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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. berlinerbaer
    Commanders
  2. berlinerbaer
    For those who are superstitious, the Commanders won today.
  3. berlinerbaer
    Top line for PA: Even For reference, the actual VBM partisan split in PA as of this Monday is 58-31-10 D-R-I. Giving the GOP all the indies, and assuming no other partisan switching makes it 58-41. This poll clearly seems to have oversampled Republicans. MOE of 9% though, so small sample size of like 100.
  4. berlinerbaer
    SIAP. Apparently a CNN poll from today has Harris +1 in AZ with 55% of poll respondents saying they already voted, with Harris leading among the early voters 53 - 44, even though most of them were Republican. If accurate, then this thing's all over but the shenanigans. They polled Nevada also and had Trump +1 overall and up 52 - 46 in the already voted category, which was only 42% of respondents. That corroborates the current GOP lead we see there but suggests a lot more of the vote is outstanding. I couldn't find the early voter respondent data but the numbers are in the CNN article. https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25257085/cnn-polls-harris-and-trump-locked-in-close-races-in-arizona-and-nevada-as-pool-of-persuadable-voters-shrinks.pdf https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris/index.html
  5. berlinerbaer
    Yeah there was this whole thing with the Cheneys a couple of weeks back that we don't need to revisit.
  6. berlinerbaer
    I think the breakdown of newer voters in GA can tell us where the newer voters are coming from or how old they are, but not both. My somewhat pessimistic best guess is that they are recent arrivals from other states, retirees probably like elsewhere in the Sunbelt, and likely leaning Trump. The silver lining is that some of them are leaving the northern swing states and making them bluer.
  7. berlinerbaer
    The margin of error reported by polls is just the pure random statistical error, which is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. I agree that it's conveniently small compared to how far off many polls are. Where most polls screw up is with the systematic error: unrepresentative sampling, wonky weighting, incorrect expectations of voting behavior, etc. To play devil's advocate, thought, there is no way to measure this error mathematically, so pollsters report the only error they can measure quantitatively.
  8. berlinerbaer
    It seems Dems are crushing the mail-in vote in PA and elsewhere. Then I keep hearing that the Rs are keeping pace or even leading with early in-person voting. So is the partisan discrepancy more between mail vs. in-person than it is early vs. Election Day? Where that discrepancy lies will be the difference between a close race and Harris blowing Trump out a la Fetterman - Oz.
  9. berlinerbaer
  10. berlinerbaer
    Was that tweet from earlier today about the "found" Democratic votes in Nevada legit? I haven't heard it reported elsewhere.
  11. berlinerbaer
    Bruh
  12. berlinerbaer
    Just got back from doing my part. Fuck Trump!
  13. berlinerbaer
    That shrinking Dem reg advantage got a massive shot in the arm back in July, and those new registrants are going to vote bigly for Kamala.
  14. berlinerbaer
    Mad lib time! I find it weirdly __________ that Democrats might lock up PA before most Texans have a chance to even cast a ballot. amusing, fascinating, infuriating
  15. berlinerbaer
    Agreed. I cringed when she gave a shout-out to Dick at that rally. Nobody likes Dick Cheney and all Democrats HATE him. Unforced error.
  16. berlinerbaer
    Umm…
  17. berlinerbaer
    How the hell did we lose to FSU?
  18. berlinerbaer
    Don't care, had Game DEI
  19. berlinerbaer
    Some candidates are just good at raising money on their own. I don't know how easy those funds can be transferred to other campaigns and wouldn't assume big numbers in some places mean the national party is hanging some candidates out to dry. Gallego comes to mind. He's ahead like +10 in the polls and doesn't need $35M, but people are still opening their wallets for him.
  20. berlinerbaer
    The Pac had rules against placing the visitors next to the students. The ACC does not. I'll know the university is taking football seriously if the students are coached into turning this into home field advantage instead of just moving the away team, which I fully expect.
  21. berlinerbaer
    That poll is 100% bullshit. It's hard enough nowadays to poll enough voters for any candidate to get a MOE of 2%. That would require hundreds if not > 1000 respondents. There is no way they got that many RFK voters to respond. This has to be a crosstab of a general election poll with like 50 RFK voters, in which case the MOE is greater than 20%.
  22. berlinerbaer
    That's about one volunteer for every 200 - 300 voters in the LV metro area. That's A LOT of phone calls and door knocks between now and November.
  23. berlinerbaer
    No question Obama's was bigger, but his movement grew in spite of, or probably because of its independence from the Democratic party. This did not help the party post-ACA. Harris and Walz are not outsiders or newcomers to the Democratic party. The groundswell of support they are attracting should help the party going forward. Although it doesn't feel as unique and powerful as Obama '08 felt to me, this campaign and the administration that should come in 2025 will likely be far more consequential than Obama's. Harris also didn't have to win a grueling primary to get the nomination, unlike Obama having to go through Hillary. '08 seemed fun at the time but it really left some real damage in the party, if we are being honest with ourselves.
  24. berlinerbaer
    Should have just swung for the fences with Kamablablah or Kamablablablah
  25. berlinerbaer
    Then they need to quit being pussies and endorse her.

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