berlinerbaer

Yes they did

I wonder if there is any amount the Russians can offer the rebels to allow them to stay. If the new leadership truly is open to friendship with Israel, then they should be with Russia as well, for a price. Russia really needs those bases.

We all are to blame. I remember those announcements for "[Ethnicity] [Gender] for Kamala" fundraising get-togethers on Zoom and just shook my head. I never joined any of them, but was there any strategic reason for the divisions? Like training on how to persuade your white male friends into voting for her? It was just another chance for the campaign and the base to give each other reach-arounds over how big the tent supposedly was. And yet, posters on this board loved that shit. "Oooh, my turn's coming up!" Why not "Pennsylvanians for Kamala" or "Georgians for Kamala." At least that would have made some electoral sense.

He won’t feel the need to seize power unless it’s under threat, meaning things have gone off the rails and ordinary people may not feel like being passive. Plus, if traditional protests turn violent, striking is a much safer form of protest that can be done by a far larger number of people. If Trump just grifts for 4 years then I agree. Sucks that that is the best case scenario.

What I found notable about the SK protests was that the doctors had gone on strike. Doctors. What a powerful weapon that is. The trade unions were planning strikes the next day. We all need to ask ourselves what we’d do if dipshit attempts a power grab. I consider myself difficult to replace at my work and I would entertain the notion of a general strike. Money talks and when corps can’t make it, they’ll pull the plug on any serious shenanigans. And yes, protest also works if they are widespread.

Ben Wikler announced his candidacy for DNC chair today, and he is really impressive. He's led the Wisconsin Democrats since 2019 and helped bring the party back from the brink in that state. Most notably, WI Democrats flipped the state supreme court and unfucked the GOP gerrymander that was in place. Yes, Trump just won there but WI was the bluest of the 7 swing states, Tammy Baldwin won reelection, and the GOP supermajority in the state leg just got broken. He also knows media., working as a producer for Move On, Al Franken's gig, and a writer for The Onion. Yes, The Onion. Jamie Harrison's only claim to fame was raising a boatload of cash to ultimately lose to Lady G by 10 points. Ken Martin, who has led the Minnesota party, is also a strong candidate.

I'm looking for tiny wins and y'all can pry this one from my cold dead hands. Fuck Gaetz and fuck Trump 2.0

I'm done with doom scrolling, that's for sure, but I'm not disengaging entirely. I want to get more involved in-person rather than in front of a screen, although I'm not sure exactly what that means yet.

Commanders

For those who are superstitious, the Commanders won today.

Top line for PA: Even For reference, the actual VBM partisan split in PA as of this Monday is 58-31-10 D-R-I. Giving the GOP all the indies, and assuming no other partisan switching makes it 58-41. This poll clearly seems to have oversampled Republicans. MOE of 9% though, so small sample size of like 100.

SIAP. Apparently a CNN poll from today has Harris +1 in AZ with 55% of poll respondents saying they already voted, with Harris leading among the early voters 53 - 44, even though most of them were Republican. If accurate, then this thing's all over but the shenanigans. They polled Nevada also and had Trump +1 overall and up 52 - 46 in the already voted category, which was only 42% of respondents. That corroborates the current GOP lead we see there but suggests a lot more of the vote is outstanding. I couldn't find the early voter respondent data but the numbers are in the CNN article. https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25257085/cnn-polls-harris-and-trump-locked-in-close-races-in-arizona-and-nevada-as-pool-of-persuadable-voters-shrinks.pdf https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris/index.html

Yeah there was this whole thing with the Cheneys a couple of weeks back that we don't need to revisit.

I think the breakdown of newer voters in GA can tell us where the newer voters are coming from or how old they are, but not both. My somewhat pessimistic best guess is that they are recent arrivals from other states, retirees probably like elsewhere in the Sunbelt, and likely leaning Trump. The silver lining is that some of them are leaving the northern swing states and making them bluer.

The margin of error reported by polls is just the pure random statistical error, which is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. I agree that it's conveniently small compared to how far off many polls are. Where most polls screw up is with the systematic error: unrepresentative sampling, wonky weighting, incorrect expectations of voting behavior, etc. To play devil's advocate, thought, there is no way to measure this error mathematically, so pollsters report the only error they can measure quantitatively.