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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. berlinerbaer
    This is news to me TBH. I don't really have any opinion of him either way. The Cal forums are silent on the move so far also. I'm sure he's fine. Probably just Sark wanting people he knows on staff, and Cal won't outbid Texas.
  2. berlinerbaer
  3. berlinerbaer
    The polls didn't include all democratic candidates as options. They took some votes away from Warnock.
  4. berlinerbaer
    161,000 new cases reported in Texas yesterday. Obviously a backlog, but WTF? Travis, Dallas, and other counties all in on the massive dump.
  5. berlinerbaer
  6. berlinerbaer
    Colorado USC Washington Stanford UCLA Oregon State Oregon Cal Arizona State Utah Washington State Arizona
  7. berlinerbaer
    I care about Trump ripping off taxpayers more broadly to fund his golf trips or stays at his properties for close personal friends. I do not care about him or the GOP ripping off their supporters. They're all either complicit or idiots, or both. Tell me why I'm wrong.
  8. berlinerbaer
    You misread the tweet. It had Perdue up 3 (not Ossoff) in October and he finished ahead by almost 2 in the end. That's only off by 1, not 5. That's dead accurate for a poll by 2020 standards. I'd question the poll for other reasons like only sampling +500, and sampling all adults (A) instead of likely or even registered voters. You'd have a good argument if you said the poll just got lucky. Then again, the polls collectively were all pretty good in GA this go-around.
  9. berlinerbaer
    Antibodies don't circulate in the blood very long. The B-cell line would be all that is left after 11 months, and I don't think there is a test for that.
  10. berlinerbaer
    Sure, I'll give him and his administration credit. This operation was clearly staffed with competent people. That is saying something. Which makes it all the more mind bottling why he didn't spill the beans before the election and brag about The Best Vaccines! at all his rallies and to anyone on cable news who would listen. It's like he chose this issue as his one and only one to shut the fuck up about, and now he's out of a job. Instead he categorically downplayed the pandemic AND the response, both good and bad, and even went and got his stupid ass sick. I mean, God damn... His skepticism of science really isn't an act.
  11. berlinerbaer
    Cal up 7-3 at the start of the 2nd in the least attended Big Game of all time. Fox
  12. berlinerbaer
    wat I didn't even know Cal played which is probably for the best.
  13. berlinerbaer
    Anyone who wants divided government will just vote Perdue-Loeffler and not even mess around with getting the Dems one seat closer to 50. There will be minimal party crossover between the two races.
  14. berlinerbaer
    Right now, this fighting can still exist mostly behind the scenes since there won't be major legislation argued over without Senate control. If the two GA senate seats go for the Dems, then shit gets real.
  15. berlinerbaer
    I was talking to a couple of coworkers about the election on Thursday morning, one of whom is for sure a Trumper but tries to downplay it. Things started normal until he brought up the sharpies and the fraud. It actually seems like I had some success with him just by sticking to what even most Trump supporters know about the man: that he's a total clown. That even Trump appointee judges weren't going to deal with his bullshit in their courtrooms. I stayed away from any mention of "fairness" or identity politics that would immediately out me as a lib. Success in this case means I got him to quit arguing and just say something like "Well I just hope it's all over soon!" Yeah, man, so do I.
  16. berlinerbaer
    Both Cal and Utah had to cancel their scheduled games against Washington and Arizona yesterday due to Covid and the resulting player quarantine. Cal has one player positive and Utah has an unspecified number of positive cases. Looked like an old Pac 8 throw-back.
  17. berlinerbaer
    "It's time to stop worrying about what the Republicans will say. It's true that if we embrace a far left agenda, they're going to say we're a bunch of crazy socialists. If we embrace a conservative agenda, you know what they're going to do? They're going to say we're a bunch of crazy socialists. Let's stand up for the right policy, go up there and defend it." - Pete Buttigieg
  18. berlinerbaer
    Progressivism can equate to identity politics if you are a conservative who can't tell anyone left of center apart. The Dem establishment deserves blame for this. I wouldn't attribute identity politics with the centrist/moderate wing at all, since they often represent ethnically homogeneous constituencies. I agree it shouldn't be linked with the progressive wing, which focuses more on economic issues. Identity politics is coming more out of the Democratic establishment who are in the ideological middle within the party, and who tend to come from safe districts. One reason the Dems did so well in 2018 was because the party took a decentralized strategy of messaging. The only real commonality between the candidates was healthcare, which was and still is a winning cause.
  19. berlinerbaer
    Carolyn Bordeaux won in GA-7, so far the only D --> R flip this cycle aside from the 2 redistricted seats in NC.
  20. berlinerbaer
    Some minorities, yes. There is evidence that Hispanics like progressive economic policies. Bernie Sanders did well in states with large Hispanic populations during the primary, like California and Nevada. South Texas' Henry Cuellar came damn close to losing his seat to a progressive in his primary. Cristina Ramirez almost made the run-off for TX Senate by doing well in South Texas. She was nonexistent everywhere else. Edit: The senate primary in Hidalgo county was won my Sema Hernandez, who is even further to the left than Cristina. Considering she lost by 5%, Kara Eastman in NE-2 ran at least that many points behind Biden there (I can't find presidential results from that district). Katie Porter easily won reelection in CA-45, a district that had been red for a very long time before 2018. Then again, she's a rock star.
  21. berlinerbaer
    Joe Manchin flipping to the Rs would be the worst idea ever. As a Republican, he would be just another cog in an obstructionist Senate going along on Mitch's ride. As the conservative Democrat in a 50/50 Senate, he becomes the most powerful person in the entire chamber, and West Virginia vaults to being the most consequential state in the union. He would have Schumer's ear 24/7. This only applies until 2024, after which I think he retires.
  22. berlinerbaer
    I feel relieved, but exhausted. The last four years have really dominated my psyche. I can relate to whomever it was who said that enjoying college football has been hard these past few years. My kids are turning 2 and 5 soon. Years from now, I want to be able to reflect on this time as being about them growing up and me as a new father, and not think about the state of this country. I'm pissed about the utter failure down-ballot, mostly because I believe climate change is the real deal and we won't get shit done about it the next 2 years, at least. I guess I should be feeling better. Time to find a replay of Joe's victory speech.
  23. berlinerbaer
    On another subject, the decision by many (most?) Democratic campaigns to stop door-knocking was probably an unwise overreaction. It can be done safely.
  24. berlinerbaer
    Did this swing to the right by Hispanics in Texas extend to down-ballot candidates or just the top of the ticket? I decided to look at election results in the three border CDs in South Texas compared to 4 years ago. Unfortunately for Democrats, these races also massively lurched to the right by about 15 points this time around, suggesting that it isn't just Trump driving the trend and that there is reason to expect a more evenly split Hispanic vote going forward. CD Democrat 2016 2020 Margin Diff 28th Cuellar +35 +19 16 15th Gonzalez +19 +3 15 34th Vela +25 +11 14
  25. berlinerbaer
    Not everyone votes down-ballot. This has been an issue with Dem voters in particular and is why Texas got rid of straight-ticket voting.

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