The "look around you" test is most telling to me. I've finally seen a few signs and flags out in rural areas where there had been none (but had been in 2020), but it's nowhere near 2020 levels or even 2016 levels. I've even seen a few come down for some reason (I'd like to think embarrassment).
What's still more surprising to me is I'm seeing very few MAGA relatives/acquaintances with that stupid fucking hat or other Trump apparel, and they aren't sticking flags or bumper stickers on their cars like they were in 2020, and they aren't being very proactive on their Facebook pages. Occasionally I'll see some anti-Harris stuff, and maybe something that was attributed to Trump, and some thoughts and prayers posts after the assassination attempt and then whatever happened on Sunday. But I don't seem them rushing out there to social media defend Trump over the blatant racism, I don't see them promoting Vance at all, and it's just not the echo chamber it was in 2020.
Purely anecdotal, but it seems like Trump has changed in the eyes of at least some of them.
Maybe they will still vote, but if they aren't enthusiastic enough right now, to do as something as simple as repost the latest pro-Trump memes on Facebook, I can't see them wanting to waste a day of PTO or a long lunch hour to go vote for him..