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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Don't mistake Surly opinion as a microcosm of overall opinion in the West. The real contrarians are the guys like Zeihan. All of our war games show the US losing at least an aircraft carrier. Nobody who matters is downplaying this threat and, if anything, its the China hawks like Bass who hold more sway over actual policymaking.
  2. Coulda joined the Pac when y'all had the chance
  3. Now that they are cutting supply, costs will go up and new players will come online and ramp up their own production. Won't happen overnight, but China is either going to back track or they will be out of the raw materials market.
  4. I thought I heard the Russians set a daily record for number of missiles launched at Ukraine yesterday. It would have been easy to annihilate the Wagner column if there was consensus to do so.
  5. So not only has Putin invited more usurpers with his indecisiveness, but then they will be sure not to take the deal.
  6. My brain isn't making sense of what my eyeballs are seeing. Dictators shouldn't lose elections.
  7. 538 did an article on the Montana top 2 primary stuff last week and why they don't think it will change much. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jon-tester-montana-2024-election/ Basically, many indies don't like Ds or Rs, according to exit polls, and will sit out the runoff. Even if they all show up for the runoff, the R would need to pull them at a 2 to 1 clip to close a hypothetical 1 percent gap with Tester.
  8. you mean a double digit curb-stomping?
  9. Few days old already but I'm guessing the GOP internals don't look good if they're pulling this garbage.
  10. The legislature just overrode Beshear's veto and passed the country's most restrictive anti-trans bills into law. Is that his fault?
  11. You live in California? That's hilarious!
  12. The CSA is dominated by American citizens of Chinese descent, who will dwarf the number of actual foreign Chinese students at any university in CA. The bigger red flag would be a foreign CSA president of a third tier state university hobnobbing with influential Bay Area politicians.
  13. Alameda County spelling bee co-finalists
  14. All sensitive stuff done nowadays should be line-of-sight at microwave frequencies, if not done through fiber optics underground. There isn't much done with omni-directional transmitters anymore. This thing got a nice listen to police scanners, citizens band, and shitty AM radio.
  15. It's much more valuable left in the air so we can gather counter-intelligence while it's functional.
  16. You think CA Dem voters shouldn't choose their nominee for Senate? How do you think the nominee should be selected?
  17. Jesus Christ this thread, and I mean #bothsides. So many bad takes. A highly contested primary with lots of good candidates running is what should happen in a state like CA that means so much for Democratic politics. It's nobody's turn. It's not chaotic, it's democracy. The people will decide.
  18. She's smart enough to know she doesn't stand a chance in a 3-way race against Gallego and an Republican. Her play was to prevent another Dem from jumping in. Oops. This is a woman who speaks the language of money. If Sinema thinks she might end up on the short end of the stick financially, she'll tuck her tail between her legs and retire before 2025. I fully expect Gallego to issue a press release glorifying his fundraising haul over the past month or so. All that said, I do not share the confidence of y'all that Gallego would win a 3-way either. Just enough batshit R voters and not enough margin for error for the Ds.
  19. Somewhere I read that normally the speaker sets rather strict rules on where the cameras can look in the House chamber, or maybe its voted on in the rules package. Well we don't have either yet so the cameras are panning around showing members doing weird stuff, like this guy vaping and AOC chatting with Gosar.
  20. Naw. I'm starting to really think people are sick and tired of the bullshit. The electorate had its chance to be collectively stupid in November but many unexpected instances of wisdom occurred instead. Defaulting on our debt is going to suck, but I think we can pick ourselves up off the mat.
  21. Nobody knowledgeable made such observations. The initial strain out of Wuhan had an R0 in the 2 to 4 range, about double the flu but in line with other coronaviruses and the common cold. The severity also was well within the range of naturally occurring coronavirus infection, between the nastier ones like SARS and MERS and the harmless ones that cause the cold. The original strain had a lot to improve upon, which it eventually did in the form of omicron by ordinary natural mutation and selection.
  22. That shit deal would serve this cord-cutting Prime subscriber just fine.
  23. Stanford turns to a Cal guy to fix the football program and he probably will. He's very well connected to high schools across the west coast. FML
  24. Her problem will be no different than 99% of independents/3rd party candidates, not enough electoral space left. Both parties probably have a floor of at least 35%, which already means she is short. If Gallego runs, she will retire.
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