Chuckie Finster

The funny thing about building a "convention bump" into your model is that there actually has to be a convention bump. If Harris continues to receive positive polls when the model is saying the bump should have worn off, then that chart will continue to quickly and rapidly correct itself. (As most everyone predicted would happen.)

Donald Trump got more votes in California than any other state. Logically it makes sense, but I think people tend to forget about how many fucking people live in these big states. Even a 60/40 Dem split is a fuckton of MAGA.

Really shameless, even for Ted.

Nate Silver is no longer with 538. In fact, I am convinced their rosy forecast for Kamala is one of the largest driving factors behind him doing… whatever the fuck he’s doing now.

I'm more and more convinced this is a must for the campaign. Rogan/Theo/etc. are not combative interviewers, it will not be a trap. Like many have said previously, the goal isn't necessarily to win their vote (although I do think there's a possibility of that happening in non-negligible numbers) it's to convince them that Kamala winning isn't some country-ending scenario. When you continue to allow your enemy to define you to a specific demographic with no pushback, then you cannot be surprised when they believe it.

I’m telling you, both of them with Rogan or Theo or one of the other right-leaning but not explicitly Republican podcasts would have a higher potential rate of return than almost anything else they could do.

Nate in shambles

Aside from a UFC fight or NASCAR race, this is probably the friendliest environment imaginable for him.

Has nothing to do with logic and everything to do with a constant need to feel victimized. Understand aggy and you understand the modern day Republican Party.

Insisting that the 5-star, former fan-favorite QB is still the starter would be the absolute funniest way for a new head coach to lose his fanbase.

Didn't they spot this dude multiple holes ahead and stop him before he ever had the chance to do anything? I know we live in a world of black and white with no room for any gray, but seems pretty straightforward that they did exactly what they should have done here.

Alternate Translation: Kamala wins the vast majority of scenarios where she wins the popular vote, which means my model showing Trump as the favorite contains a significant number of Trump winning the popular vote scenarios. Seems likely.

Vibes are way off right now.

For a country as gun-obsessed as ours, our assassins have really terrible aim.

Yet another example of the ramifications of the dangerous policies implemented in liberal-run states like *checks notes* Florida.

So we absolutely should dunk on Frank because obviously more publicity for this dunce is a net negative for his campaign and there is not a single undecided voter in America who cares about Sunday morning news shows. That being said, there seems to be strong evidence that the more the American people see Kamala and Tim, the more they like them. Some more interviews (not on Sunday morning, who gives a fuck about those) wouldn't be a bad thing. I'll probably get killed for this thought, but I actually think going on something like Rogan wouldn't be a bad idea. He's not a hostile interviewer, he's just dumb as a box of rocks and tends to go along with whatever his guest says. I honestly think holding a conversation and showing that they are both normal and not the caricature currently being painted could be very strategically effective. Might not win a single vote, but might convince some folks that it wouldn't be an existential crisis if they win. Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

There's a handful of these accounts that randomly post videos from months/years prior without any indication that they are old. Very annoying.

"Creating stories" is gonna stick in a bad way for that campaign.

Taking away his Tuesday night dinner is harsh, but I'll allow it

It should be a bigger story that all of these third party candidates are coincidentally represented by conservative lawyers.

I know someone who named their new baby Melania a few years ago. Tempted to ask when they’re planning to change her name to Laura.