I'm typing this all out for my own benefit. Not covering any new territory that hasn't already been covered in this thread. If it helps someone else keep it all straight, great.
There are 7 teams that could conceivably end up ahead of us in the final rankings. We need 4 or more of these to end up below us. In alphabetical order, they are:
Alabama - vs Georgia, +5.5, Saturday 3:00 PM. Should be below us with a win, due to head-to-head result, but the committee will still be very tempted by a 1-loss SEC champion Bama. Will certainly fall below us with a loss.
Florida State - vs Louisville, -2.5, Saturday 7:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Would fall below us with a loss (as a 1-loss team that did not win its conference).
Georgia - vs Alabama, -5.5, Saturday 3:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Should be below us with a loss, as a team that didn't win its conference. Committee might be tempted a little by SEC SEC SEC and recent run of dominance, especially if it's a close loss against Bama.
Michigan - vs Iowa, -23.0, Saturday 7:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Should fall below us with a loss as a team that didn't win its conference.
Ohio State - no game. Did not win its conference, therefore should be below us in final rankings. Would be major committee fuckery otherwise.
Oregon - vs Washington, -9.5, Friday 7:00 PM. With a win, Oregon's position relative to us would be a pure beauty contest. Best to assume they'd be ahead of us. Would fall below us with a loss.
Washington - vs Oregon, +9.5, Friday 7:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Would fall below us with a loss as a team that didn't win its conference.
So Ohio State and the Pac-12 loser will be below us no matter what. The Pac-12 winner is probably above us no matter what. So we need any 2 of the SEC loser, FSU, and Michigan to end up below us. Probably not happening with Michigan. We need Louisville to come through badly. I think we want Georgia to win the SEC, so as to knock Bama completely out of consideration. There's a chance that a Bama win could put us ahead of both SEC teams, but that's risky.
For the Pac-12 championship, we probably want Oregon to win. We know that Washington will be above us with a win. There's a (small?) chance that Oregon could end up behind us even with a win.
Rooting interests this weekend, in order: Louisville/Iowa >>> Georgia > Oregon.