Where we are now and what can we expect in the coming months within the context of Russia's war in Ukraine:
◾️Ukraine and the world continue to await tensely for the results of the US elections.
In the meantime, Ukraine and Russia continue active diplomatic actions to consolidate support for their allies.
◾️ Russia's primary focus is on discrediting Ukraine in the West, dividing our allies, and interfering in the US elections to divide Americans and increase instability.
◾️ During his visit to the US, President Zelensky met with President Biden and had meetings with presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
◾️ Ukraine continues to destroy Russian military depots and military logistics; Ukraine produces its own drones and other weapons.
◾️ Russia increases its weapons and drones production as much as it can, despite sanctions. It uses weapons supplied by Russian allies - Iran and North Korea. There are reports that production of Russian Shahed drones has exceeded Russian original plans.
◾️ Russia is intensifying its strikes on Ukrainian cities, deliberately targeting apartment blocks, hospitals, and nursing homes. Its main purpose is to cause as much panic as possible, intimidate Ukrainians, and force them to leave their lands and homes. Strikes are unfortunately likely to continue, especially for Sumy and Kharkiv. Zaporizhzhia is now within the range of Russian KAB bombs, so it is likely to be under constant strikes as well.
◾️Despite the lack of "cannon fodder", Putin doesn't dare yet to announce open mobilization in Russia and increases hidden mobilization instead: increases payments for signing army contracts and recruits soldiers from other countries, including countries of Africa. Russia is increasing its presence there at an alarming rate which is very dangerous for this region.
◾️ In the coming month, the Russians will probably try to solve the "Kursk issue" at any cost. The "deadline" is likely set before the US elections at most but a desirable timeline for them is before the BRICS summit in Kazan (22-24 October) - to demonstrate to the BRICS guests that Russia is in control of the situation and is a serious partner. Otherwise, the situation when a part of Russia's territory is under Ukrainian control (when Putin had the intention to capture Ukraine "in three days" almost three years ago), is rather humiliating for Russia.
During August and September, Russians have accumulated forces, have reformed and will now try to counterattack our troops.
How the situation in Kursk region will develop depends on many factors and on the decisions that AFU leaders will make.
◾️ One of the key elements of these upcoming months are the elections in Moldova and Georgia at the end of October, where the influence of Russia and pro-Russian forces is enormous.
◾️We are likely to hear increased nuclear threats and other escalation rhetoric from Russia.
◾️Ukraine will face further problems due to electricity shortage.
◾️ Due to the escalation in the Middle East and the US elections, Ukraine is fading from the information field, which Russia is actively using, knowing that its crimes against Ukrainian civilians will not make the headlines in the Western media. Accordingly, many people outside Ukraine have the impression that the situation is getting better. But this is not the case at all: the situation is very tough and complicated. And it will continue to get worse.
The largest war in Europe since the Second World War continues to rage on. The whole world is waiting for the US elections.
The situation of strategic uncertainty will last at least until November.
It is crucial to go through this period with a cool head, keeping the focus on Ukraine and showing Russia that the West does not withdraw its support.
I'd like to end with a reminder of these Putin's words, which he said in June 2024. Nothing has changed for him: he intends to wage a war until the end. And it must become his own end.
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I highlighted a few things, but I think the big thing out of all of that, is Putin has to do something to get Ukraine out of Kursk. It's almost October.If he heads into the 3rd anniversary next February with a sizable chunk of Russian territory under Ukrainian control, well hell, I'm not even sure how the nightly talking heads can continue to shape that over the next two months. In recent weeks we've seen them go back and forth on what to do, and given that they are there at Putin's behest, and are supposed to reflect his views and/or be playing to him. It's almost schizophrenic the way they are handling this in the evening shows. I get that some of those talking heads are deliberately playing devil's advocate and that this is a long-time Russian behavior, but it's got to wear down whatever audience is still around.