berlinerbaer

Welp. We got one solid quarter and now more shit.

* Missoula

We look good on both sides of the ball. I don't care if it's against a MW team, I haven't been able to say that in years.

Who had Washington losing to Montana on their picks?

UCLA looks like they're sending in the whole front 7 every play.

It was fucking hot last week and it's fucking hot today. Not surprised that Bruin fans are staying away. There is zero shade in that place. There should be quite a few UCLA late arrivals this evening. It should look decent on TV by the 2nd half.

The maps in 2022 will be much better than they were in 2012, yes, but will they be better than in 2020?

I'm a huge math and geography fan too, fellas, but I don't think that is going to spell trouble for Democrats in 2022. My interest is instead on the polls, which look increasingly "midterm-like" for the Democrats. If the generic ballot is neutral or even D+2 or so, then the fairest maps in the world will still hand the GOP the House next cycle.

Unified government is rare. The Rs had it from 2003-2007 only because 9/11 fallout made the 2002 midterm atypically good for the party in the WH. That was the first time either party had it for more than two years since 1981. Before that, you need to go back to the 60s. So every 20 years or so is the norm, not every decade like we've become accustomed. The Dems need to take advantage of the next 15 months or FAAFO.

Allegiances in Afghanistan are remarkably fluid and have been so at least since the Soviet War. We didn't seem to take this much into account over the course of our 20 year war. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/16/afghanistan-history-taliban-collapse-504977

Probably a dumb question that has been answered already, but how can the Taliban identify people who supported us? Is there some kind of national registry of interpreters? Are they flying American flags in their front yard? Are people getting doxed on social media? Do they just assume that people who left the country did to avoid capture and then go after their families? Is there an accurate census of where people are living and is there information therein about their occupation or past work history? I did read that State and the DoD have been scrubbing names and photos the past several days from websites and online registries to protect these people, so I'm sure that's a clue. I'd think that many of the people who cooperated during the occupation should be able to hide away. https://thehill.com/policy/international/568252-us-agencies-purge-websites-of-content-that-could-endanger-afghans

My son's kindergarten class has had two confirmed cases since school started last Wednesday. Yesterday, we got a call from the nurse that he is a close contact with the second case, which happened on Monday. He will be getting tested Saturday. We thought about pulling him but it sounds like other parents are doing that so his class is down to about 60% capacity, which seems safer. With remote learning starting next week, we should expect smaller class sizes going forward. He is a pro at mask wearing, which helps us feel a lot better. Daughter is one of only 4 kids in her daycare class. I'm not concerned about her. We are supposed to go to a cousin's wedding in Wisconsin next week. If the test comes back negative and there are no more close contacts until then, we've decided to make the trip. Getting the hell out of Texas is my main rationale. What is the best way to test a five year-old? My wife and I want to take the rapid test that's now available before the trip. Anyone have experience with those?

Sausage fest

This ain't the Paris climate deal, bro. Scrapping this one means the Taliban starts sending hails of bullets at our people and puts some of them in Arlington. It's easy to forget that foreign parties negotiate with the United States, not just with Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

I'm convinced that third country would have been Pakistan. Fuck Bush, but I would have rejected that offer too.

Naw. Americans still don't care about foreign policy for the most part.

Yeah, I'd be shocked if Biden didn't make a stop in CA before this is all over. Hell, I think he should do a mini tour of the state. Everyone's approval rating is taking a Delta-related hit right now: Desantis, Biden, probably even Abbott. But unfortunately for Newsom, only he is up for recall. He mandated facemasks and several local jurisdictions went further. Trumpkins are pissed. The fact is that this recall will be closer than it should be. I fully expect it to be closer than the governor elections in Virginia because McAuliffe won't have suffered through Covid blowback as an incumbent. Homework assignment to ask my parents which way they're leaning. The ridiculous thing is that CA is going to do this all over again for the regularly scheduled election next year, and the Dem will be a lock. A Republican sneaking into the governorship for 16 months isn't going to move the needle at all in CA policy-wise (Dem lockdown in the leg and all other statewide positions), but fuck if I want to hear any GOP crowing. A silver lining: I expect a proposition banning recall elections to be on the ballot soon.

In a visit with a friend in 2012, I had a long chat with a young active duty marine who her younger sister had recently eloped with. The dude was kind of a bum and a weirdo for sure, but what he said about his tours in Iraq and Afghanistan have since been prophetic to me. He swore that the Iraqis would fight alongside the Americans when they came under attack, while the Afghans would drop their weapons and retreat when things got too hot. Fast forward almost a decade and the Iraqis have since driven ISIS out of their country, admittedly under cover of US airstrikes and special forces, but the Afghan army is now literally melting away despite there still being a few thousand US troops there and the same degree of air support. The fact is that the 20 years of nation building we've payed billions for haven't convinced Afghans to risk their skin to protect it. A soldier deserting their post in the middle of the night doesn't feel compelled to fight for the generation of girls who have been able to go to school, to speak nothing of their government. There isn't much inspiration in defending what an occupying force has constructed. Let's look at morale. While one side is deserting, the other is sending suicide bombers. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/06/afghanistan-war-malkasian-book-excerpt-497843

My son started his first day of Kindergarten today. This afternoon we all got an email from the principal that 4 "individuals of the ____ community" have tested positive. Already. What I don't understand and what I probably won't be able to figure out is if these people set foot on campus in the last couple of days. Possibly, since there was a meet the teacher on Monday. My son is super excited about starting school and we want him to do in-person learning. I doubt we could swing home schooling or remote learning. Even if we did, it's not available until two weeks from now, so lots of FAAFO between now and then. The emotional roller coaster between watching him start this next chapter in his life and worrying about his health is jarring. We are supposed to go to a wedding up in Wisconsin at the end of the month. We have been thinking of pulling the plug on that, but by some twisted irony it may be good to get out of the hot zone that is Texas if only temporarily.

Agree on Stanford. Cal has massive debt to pay off from their stadium renovation (a few $100 million) so that they will jump through whatever hoops necessary for cash. If it wasn't for that, they'd also settle for relegation without putting up a fight.

Shit Was D+9 in May

Joe has always had the acid tongue. It's just returned after an 18 month hiatus.

This reminds me of the controversy Klinsmann got after cutting Donovan leading up to the 2014 WC. But did he replace Donovan with Wondo or Green?