berlinerbaer

The list of autoimmune diseases and disorders is long and the list of suspects is even longer and, yes, some of those are believed to be started by an initial trigger, such as a viral infection and the inflammatory response. This, to me, makes it even more important to get vaccinated. The 6 hour 100 degree fever a one year-old gets following a vaccine is nothing compared to the inflammation of fighting a full-blown illness for a week that could have easily been prevented. Not only that, but the breadth of the disease strongly suggests it may actually be several distinct conditions, each with its own unique set of genetic causes and environmental triggers as well.

So when do we start pumping sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere? Keep the sunblock handy.

Fivethirtyeight with an editors' roundtable on what constitutes a swing district this cycle. They see a growing battleground that isn't limited to suburban districts, but also includes Trumpy Midwestern districts. They expect Obama --> Trump voters in states like WI, OH, and PA to kill the GOP, while they seem less bullish on suburban districts outside the Midwest flipping.

Recently arrived older Asian immigrants vote Republican because they are socially conservative and, nowadays, well-off financially. I find this to be the case with the Chinese around Houston, who could say things that would make my small town Nebraska relatives blush. Immigrants who have been here longer are more likely to have dealt with some form of bullshit, whether it's racism, immigration policy, or something else. These people get bluer as time goes on and, make no mistake, if they happen to have children of voting age, those kids are solid D. A good example are the Vietnamese-Americans, who used to be staunch Republicans but I recall a recent poll showing them to be something like 55-45 Dem now. Here in my corner of Sugar Land, the South Asians are in love with our Dem House candidate, who is one of them (and a damn fine candidate, TBH). The folks from the Indian subcontinent will go to bat for their guy/gal, regardless of party, more often than many of the other folks.

Mbappe has spent much of the tournament getting legitimately fouled because it's been the only way defenses have been able to slow him down. For now, he can get away with diving since the refs are expecting contact. The refs will adjust, hopefully in time for the final.

I was going to call you insane before realizing you're talking State Leg here. I expect a couple of flips in the State House here in the greater Houston area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more. The State Senate is another story. Too gerrymandered. I want Pelosi out for the same reason I want all of the Dem leadership in the House out. They're all too fucking old. The short term health of the party depends on the young reps getting some experience calling the shots. It's not because I perceive her to be crazy or any more partisan than the other side.

Croatia has nothing left in the tank. Lucky Limeys

Helluva save from the one-legged keeper.

Naw. It was Russia's #7 to blame. The keeper thought he was going to clear the ball away.

Her voting record won't matter. Crowley lost because of his well-known ties to special interests and the Party leadership. If his voting record did him in, it was because of being too cozy with the banks and wall street. As long as AOC is perceived as being a boat rocker to a certain extent, she can represent NY-14 for as long as she likes. Voters won't give a shit if her bills fail to make it out of committee as long as she is seen as being responsive to her constituents. Her fight will be in the press and out on social media as much as it will be within Congress, especially while her kind are still a significant minority in DC. As far as stumping goes, she can help raise money for 2020 nominees without having to look over her shoulder as long as she's also holding town halls back in Queens. Could she become corrupted by the NYC Democratic machine? I guess so, but then so would anybody. I'd be more worried about all this political insanity subsiding someday, and her losing to a well-funded, well-connected moderate primary challenger rather than to another bomb thrower.

She is a shoe-in to win in November and will be for many Novembers to come even if the worst case scenarios you both have outlined come to pass. Crowley won in 2016 by 60 points, as did Hillary. Her district is as blue as they come. Get used to her, unless the Dems in her district get tired of it 8 cycles from now. The Reds may try to put her under a microscope, but unless she is in any position of leadership, such attacks won't have 10% of the teeth of those against someone like Maxine Waters. In 5 years, AOC will probably be just another Barbara Lee, an ultra-left congresswoman from a navy blue district who fills the local papers with the occasional tasty soundbite. Every second Fox News spends on AOC is a second they aren't spending on Chuck and Nancy, or in talking up the Dotard.

I didn't read all 7 pages, so this might have already been mentioned, but take a look at a map of Maxine Waters' district. Her relationship with the right should now make much more sense.

Good. I wouldn't have watched another 90+ minutes of tiki-taka anyway.

My pulse quickened a bit. More of that pls, k thanx bye

One in four women has gotten or will get an abortion during their lifetime. I would guess that number grows if you include the women who will think or have thought about it. So, a lot. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/10/19/u-s-abortion-rate-fell-25-percent-from-2008-to-2014-one-in-four-women-have-an-abortion/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c4a1e62b9b7b

We have the most to lose, that's the bottom line, and we've demonstrated just how easily damage can be inflicted upon us. Look, two countries far weaker than we are, as well as one non-state actor, gave us or are still giving us absolute fits for two decades, and one of those (Afghanistan) looks like a lost cause. They've done this using methods of asymmetric warfare not all that different than what the Vietnamese used on us forty years ago. And then there's the Russians, who seem to have thrown our political system into chaos without firing a single shot. But, yeah. We have the most ships and stuff. And really fucking expensive fighter jets.

I was talking Texas State House district 28, not US House. Incumbent John Zerwas has run unopposed since 2010. That district has really changed since then (only 47% white and only 22% Hispanic, so it's full of minorities more likely to vote). Switching gears to the US House, you don't even think Culberson's district is in play?

I've met Meghan Scoggins a couple of times and left with the sense that she knew what she was doing. Getting quoted by the WSJ confirms that. Looking at the district she's running in, there's no way that seat isn't a flip in November. Hopefully it's one of several flips in suburban Houston.

Or, more accurately, everybody else is judged differently than Donald Trump.

Only if we are off the peninsula entirely and it's China with all the regional influence. In that case then yes, I agree with you. Strange, isn't it? It doesn't make logical sense, especially with Trump pulling us out of the Iran deal, which should be a huge red flag to anyone trying to negotiate with the US. The fact that the chips are all falling into place with North Korea despite all of this is more than a little suspicious. My line of thinking is that this all will go over amazingly well, despite the blatantly obvious shortcomings of this administration. We will have to make a MAJOR concession, like leaving Korea completely, but the Norks will similarly make their own apparently huge concessions, like giving up their nukes with UN inspections or basically the Iran deal but with Trump involved so of course it'll be awesome. With us off the peninsula, the threat to Kim's regime is greatly reduced, if not completely eliminated. It also provides China with a key long-term goal. NK won't need the nukes anymore, with their big brother taking over the region. China is playing the long game here, knowing how badly Trump wants a "win" and doing their part to influence American public opinion to bump up Trump's approval. Short term, this will give them brownie points in trade negotiations. Long term, they know he's is the most effective way to cripple their rival. Don't get me wrong. I'll be happy to see the Korean peninsula denuclearized (big if whether Kim keeps his word...) and a part of me wants our military out of SK as well. I'm just apprehensive about China's regional dominance in Asia, our government turning a blind eye to Chinese manipulation here at home, and of course fretting a boost to Trump's approval rating, prolonging and accelerating the damage he does to this country.

Ruh-roh https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/05/blankenship-polls-west-virginia-senate-primary-570752

Politico shares this view. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/06/trump-midterms-republicans-presidency-571550

His domestic policy agenda is looking like an unmitigated disaster, but I've seen some good things out of Trump's foreign policy. Not many, but some. He hasn't been drawn into Syria aside from some limited strikes and I can be hopeful, if pessimistic, about the upcoming meeting with Lil' Kim. His election and administration should force our country to do some real, long-overdue soul searching.

Vietnam, in 1979

NYT has called the AZ-08 race for the Republican, who is leading by 6 points with about 80% of the total vote counted (most early/vote by mail ballots). If the result holds, it would be a +19 swing for the Ds from 2016 results. The district is CVI +13 R, meaning only 93 districts are more Republican. Both candidates were plain vanilla, no scandals, no lack of money, so no excuses for the GOP. The partisan breakdown for the district by registration is 49/30/21 R/D/I. Looking at the current score of 53/47 R/D, there are a significant number of R -> D crossover voters and independents are breaking heavily for the D. That's a nasty combo for the Republicans.