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We have no way of knowing when the current political environment will end until it finally does.
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Government Shutdown 2025: This Time It’s Personal
berlinerbaer replied to Bozo_Casanova's topic in Cloak Room
Off topic but I’m not sure why you’re shitting on Liz Warren. -
We all like Jimmy a lot but have differing outlooks on his chances. Seeing you on here gives me hope he’s connecting with a new cohort of independent voters. We’re still over a year away but I think his campaign is off to a great start. I think he’ll win the primary. The base will get on their phones and door knock their neighborhoods for him next year. The post up thread about his framing of the issues as The 1% versus the rest of us was spot on. I think that will speak volumes next year when the economy is in the shitter. He has a winning message.
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I applaud the OP for starting one of the most useful threads on this forum in the last 11 months. Hopefully, we'll see some ideas. Short term: get to the protests on Oct 18 and wean yourselves off of corporate media as best you can. Medium term: take the 2026 primary elections seriously. Lots of Dems need to be shown the door. They are likely to take back the House and we need some real fighters who aren't afraid to wield power. Yes, the people have been able to kick Authoritarianism aside may times, but we're not there yet. A popular leader is needed to put it into place. Hugo Chavez had a sky high approval rating during his first few years as president of Venezuela and used it to overhaul the constitution. If Trump ushers this country into Authoritarianism, it may be a first as unpopular as he is.
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Fuck you all. I tossed Jimmy $50 and I’ll be door-knocking this time next year, just like I did back in ‘18.
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Beto ran a superb campaign on the ground of thousands of volunteers. That is why he came within 2 points of knocking off Ted. Allred ran jack shit other than a money raising machine. There were activists clamoring for something to do last fall who were ignored, or just told to donate more. Talarico will more effectively employ volunteers than Allred did. Maybe not Beto levels, but I suspect he will let the organizers organize. This applies to the Democratic party as a whole. They are told by their donors to do politics with one hand tied behind their back.
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A multitude of Christian organizations are suing DHS for conducting ICE raids in places of worship. You aren't hearing about this because the media is in Trump's pocket. Do some research before you accuse anyone or a group of people of inaction. https://democracyforward.org/updates/houses-of-worship/ It's a start, and it's significant if you step back and look.
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Not a surprise coming from Schumer who has been in Congress forever, but Jeffries is a colossal disappointment. There has to be some struggling bartender in the NY-8th that can primary him...
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Allred gets a primary challenger! Terry Virts Former Air Force, former astronaut. Seems centristy. There's some canned messaging mixed in with a little edginess. 5 out of 10. Yawn OK
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I can't possibly be the biggest hater out there.
berlinerbaer replied to The Original Greaser Bob's topic in Cloak Room
The rightward shift from 2020 to 2024 in the swing states was less, at 3 - 4 points, than it was in the rest of the country (more like 6 - 7). That doesn't point to any tampering. -
Yes, it's true. There are only so many R voters and they are being drawn out of safe R districts to flip safe D districts. There is a lot of predicted light pink within the rural parts of the triangle/central TX right now when before it was all ruby red. I've seen serious analysis that shows only 3 of the 5 Republican gains are likely to pan out. They made the error in fully flipping Casar, Green's, and a rep by Dallas' seats (not Crockett) but just barely nudged Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez's seats rightward, even though those two are probably the most difficult to dislodge. Team Turnip honestly believes their gains with Latinos will stick, so they didn't think they needed to mess with South Texas much. Trump won both of those seats while the Dem reps both won by several points. In a likely 2026 environment, with an 8 - 10 point R to D swing, they likely stay blue. That says nothing about the rest of the state, where the R vote is being spread out to attack those three deep blue seats. Surprises are possible. Meanwhile, if it comes to pass, the 5 flips from R to D targeted in California are highly likely to play out.
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The truth is on our side. We don't need to lie.
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Looks like I'm wrong and CA voters would pass a mid-decade gerrymander according to a poll done by a TV station in Sacramento.
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I don't like seeing this thread bumped.
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Most blue states have independent commissions. Most red states and many purple states do not. If the commissions went away, the Dems would net a bunch of seats. Everyone is talking about California, but I think eliminating the commission in CA requires a ballot measure because it was enacted by ballot measure and a change in the state constitution. It's not a given that the voters will repeal it, since it's the kind of thing only partisan Dems would vote for. The few Dem states that do gerrymander (NY, IL, MD) will need to go hard to the paint, as will the few more that have commissions set up by laws that can be repealed by the legislature. I don't think CA is the way.
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