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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Anyone who wants divided government will just vote Perdue-Loeffler and not even mess around with getting the Dems one seat closer to 50. There will be minimal party crossover between the two races.
  2. Right now, this fighting can still exist mostly behind the scenes since there won't be major legislation argued over without Senate control. If the two GA senate seats go for the Dems, then shit gets real.
  3. I was talking to a couple of coworkers about the election on Thursday morning, one of whom is for sure a Trumper but tries to downplay it. Things started normal until he brought up the sharpies and the fraud. It actually seems like I had some success with him just by sticking to what even most Trump supporters know about the man: that he's a total clown. That even Trump appointee judges weren't going to deal with his bullshit in their courtrooms. I stayed away from any mention of "fairness" or identity politics that would immediately out me as a lib. Success in this case means I got him to quit arguing and just say something like "Well I just hope it's all over soon!" Yeah, man, so do I.
  4. Both Cal and Utah had to cancel their scheduled games against Washington and Arizona yesterday due to Covid and the resulting player quarantine. Cal has one player positive and Utah has an unspecified number of positive cases. Looked like an old Pac 8 throw-back.
  5. "It's time to stop worrying about what the Republicans will say. It's true that if we embrace a far left agenda, they're going to say we're a bunch of crazy socialists. If we embrace a conservative agenda, you know what they're going to do? They're going to say we're a bunch of crazy socialists. Let's stand up for the right policy, go up there and defend it." - Pete Buttigieg
  6. Progressivism can equate to identity politics if you are a conservative who can't tell anyone left of center apart. The Dem establishment deserves blame for this. I wouldn't attribute identity politics with the centrist/moderate wing at all, since they often represent ethnically homogeneous constituencies. I agree it shouldn't be linked with the progressive wing, which focuses more on economic issues. Identity politics is coming more out of the Democratic establishment who are in the ideological middle within the party, and who tend to come from safe districts. One reason the Dems did so well in 2018 was because the party took a decentralized strategy of messaging. The only real commonality between the candidates was healthcare, which was and still is a winning cause.
  7. Carolyn Bordeaux won in GA-7, so far the only D --> R flip this cycle aside from the 2 redistricted seats in NC.
  8. Some minorities, yes. There is evidence that Hispanics like progressive economic policies. Bernie Sanders did well in states with large Hispanic populations during the primary, like California and Nevada. South Texas' Henry Cuellar came damn close to losing his seat to a progressive in his primary. Cristina Ramirez almost made the run-off for TX Senate by doing well in South Texas. She was nonexistent everywhere else. Edit: The senate primary in Hidalgo county was won my Sema Hernandez, who is even further to the left than Cristina. Considering she lost by 5%, Kara Eastman in NE-2 ran at least that many points behind Biden there (I can't find presidential results from that district). Katie Porter easily won reelection in CA-45, a district that had been red for a very long time before 2018. Then again, she's a rock star.
  9. Joe Manchin flipping to the Rs would be the worst idea ever. As a Republican, he would be just another cog in an obstructionist Senate going along on Mitch's ride. As the conservative Democrat in a 50/50 Senate, he becomes the most powerful person in the entire chamber, and West Virginia vaults to being the most consequential state in the union. He would have Schumer's ear 24/7. This only applies until 2024, after which I think he retires.
  10. I feel relieved, but exhausted. The last four years have really dominated my psyche. I can relate to whomever it was who said that enjoying college football has been hard these past few years. My kids are turning 2 and 5 soon. Years from now, I want to be able to reflect on this time as being about them growing up and me as a new father, and not think about the state of this country. I'm pissed about the utter failure down-ballot, mostly because I believe climate change is the real deal and we won't get shit done about it the next 2 years, at least. I guess I should be feeling better. Time to find a replay of Joe's victory speech.
  11. On another subject, the decision by many (most?) Democratic campaigns to stop door-knocking was probably an unwise overreaction. It can be done safely.
  12. Did this swing to the right by Hispanics in Texas extend to down-ballot candidates or just the top of the ticket? I decided to look at election results in the three border CDs in South Texas compared to 4 years ago. Unfortunately for Democrats, these races also massively lurched to the right by about 15 points this time around, suggesting that it isn't just Trump driving the trend and that there is reason to expect a more evenly split Hispanic vote going forward. CD Democrat 2016 2020 Margin Diff 28th Cuellar +35 +19 16 15th Gonzalez +19 +3 15 34th Vela +25 +11 14
  13. Not everyone votes down-ballot. This has been an issue with Dem voters in particular and is why Texas got rid of straight-ticket voting.
  14. This. Many people on both sides simply don't want to admit just how good Donald Trump was in driving turnout among his supporters and translating that to the rest of the GOP ticket. All of us were floored by the turnout nationwide but lots of us mistakenly believed it was predominately on the Dem side. I don't think Dem enthusiasm dipped much, if any, compared to 2018. Losses among some minorities, although a clear warning sign, were replaced by gains among white suburbanites and older voters. The uptick in GOP turnout due to Trump being on the ballot was more than enough to beat back a possible blue wave and regain control of gerrymandered congressional and state house districts. The notion that he was a drag on candidates down ballot simply wasn't true. We need to put Biden's pending win over Trump into some perspective. I think time will tell us that it was no small feat.
  15. Biden coming out with the first public announcement tonight, optimistic but preaching patience, was brilliant. Knowing Trump, he no doubt feels he has to say something, but anything blasting the electoral process won't look good in court.
  16. The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying. Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.
  17. There are Lib and Green party candidates in the race pulling ~2 and 4% respectively, which will make it tough for anyone to break 50%. Ranked choice voting then kicks in and that should elevate Gideon more than Collins. The Green candidate has actually told her supporters to put Gideon down as their #2.
  18. Shit, I'm talking short-term low hanging fruit and y'all are freewheeling your wish lists. I held back from my 2nd amendment repeal.
  19. Low hanging fruit if Biden is elected, in this order: 1. Covid stimulus 2. HR-1 / new voting rights act 3. Universal background checks + red flag law Just those three and a bunch of executive orders to shore up the existing ACA, take the kids out of cages, effectively staff all agencies and departments, and reimpose Obama-level oversight and regulations and the Dems will expand their share of the House and Senate in 2022. Having said that, watch them all fuck around for 18 months with a new health care bill, or the Green New Deal, and I say that as someone who wants those things.
  20. Right? and it wasn't even a black Hitler.
  21. Unless it is an N95 mask, it won't offer much protection for the wearer. Most masks really only offer protection from the wearer. It only takes one asshole...
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