berlinerbaer

Vaccines for rotavirus are routine nowadays, so it's likely one of the other dozens of causes of viral gastroenteritis.

That NYT article is the first mention I've heard of my own TX 22nd district, and hopefully not the last. The incumbent, Pete Olson, is a fairly popular moderate who has stayed nearly out of sight since Trump got elected, aside from holding a town hall at 7:30 in the morning on the first day of school last September and co-sponsoring the Internet Privacy Raid of March 2017, IIRC. We'll see if he will feel the need to get in with the R loony bin. Sri Kulkarni, my pick, will face off against Leticia Plummer in the May Democratic runoff. Plummer, a Berniecrat, is an otherwise good candidate who plays the gender and race card too heavily to beat Olson, IMO. Her campaign has gathered steam since receiving an endorsement from the "establishment" candidate and last month's 3rd place finisher Steve Brown, who has engaged in a bit of mud-slinging with Kulkarni. I think Kulkarni has done a good job running as a progressive with some moderate appeal, and he impressed me in the few debates and town halls I've watched. Plus, the Indians (dot) of Sugar Land will fucking love him. He can make it a single digit race against Olson, if nominated, and with a good ground game and a few bounces his way, who knows?

Was that earlier report of a Hezbollah C&C target getting hit accurate? Sounds like only 3 targets were actually destroyed. https://www.axios.com/united-states-strikes-syria-b81c0842-ba04-4278-a583-47207ecd840a.html?utm_source=sidebar

Trump's involvement in this evening's events is open to interpretation. We do know he tends to give the military a long leash.

I wonder how long he can hold out. Hopefully, the bags under his eyes are genetic. Sadly, Bolton is the one with the fresh legs.

No doubt that if Hillary were president right now the Republicans would be looking at a supermajority in both chambers, 40+ governors mansions, another decade of favorably gerrymandered districts, and possibly the ratification of the balanced budget amendment by 2021 at the latest.

The US providing cover for French and British airstrikes. I saw this movie in 2011. One dictator dead, the country is still a mess.

Another vote for skyscanner. That site always worked for me. I lived in Berlin for 4 years. That city has it all, which is why I'm a bad person to ask about where else in the country to go... If you are outdoorsy, I recommend the Saechischer Schweiz. An easy day trip out of Dresden (itself a beautifully restored city worth a day's visit), you can hike along the Elbe River near the Czech border in some of Europe's coolest scenery.

Big Horn BBQ just off 288 in Pearland isn't bad. The chicken is pretty damn good, in fact. I've never been to Killen's.

This is where we are with our 2 yo son. Daycare has been informing me the last few weeks that he hasn't been napping for at least one day each week. This week, it went to two days, including yesterday when he fell asleep on the ride home before dinner. That left my wife and I with the dilemma of whether to wake him up and try to feed him and give him a bath, or let him sleep until he wakes up hungry in the middle of the night. We chose the former and he pitched a two hour-long fit but slept solid from 8:30 to 7:00 this morning. The drives in the car on weekends, a tried and true method to knock him out, have progressively gotten longer. I'm resigned to the fact that the early afternoon P&Q will come to an eventual end.

Cook Political makes another 13 districts bluer in their April review. http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/april-house-overview-ratings-changes-13-districts

I went to Truth for the first time a couple weekends ago and it was fantastic. The jalapeno cheddar sausage was worth the 45 min wait, IMO. Even the cole slaw looked like they spent years perfecting. The free beer with tips was a nice touch, too. Curious what you ordered both times you went.

Warren: I'll serve my full senate term if re-elected

So a 2-deep at every position plus a kicker/punter? Do injuries never happen at ASU? If I were a slacking player, I'd call his bluff.

In response to the state legislature seat that went Dem in January, Walker attempted to get remaining special elections postponed until November, only to be rejected by the courts. I wonder if this is one of the elections he tried to quash.

Your idea is for Trump to do Silicon Valley a favor while extending a middle finger to the Rust Belt, or basically to flush his electoral strategy down the toilet. He isn't that stupid.

Oh please. You wouldn't trust what she said anyway.

Not so fun fact: oaks are monoecious, meaning they are hermaphrodites. They jizz all over you in March and then pelt you with acorns in October.

Trump doesn't drink. The con artist strikes again.

In 2016, sure. But Trump will have muddled through 3+ years of Oval office buffoonery by 2020. His populist message will not be what it once was. LOL, Jesus, no. Liz Warren fires up the base. Her base is Bernie's base PLUS a fair portion of the center-left. Among the two, only one openly calls himself a democratic socialist, and that ain't Warren. She would pull more support from rank-and-file Dems in a general election against Trump than Bernie would. Nobody would sit that one out. The only question mark would be the D to R crossovers, but that would apply with any Dem candidate. This right here. A centrist would make a great VP candidate, but they aren't likely to win the nomination. Instead, aside from Biden, who can run on name recognition, the 2020 Dem nominee will meet one of two criteria: 1) Be a political shape-shifter, someone who is less tied to policy positions and able to change them as need be, ala Kirsten Gilibrand. 2) Be a bona-fide lefty with some crossover appeal. Warren and Sanders both fit this.

I agree, but I think Beto has done a ton to improve his name recognition in prospective crossover (white) voters. The real work is going to come in turning out all the Dems. Results from the primary in South Texas shows there were way too many hispanics who just didn't know who he was. His task is herculean: continue rural outreach while also turning out the more reluctant but solidly Democratic votes. He has the money and I believe the campaign infrastructure in place to do it better than anyone. The question is if it is even possible in 2018.

The base's shift to the left will come into play in the 2020 primary. I don't know about Hickenlooper, but true centrists like Jim Webb will have trouble gaining traction barring a real surge in primary voter turnout, as the case may be if a celebrity throws his/her hat into the ring. A centrist won't beat a leftist straight up, but it all depends on who decides to run. We'll have to see if the leftist vote gets split between multiple candidates, like if Sanders and Warren both run. Then I think a centrist could go deep into the primary. This is maybe the one area where I think the party apparatus exerts some control.

Yes, I think the base has swung to the left since 2016, but that isn't why I think she has no chance in 2020. Hillary happened not because she was more centrist (otherwise Webb would have polled above background noise levels), but because there were really only 3 or 4 legit candidates in 2016 and she clobbered them all in name recognition. Even Bernie was virtually unknown outside of Vermont until 2015. There was no shame in losing to the first black president in 2008, but losing to Trump? I can't foresee how she'll recover from that. She no longer dominates the news like she did in the 90's, or when she was a senator, or a member of Obama's cabinet. The Republicans seem to care an awful lot about her for some bizarre reason, but the Democratic base has moved on to other candidates who check most of the same boxes. tl;dr version: she's dead, Jim.

You're thinking too much about the party head-honchos. Their power, small to begin with, is fading fast, as all evidence since 2016 indicates. Voters, the people who matter, won't pull the lever for Hillary no matter what the DNC tries to say. She is roadkill in a hypothetical 6-way primary with Warren, Gilibrand, Hickenlooper, Booker, and Biden. I've been involved in liberal/progressive activist groups since the election, basically the base of the Democratic Party. Out of a group where about 40% went for Hillary over Bernie in the 2016 primary, I can say with confidence that nobody in that 40% is still excited for her. People throw around a dozen names for 2020. Her name is mentioned as a running joke and nothing more.