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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Fuck you all. I tossed Jimmy $50 and I’ll be door-knocking this time next year, just like I did back in ‘18.
  2. Beto ran a superb campaign on the ground of thousands of volunteers. That is why he came within 2 points of knocking off Ted. Allred ran jack shit other than a money raising machine. There were activists clamoring for something to do last fall who were ignored, or just told to donate more. Talarico will more effectively employ volunteers than Allred did. Maybe not Beto levels, but I suspect he will let the organizers organize. This applies to the Democratic party as a whole. They are told by their donors to do politics with one hand tied behind their back.
  3. A multitude of Christian organizations are suing DHS for conducting ICE raids in places of worship. You aren't hearing about this because the media is in Trump's pocket. Do some research before you accuse anyone or a group of people of inaction. https://democracyforward.org/updates/houses-of-worship/ It's a start, and it's significant if you step back and look.
  4. Not a surprise coming from Schumer who has been in Congress forever, but Jeffries is a colossal disappointment. There has to be some struggling bartender in the NY-8th that can primary him...
  5. Allred gets a primary challenger! Terry Virts Former Air Force, former astronaut. Seems centristy. There's some canned messaging mixed in with a little edginess. 5 out of 10. Yawn OK
  6. The rightward shift from 2020 to 2024 in the swing states was less, at 3 - 4 points, than it was in the rest of the country (more like 6 - 7). That doesn't point to any tampering.
  7. Yes, it's true. There are only so many R voters and they are being drawn out of safe R districts to flip safe D districts. There is a lot of predicted light pink within the rural parts of the triangle/central TX right now when before it was all ruby red. I've seen serious analysis that shows only 3 of the 5 Republican gains are likely to pan out. They made the error in fully flipping Casar, Green's, and a rep by Dallas' seats (not Crockett) but just barely nudged Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez's seats rightward, even though those two are probably the most difficult to dislodge. Team Turnip honestly believes their gains with Latinos will stick, so they didn't think they needed to mess with South Texas much. Trump won both of those seats while the Dem reps both won by several points. In a likely 2026 environment, with an 8 - 10 point R to D swing, they likely stay blue. That says nothing about the rest of the state, where the R vote is being spread out to attack those three deep blue seats. Surprises are possible. Meanwhile, if it comes to pass, the 5 flips from R to D targeted in California are highly likely to play out.
  8. The truth is on our side. We don't need to lie.
  9. Looks like I'm wrong and CA voters would pass a mid-decade gerrymander according to a poll done by a TV station in Sacramento.
  10. I don't like seeing this thread bumped.
  11. Most blue states have independent commissions. Most red states and many purple states do not. If the commissions went away, the Dems would net a bunch of seats. Everyone is talking about California, but I think eliminating the commission in CA requires a ballot measure because it was enacted by ballot measure and a change in the state constitution. It's not a given that the voters will repeal it, since it's the kind of thing only partisan Dems would vote for. The few Dem states that do gerrymander (NY, IL, MD) will need to go hard to the paint, as will the few more that have commissions set up by laws that can be repealed by the legislature. I don't think CA is the way.
  12. Word is they are assuming 2024 voting patterns to get to a +5 R pickup. Edit: He meant 5ish seats in 2024, not 2026.
  13. We don’t need a third party. We just need one party to have serious primary challengers next year. I think there is enough anger within the Dem base for it to happen. We can’t just accept whomever the Party anoints. Looking at you, Colin.
  14. I believe Texas law forbids counties of low population from being cracked open. This map shouldn't fly for that reason. https://redistricting.capitol.texas.gov/reqs That being said, rule 3 is violated all the time.
  15. I and maybe thousands of others have had this exact quote written on a sign over the past few months. I think Texas Dems are starting to get with it. This is exhibit A. Exhibit B is the Dems making a spectacle out of the upcoming redistricting hearings this Saturday. Nothing to lose
  16. Texas Dems are holding a rally right before the Texas House public hearings on redistricting are supposed to be held in the same general area. Are they learning?
  17. Try to show up if you can. Edit: More details regarding venues to come...
  18. It's early but Jon Ossoff is running way ahead of likely Republican challengers, both in fundraising and polling. Kemp declined to run against him. If he's at 49% with 10% undecided, in a R pollster, this thing is over.
  19. It’s white privilege in a nutshell
  20. All of this. The AI provision banning any regulation for a decade was also scrapped. Maybe responsible governance can address that shit 4 years from now. The Dems need to take the House in 2026 and play hardball with the budget and try to chip away at the edges of this monstrosity.
  21. Yes. Politics is performative. I’d rather the Dems play the game to win if that is how it’s done. He gets a C-/D+ for the semester. At least a damn good final exam score kept him from failing outright.
  22. If this bill can undo prior legislation then there is no reason a future bill couldn’t undo this one.
  23. Yes, on the north side of the highway but out of view. You can see some signs of construction if you look across the airport after passing hwy 6. That's her. In the run-off we were stuck between choosing her or this guy. I'm sorry. Can't trust cowboy hats here in the suburbs.
  24. There are (were?) plans to build a gas power plant here in Sugar Land city limits, by the airport. I have been aware of petitions that have been going around, and the issue came up in the local mayoral and city council elections last month. The anointed candidate ended up losing the mayoral race to some current council member known locally as "Ms. No" who literally is against everything. I went along with the fervor even though I reflexively dislike NIMBYism and have been telling people I know that this is a problem at the state, and now federal level, and not a local issue. But after this bullshit, turns out the NIMBYs were right all along, and a new strategy needs to emerge where the fight occurs at the local level. In my dream, it would also entail neighboring communities helping each other out to the point of encompassing the entire state. People are waking the fuck up.
  25. YES, the pressure actually worked. I am very much relieved and energized this morning to read this after going to bed last night fearing the worst! And you know what? This bill isn't done yet. It now goes back to the House where they'll need to iron out the differences. For starters, the House bill cut $800B from Medicaid. The Senate version cuts $1 trillion AND MAKES CUTS TO MEDICARE. Yes, Medicare. For old people. Retirees. What that means is that some chickenshit GOP reps who were counting on the Senate being the sane ones and watering this thing down somewhat, as is usually the case, now need to start feeling the heat from their constituents. This is probably not something they are normally used to, as this third rail of American politics has never been touched. People need to get on the fucking phone and call their reps. Call their Senators too. If nothing else, make their staffers walk into work Monday morning with hundreds of messages on voicemail. (202) 224-3121 gets to the congressional switchboard. They will connect you directly with your rep's or senator's office if you don't want to find the number directly.
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