Yeah whoever is perceived as being in 2nd place after spring of '24 is gone. There's no point in Murphy transferring before the '23 season, unless someone makes him a big NIL offer, which probably won't happen. He was highly ranked, has a giant arm, put some nice things on tape in the 2023 spring game, comes from a known quantity development-wise, and has been a fine citizen so far. If he can show some good stuff in mop-up duty this year and next spring, he'll have mid-tier or better programs falling all over themselves to hand him the keys to the kingdom for the '24 season.
Our backup in '24 is not currently on the roster unless Wright just really, really fucking loves it here and they've offered him a nice grad assistant gig when he finishes. Much more likely, it will be a grad transfer that wants to play school, or maaaybe Trey Owens if he's an early enrollee. We'll be hunting 5-star recruits for the 2025 recruiting class.
All this assume that Ewers leaves. Doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion to me, but a lot of smarter people than me seem to think so.