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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Some candidates are just good at raising money on their own. I don't know how easy those funds can be transferred to other campaigns and wouldn't assume big numbers in some places mean the national party is hanging some candidates out to dry. Gallego comes to mind. He's ahead like +10 in the polls and doesn't need $35M, but people are still opening their wallets for him.
  2. The Pac had rules against placing the visitors next to the students. The ACC does not. I'll know the university is taking football seriously if the students are coached into turning this into home field advantage instead of just moving the away team, which I fully expect.
  3. That poll is 100% bullshit. It's hard enough nowadays to poll enough voters for any candidate to get a MOE of 2%. That would require hundreds if not > 1000 respondents. There is no way they got that many RFK voters to respond. This has to be a crosstab of a general election poll with like 50 RFK voters, in which case the MOE is greater than 20%.
  4. That's about one volunteer for every 200 - 300 voters in the LV metro area. That's A LOT of phone calls and door knocks between now and November.
  5. No question Obama's was bigger, but his movement grew in spite of, or probably because of its independence from the Democratic party. This did not help the party post-ACA. Harris and Walz are not outsiders or newcomers to the Democratic party. The groundswell of support they are attracting should help the party going forward. Although it doesn't feel as unique and powerful as Obama '08 felt to me, this campaign and the administration that should come in 2025 will likely be far more consequential than Obama's. Harris also didn't have to win a grueling primary to get the nomination, unlike Obama having to go through Hillary. '08 seemed fun at the time but it really left some real damage in the party, if we are being honest with ourselves.
  6. Should have just swung for the fences with Kamablablah or Kamablablablah
  7. Harris is rightly using the Lankford bill to hammer Republicans on the campaign. It's your own fault that you don't understand politics enough to realize that isn't predictive of her future administration's policy. That bill is dead and buried and will never get voted on. The next immigration bill drafed under a Harris administration will be to the left of that one, maybe only slightly, because the Republicans will have lost all leverage.
  8. France fucking around and probably should be down a goal at half. Guinea has had two goals taken off the board after VAR offsides calls. Questionable.
  9. Someone walk through the electoral strategy of choosing JD Vance as running mate, because I don't get it. He's from Ohio. Trump is already going to win Ohio. Ask Wolverine fans if Ohio = Michigan. He's a nutbag. Does Trump not already have the nutbag vote locked up? Actually, he was a nutbag never Trumper with a shitty book who became a nutbag MAGA. That doesn't equate to appeal with moderates or indies. Mike Pence was a great choice in 2016. This isn't as bad as choosing Vivek, but there is no net benefit to this pick unless I'm missing something.
  10. I was walking the Lamanai ruins earlier this week and the mosquitoes were otherworldly until we applied the DEET. Just be prepared.
  11. The polls have been bad for Biden all year compared to 2020. Have the polls shifted much since the debate?
  12. It’s Harris as plan B and there is no plan C. She’s the veep and situations like this are what veeps are for, no? She’s been on the ticket and in the cabinet for 4 years already and she’ll have access to all the campaign cash accrued to date. I doubt the party could unite behind anyone else in four months without some group in the D tent getting their feelings hurt. The base will get behind Harris if only because of succession, and reassuring the base is step 1. Worry about indies later.
  13. There is no silver bullet that will take down Trump. It wasn’t Jan 6, it wasn’t getting impeached twice, it wasn’t losing in 2020, and it wasn’t 34 felony convictions. It sure as hell wouldn’t have been a good debate performance by Biden. Thankfully, I believe the flip side is also true in this single case. A bad debate performance won’t sink Biden. He’ll be good enough in September that this won’t matter.
  14. Interesting speculation from the article. He has until August 1 to decide whether to run and gather 8000 signatures. Maybe that seat isn't a slam dunk R flip if he runs indie, but I'm clueless on WV politics and have no idea how he's made it this long.
  15. Maybe one of you can stop hyperventilating and explain why this thread blew up like 7 hours ago. Some of us have day jobs away from our desk.
  16. "I'm afraid Trump won't leave office if he wins again, but I'm still undecided."
  17. The 18 point delta between Gallego and Biden is ridiculous but possible due to Kari Lake's abysmal popularity (won't be shocked if she loses the primary). That said, I think more than half of those ticket spillers are reachable for Biden. On the flipside, I think Trump is close to the height of his popularity right now and has little to no room for further growth. The Biden campaign IMO correctly believes that running an actual campaign will help close the gap in AZ and other states over the next 5 months.
  18. I just threw Allred $50 but yeah, you're right. A cheat sheet on who/where to donate in Texas would be helpful. For example, last cycle I remember all the swingy TX state house districts were bundled together into one account on act blue IIRC.
  19. Y'all need to relax. Very few college students today were eligible to vote in the last presidential election. 95% of them could stay home in November while Biden squeezes out only the flimsiest of margins with the rest and that would still translate into net new votes in his column. Meanwhile, 4 more years worth of olds are no longer voting eligible. We are a bunch of privileged white males fretting about the voting behavior of some younger versions of ourselves who have the luxury of being one-issue Gaza voters. Meanwhile, Gen Z women who are under attack are going to turn the fuck out.
  20. My second stint at UC Berkeley was as a postdoc where, like all other postdocs and many other staff positions, I was actually represented by the UAW. This was in the physical sciences, so not the kind of crowd that would join the picket line alongside Humanities. The UAW was entitled to a small fraction of my salary, even if I wasn't a member, but my health insurance was badass. "Hi, I'm Todd. Your UAW representative. Are you interested in becoming a member of the union? We have monthly meetings and your monthly membership dues would be XX." "No. I'm too busy." "I understand. Are you aware that xx of your monthly pay goes to supporting us regardless of your membership?" "Yeah. I'm cool with that. Keep up the good work. But really, I'm too busy." My experience may be unique, having worked in Libtown, USA. Now, as a researcher in Corporate America with a family who thinks my healthcare premiums and deductibles are too damn high, I'd be down with union membership. Still, I think the incubator of the concept is earlier in the professional career, i.e. in academic environments, and those folks are too overworked to care, and too beholden to unsympathetic faculty. /csb
  21. If you must know, I saw a comment on Youtube that she apologized to Putin on Twitter and went to go find it. No such luck but she certainly is having a moment.
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