrition on their infrastructure. If more oblasts are having to cut spending, and if they can't put everything that gets wrecked in terms of oil & gas back online, it's just a matter of time. The tempo on sabotage of rail and electrical systems is also picking up.
  10. Queen Elizabeth was born in ‘26 so she couldn’t have been there.
  11. When/if the restraining order expires, I’m going to pitch Ms. Sweeney on the idea of a. Christy Canyon biopic.
  12. I would kill for Anson Mount’s hair. I mean, sure I’d be in prison, but that hair, at his age.
  13. I do not think it’s a coincidence that Ukraine has been announcing some high dollar defense contracts with European companies. Arguably the Saab fighter did make better sense than anything American, but the other contracts could have went multiple ways. We are going to get cut out of a lot of deals.
  14. Just ask Loyola University (New Orleans), a private university, about outside forces.
  15. Russia gonna Russia This morning, the Russian army struck a children’s hospital in Kherson. They could not have been unaware of where they were striking. This was a deliberate Russian attack specifically against children, against medical personnel, against basic guarantees of life in the community. The hospital sustained heavy damage, and sadly, there are injured among both the staff and the children who were being treated there. The youngest wounded child is eight years old—the boy himself was wounded, as were his mother and brother. At the moment of the strike, about a hundred people were inside the hospital. And Russia is not even ashamed to consider such facilities as targets. Russia is now the largest terrorist organization in the world, which is not only dragging out its terrorist war but also trying to do everything possible to ensure that no opportunity to end the war succeeds. Russia deliberately undermines every meaningful diplomatic effort, discredits those helping to protect life, and seeks to create new sources of destabilization in Europe to make it harder for Europeans to assist Ukraine. And this year, as the United States has made such significant efforts to end the war, the Russians have only increased the audacity and scale of their strikes. Nothing convinces Russia except pressure and strength. America’s recent step was the right one—substantial sanctions against Russian oil companies. Such measures must continue—to rein in Russia’s brazenness, deprive it of the means to prolong the war, and create a real motive for Moscow to end this war. Terrorists must be dealt with only as they deserve—with strength and just treatment. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! ----- I think Ukraine's tactical sanctions against Russian oil companies is going to be what really pays off.
  16. @PTINS they just keep on keeping on putting pressure on the system. 2 refineries, 1 gas plant, 1 fuel depot, 1 chemical plant, and a power substation.
  17. Yeah, "outside political forces" are just waiting for some snowflake student to post a video about some professor so they can swoop in and get some attention and drama.
  18. It's been coming for weeks now - Ukrainian forces are outnumbered anywhere from 5 up to 8-to-1. It's one of the places that Ukraine has been using to kill a lot of Russians and destroy a lot of Russian vehicles. It's going to be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. They've tied up something like 10,000 - 15,000 Russian troops there, and wiped out a lot of mobile troops.
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