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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Richard Ojeda is running for president in 2020. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-a-trump-voter-from-west-virginia-win-the-2020-democratic-primary/
  2. THE DROUGHT IS OVER!! FUCK YOU, SC!!
  3. 15 years is too fucking long...
  4. So he was the Jeff Flake of the greater Houston area? It's fitting then that both his and Flake's seats will be occupied by Democrats. I'd rather stand up to Goeb by giving some Republicans the boot. Flipping 2 state senate seats and 12 house seats will be far more effective than a tongue lashing from Ed Emmett. I welcome a Harris and Fort Bend county purge as part of the deal.
  5. Sure, he couldn't run for president today. Luckily for him, there's a whole primary season for him to build his name. He generated a ton of nationwide buzz on the Left during his run for the senate, and those people will show up to vote for him in the primary and spread the word to those who aren't yet familiar.
  6. It's a page out of the Trumpist's (authoritarian's) playbook. Feed your base a never-ending diet of fear and hate, and always be on the lookout for the next boogeyman.
  7. If Sinema goes up 50k from the outstanding votes from the other counties then yes, McSally would have to win the Maricopa leftovers by 25 points to pull even. If the next batch drops with numbers more favorable to Sinema than expected, they should call the race in her favor.
  8. I just noticed that Matt Rinaldi lost reelection to his state House seat. Ciao, you racist profiling shitbag!
  9. What's Frederika Wilson have to do with anything?
  10. Ft Bend County judge seat flipped too. I was just looking at the local races down there. Ft Bend is blue. Dem sweeps in all judge and clerk positions that were contested.
  11. I think that's my shitty senator Lois Kolkhorst. She wasn't on the ballot this time.
  12. I have family in the CA-50 and I think that, to a person, they all voted for Hunter. It's shitty.
  13. All true. But yeah, she's old. There will be a succession plan announced and it will hopefully be followed through before the 2020 elections, otherwise some of the newly won seats will be in danger.
  14. Pete Olson projected winner in TX-22 by AP by his narrowest of margins so far in that seat. Dammit. Sri should run again in 2020.
  15. This.
  16. Putting all you've got into the one branch of government with the least enforcement ability. Okay.
  17. This. The fact is that nobody knows how a Democrat can win Texas until one actually does. Trump's approval rating hanging at 40% despite him progressively becoming and even bigger piece of shit over the past 20 months demonstrates the folly of attempting to appeal to Republicans. Beto is 100% correct that his path to victory is turning this state from the worst in voter turnout into something better. There are new people who haven't yet chosen a side who need to be targeted. Phil Bredesen in TN has as good a shot as Beto, if not better, running as a moderate. But he's already a household name there, so it's apples to oranges. I do share the same criticism as many of you about Beto's campaign. Particularly his ad buys in the late summer to early fall months and perceived lack of outreach to latino voters. I took it as a bad sign that he lost so many of the border counties during the primary. Hopefully, he gets a big election day turnout.
  18. No. It's a Republican self-own, clearly.
  19. Aaaannnd Jon Ralston predicts Jacky Rosen to win in NV on Tuesday. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday
  20. There are ballot measures meant to address redistricting in four states. MI and CO - independent commission for congressional and state leg (all likely to pass) UT - semi-independent commission (likely to pass) MO - independent demographer draws state leg maps, requires 70% of leg to overrule, also imposes campaign contribution limits https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-about-the-candidates-what-else-is-on-the-ballot-this-week/
  21. Eastern Washington can have Beau Baldwin back.
  22. Now if we can only protect the goddamned ball...
  23. Why the fuck is McIlwain playing any more than his usual package plays? It has been well established he's a turnover machine.
  24. Some of those ads are put out by Cruz proxies and not the campaign itself. Beto beats Cruz head-to-head in raising money, but he isn't competing with just the Cruz campaign. He's competing against the Cruz campaign, the Republican Senatorial Committee, the RNC, and too many PACs and other proxies to name. The Cruz campaign money plus indirect investment from these orgs likely dwarfs Beto's $38 million. At some point, the TV ad market reaches saturation, with so many campaigns and proxies buying what limited air time exists. I have no idea how that works.
  25. All counties under 100% of 2014 are rural (no idea why). Davidson (Nashville), Hamilton (Chatanooga), Rutherford (suburban Nashville), Shelby (Memphis), and Williamson (suburban Nashville) are all over 200%. That's the top four urban population areas except Knoxville (Knox county is at 170%). We'd all be jumping up and down if a similar situation was playing out in Texas. This is great news for Bredesen.
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