berlinerbaer

Nothing you ever post is

She should have taken a similar path as Yang and Inslee and run as a single-issue candidate. But unlike those two, she is so good at that one issue, anti-corruption in her case, that she would have gone far into the primary just hammering on that. Instead, she felt the need to have a plan for everything and become a "total" candidate. I agree that getting caught up in Bernie's wheelhouse, M4A, really cost her. She was my choice, then I started to waver 50/50 with Bernie. Wednesday night's debate put me back on her side (she is soooo good speaking truth to power) but Bernie's cleanup in Nevada makes me think I should go full bro. I'm not sure what I'm going to do.

Michelle

Dude. Get off of Surly, take a bathroom break, grab a beer, and watch that motherfucker. You give the Bernie Bros way too much credit. Sanders strikes me as someone with integrity who won't attempt to appease the worst of his supporters, unlike the current stain on the White House. I'm not sure he should choose any of the young progressives as a running mate. It won't be a moderate, but he should pick someone to help build out the coalition. I like the idea of a woman of color sitting in the ideological middle of the party. Like Kamala or Stacey Abrams.

I'm probably going to vote for her. I may flip to Hegar in the runoff if I think she has a significantly better chance of actually winning, but as it stands now I'm pretty sure it's an L regardless. With that in mind I'd prefer the progressive candidate to stay in it it and keep laying groundwork. You've pretty much described me. I'll likely vote Hegar in the runoff as well, but I want to see a statewide match-up between a progressive and a moderate Dem, so I'll vote for Tzintzun this go around. The runoff will gauge just how remote Bernie's prospects are for flipping this state in the general or, conversely, make me wish we had nominated him if we instead go with Bloomie.

Ducey had no choice. The Arizona GOP doesn't have much of a bench anymore. It's not at all like Texas. For a decade after the Dems win their first statewide seat in TX, I expect the GOP to still contest heavily and even win the majority of statewide offices. I wouldn't count on Texas becoming a legitimate blue state, but will instead move to purple and stay there for the foreseeable future, like Florida and North Carolina. One reason is because of the large number of quality candidates either currently in lower offices or waiting to run. This will make TX a swing state long after the demographics would suggest it should be blue. Arizona is different. McSally was appointed because the alternatives were Kelli Ward or the convict former sheriff. The only sure win the GOP has for Senate is Ducey himself if he chooses to run after his governor term limits expire. The GOP is in real trouble in Arizona, so that state may go straight from red to blue without lingering at purple for more than a couple of cycles, much like Colorado and Virginia have done.

This is not true, unfortunately. We have yet to see a poll that wasn't conducted before the most recent debate. Might be wishful thinking, but I think Bloomie's numbers are going to suffer to the benefit of Biden. And that Bugs Bunny gif gets me every time

I haven't voted yet for the same reason: Nevada. But I'm coming around to not caring about Nevada, mostly because any post-debate bump in favor of Warren won't show up. Most Nevadans had already voted by Wednesday night. I guess it depends on your number 2. I'm looking for polling showing Liz approaching viability in Texas. If not, I might vote Bernie to help push him over.

Many Chinese men smoke whereas few Chinese women do. This can be best explained if the actual number of infected in Hubei is higher than being reported. Local healthcare is overwhelmed so lots of people with milder symptoms won't get tested.

Texas Democratic Primary Senate Debate for your eyeballs

I was assuming that he won the nomination because the point of my first post was to make an argument in favor of his electability vs. Trump.

What If he wins the nom? Do you plan on staying home? If not, then they would be working towards your desired outcome, regardless of how personal their loyalties lie.

Truth. Those guys may be assholes, but they'd be our assholes. They are the only group of supporters who could go up against the forthcoming Russian troll/bot army online.

Oh come on. Mayor Pete said it himself. Who cares what the Rs think? If a moderate wins the nomination, they'll call him/her a socialist. If a progressive wins, ditto. They screamed socialism from the rooftops in 2018 and it didn't change that election from being a good one for the Ds. The boy who cried wolf, yada yada... Obama won Iowa in 2008. Hillary won Iowa (barely) in 2016. New Hampshire is less predictive for the Ds but has been nails for the Rs.

You still may if they decide to re-canvass.

I thought Hillary was the safe choice in 2016. Whoops.

Quite a few things have pissed me off over the last 4 years or so. But this is hilarious.

Bernie beat Hillary there by over 20 points in 2016. Lots of bros in New Hampshire.

The state of Iowa and the caucus process itself is tailor made for Pete. No close seconds... he needs to place first at the end of counting or he's in some real trouble going forward. It's all uphill from here. For opposite reasons, Biden's demise is being greatly exaggerated. He should still be the favorite to win the nomination. Unfortunately for him, this result doesn't make him look good as the eventual nominee. A fourth place finish in IA shouldn't give anyone confidence that he can win back the Midwest/Rust Belt. I don't buy arguments that this was a disappointing night for Bernie. The progressive vote is being split between him and Warren, and he should do even better than Liz in states that aren't so white. I expect him to win once the vote is fully counted. Only haters can see any downside in placing first against this crowded a field. As for Liz, I was disappointed at first but I'm coming around to thinking the night was a decent showing for her. She should get a bump from the last third left to count. Klob, Yang, and the others who campaigned in Iowa should drop out. It's a four person race, with Bloomberg replacing Pete by Super Tuesday.

FTFY

Yang might pardon Trump if elected https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331

Yang might pardon Trump if elected https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331

Something worth pointing out, as much of the hand-wringing on this page over immigration is from folks who lean left: most newly arriving Chinese are conservative. Unlike in past decades, few are political or economic refugees. They tend to have money, which they gained in a society with rampant nepotism and inequality. They'll naturally gravitate to similar entities, i.e. Trump and the GOP. That said, keep bringing them in. Their kids will grow up to be just as liberal as most other Asian-Americans.

Beto won in 9 districts that ended up electing a Republican state representative in 2018. 1) That was a lot of ticket splitting. 2) Goddamn Ted Cruz is unpopular. I mean, holy shit. I can't fathom he actually runs for reelection in 2024. White House or bust for him, I think. 3) It's going to be hard to claw away the 10 seats needed to win the State House, if Beto only managed to win in 9 of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.

In a heavily Dem-leaning election nationally, Zerwas won reelection here in 2018 by almost nine points. This is not a purple district. For 2020, focus your attention further south to the 26th district: open seat that the GOP won by only 5 in 2018.