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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. The state of Iowa and the caucus process itself is tailor made for Pete. No close seconds... he needs to place first at the end of counting or he's in some real trouble going forward. It's all uphill from here. For opposite reasons, Biden's demise is being greatly exaggerated. He should still be the favorite to win the nomination. Unfortunately for him, this result doesn't make him look good as the eventual nominee. A fourth place finish in IA shouldn't give anyone confidence that he can win back the Midwest/Rust Belt. I don't buy arguments that this was a disappointing night for Bernie. The progressive vote is being split between him and Warren, and he should do even better than Liz in states that aren't so white. I expect him to win once the vote is fully counted. Only haters can see any downside in placing first against this crowded a field. As for Liz, I was disappointed at first but I'm coming around to thinking the night was a decent showing for her. She should get a bump from the last third left to count. Klob, Yang, and the others who campaigned in Iowa should drop out. It's a four person race, with Bloomberg replacing Pete by Super Tuesday.
  2. Yang might pardon Trump if elected https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331
  3. Yang might pardon Trump if elected https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/pardon-trump-andrew-yang-2020-110331
  4. Something worth pointing out, as much of the hand-wringing on this page over immigration is from folks who lean left: most newly arriving Chinese are conservative. Unlike in past decades, few are political or economic refugees. They tend to have money, which they gained in a society with rampant nepotism and inequality. They'll naturally gravitate to similar entities, i.e. Trump and the GOP. That said, keep bringing them in. Their kids will grow up to be just as liberal as most other Asian-Americans.
  5. Beto won in 9 districts that ended up electing a Republican state representative in 2018. 1) That was a lot of ticket splitting. 2) Goddamn Ted Cruz is unpopular. I mean, holy shit. I can't fathom he actually runs for reelection in 2024. White House or bust for him, I think. 3) It's going to be hard to claw away the 10 seats needed to win the State House, if Beto only managed to win in 9 of them. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.
  6. In a heavily Dem-leaning election nationally, Zerwas won reelection here in 2018 by almost nine points. This is not a purple district. For 2020, focus your attention further south to the 26th district: open seat that the GOP won by only 5 in 2018.
  7. I envy the man who can just eat the cost of his plane ticket like it's nothing.
  8. also applicable
  9. The Rs historically have been masters at the long game, but some of their recent actions look more like desperation to me. The recent laser-focus on the judiciary, a real bulwark against a liberalizing government and population, suggests the power brokers are aware that they are in electoral trouble long-term and looking for ways to maintain control after they've left office. Please, God, let that be true.
  10. Then it goes to a brokered convention. What happens then if the progressives, collectively, have the majority? When do the superdelegates swoop in?
  11. So beating Ole Miss got them to 6-6 and a bowl, which only temporarily extended Moorhead? Is that the connection? Or did one rival replacing a coach prompt the other to do the same?
  12. I can't keep up. Who did Leach replace at Miss St? I'm looking to validate that tweet in my mind.
  13. Total no-brainer to put that '02 tOSU team at #20
  14. Hey, I'm still getting used to Garbers being good. This was the best game of his career.
  15. I like Garbers but I'd take Patterson over him in a heartbeat.
  16. The Cal offense is getting me excited for next season. It's been a few years since I could say that.
  17. Minority rule ends poorly. For everyone.
  18. Those numbers aren't earth-shattering for a third party candidate in a presidential election and they are not why Clinton lost. It's moot anyway in the case of Michigan, where sore loser laws would prevent Tulsi from appearing on the ballot as an independent.
  19. Someone who was polling around 2% of the likely Dem primary vote isn't going to play spoiler as an independent, even if Biden is the nominee. She'd be another Jill Stein, at best. Ralph Nader farts in her general direction. Her only political future is as a Republican in some weird district with a preternatural enrichment of young, disaffected, white males. That said, I expect her to go into media and have a diminutive, but dedicated following of aforementioned incels. She has the looks, but totally lacks the charisma to make it very far.
  20. Cenk is a meathead, but a highly entertaining one. He belongs right where he is: in media, not in public office. Ana should be the one running for this House seat.
  21. Rick Miller (R) of Sugar Land isn't seeking reelection in the TX House 26th district following comments on his primary opponents largely seen as racist. Yes, this was in the Republican Party thread, but it belongs here, because this will be a very competitive district in 2020 and one that the Dems really ought to flip if they are going to take control of the State House. https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/03/greg-abbott-rescinds-endorsement-texas-republican-rick-miller/ Miller was a very strong candidate so his exit is a real blow to the Texas GOP. He mopped the floor with his Dem opponent, Sarah Demerchant, by 15 points in 2016 but won by less than 5 points in their 2018 rematch. Demerchant is running again but is likely going to get beat in the Dem primary by Rish Oberoi, who is killing it in fundraising and a better fit for the district (he's of South Asian descent, ahem). He'll gladly take your $20 if you want to flip the House next year.
  22. Just to make another analogy, this reminds me of the Belotti to Kelly transfer at Oregon a decade ago. Belotti was pretty good in his own right but encountered a few rough seasons near the end before promoting an up-and-comer. I recall he also took an administrative role in the AD for a few years.
  23. Yeah, two whole decades. Most Cal fans don't even bother asking anymore. At least UCLA at the university level is receptive toward a winning football program. It will happen again eventually.
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