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Everything posted by Hurtlocker
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If one Pac school leaves, its over. The flood gates will open. They can function at 10 with what they have, but there is no one left at 9 to fill the loss.
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pretty sure this is the answer.
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This same guy also said the current Pac deal is a mix of CBS Prime and ESPN Latenight, along with streaming. Still going to be hard to get to $300m with only two linear a week, at $7m a game and a CCG that maxes out around $200m. They'd need $100m for the rest.
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If Dodds report is true, and since it came from a B12 exec I'm not giving it 100, but ESPN is running out of rights money and wants the NBA, shits going to get fun over the next few weeks. There are four spots on the Big 12's boat, who wants them.
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Yes
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The most difficult part of this isn't even getting the deal, its that each round of realignment makes conferences ante up the damages to leaving more and more. If you're not Oregon and Washington, you want like a 20 year GoR, if you're Oregon and Washington, you want just the next media deal. No one is ever going to feel secure or happy from now on.
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The Big 12's was signed in 2012 and ACC's was a few years later. These are not archaic documents. Also, not sure how it loses in court so easily. If so, why even negotiate, why create and sign them in the first place. If it would fail most times, the lawyer's fees to break it wouldn't get close to the $80m exit fee. The big hold up with the Big 12 change wasn't conference buyouts, that was worked out in the last two years of withheld payments. The issue was the grant of rights and Fox. They would reduce payment for the Big 12 for no Texas/OU in 2024, which would have forced the B12 to not negotiate the rights out if they weren't even. Once Fox got the Michigan/Texas game in 2024, everyone was happy and they could part ways even in the rights department.
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Yeah, outside the 1984 case giving the rights back to schools, not really. But that was a different structure completely. States do control their rights now and do assign what occurs with them. That's what the GoR is for. I also am not aware of any because normally they aren't the topic of conversation. We provided this thing for you to make us money on it for a set amount of time. It's like most advertising or signage deals through IMG or another. Its too expensive, fee wise, to do it one year at a time, so they bundle it together for multi-year deals. They're far more helpful to the school than harmful.
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Yeah I'm with you. Last year KState was 10 with a 9-3 record, over other B1G and Pac 2 loss teams, but they would have been in due to the CCG anyway. The overall point isn't it won't ever happen, schedules being schedules, results being results, etc. It is that moving to 16 teams, instead of 10 or 12 or 14, you can have more 2 loss teams, making it harder for a 3 loss to break into the top four. Its not that they ever won't, it is just that the table is set to have more options for less losses. Its also not that its about 3 loss beating a 2 loss of another conference, it is will that 3 loss make it out of their own conference ranks. The fourth ranked team in any conference is usually going to have some concerns on their schedule.
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Agree man, totally. My argument is that it is just easy to negate the contract. It is not. Negotiations on the other hand, that's exactly how it will happen.
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There is a major difference between negotiating the end of an agreement and breaking it in court. Also Sovereign Immunity doesn't mean the state isn't bound to contracts it signs, it just means, very generally, that the state can't be prosecuted. In this case, no one needs to sue the states. The States would need to sue the ACC to get their rights back.
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But, it isn't really. They signed a deal for monetary gain with a duration to it. Due to the fact that it has a duration, and they will get their rights back - it isn't into perpetuity, it is pretty tight. Its a bit like Muni bonds that states use all the time. You give me money to build something, I pay you per year for it, then at the end of the contract you get your money back. The fact that you want more money in the middle of the deal doesn't make it invalid. No one is screwing over FSU/Clemson, they chose this deal. All the judge has to do is point at the bottom and ask, "but, you signed this right? You wanted it, right? This person had the legal authority to sign this, right?" "Yes, but someone else got more 4 years later" isn't really a valid argument. ESPN could easily counter with the costs of building a network for the ACC and how much FSU owes for that creation, which was built off the understanding that FSU/Clemson and everyone else, would be there to defray the costs over time. Not to mention the reams of evidence of the number of eyeballs they aren't bringing in vs the deal they think they're entitled. I know we all want GoR's to be like gotcha traps, but they are not. Don't sign them if you don't want them, period.
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The rights are owned by the ACC, not ESPN. ESPN leases them from the ACC. The Grant of Rights is not between FSU and ESPN, its between FSU and the ACC. So moving to the SEC would just mean whatever FSU/Clemson were paid, would go to the ACC, not those schools.
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$120m is just for the ACC buyout, 3 years of revenue (including tourny, bowl games, post season, its bigger than the broadcast). You need to negotiate out of the GoR too, which is only broadcast rights. 13 years x 240m yearly = $3.12b left on the deal. To buy the rights out of that is somewhere in the neighborhood of $234m if they're worth 7%, or up to $468m, if they're worth 15%. For above, I factored half of the lowest number, adding up to around $250m all in with GoR negotiations and ACC buyout.
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I think it will be somewhere in the neighborhood of a quarter billion, at this point, all in with buyout and GoR negotiation. So who is picking them up? Honestly, I still cannot believe FSU/Clemson signed that deal. They wanted their own network so badly they signed away all the cash.
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That didn't work for George Michael, or the Beatles, or Lil Kim, or Taylor Swift. If you signed it in good faith, and you agreed to the media deal, and you're being paid on that media deal as was structured at signing, you're not irreparably harmed by the decision you made. Florida State and Clemson could have left the ACC before signing that agreement, AND they would have made more money. But they chose not to, no one forced them. They can bitch, but they're stuck without someone writing a gigantic check to free them.
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On the first, it really comes down to how deep value goes and how many spots are left. The way the ACC/B12 are set up, it is favorable that they could get a second team in far more often than they won't. This is due to them placing their top two teams in the CCG. Both can consistently, but not always, make a compelling argument that the winner gets the bye and the loser ends up in one of the final four seeds. Then there is the ND factor. They don't take a bye, but they can take an at large. With their brand size, they'll get the benefit of the doubt. So how often do they make the cut? I kind of guessed every other year, but whatever number you believe will work here. An easy solution would just be that ND fills in the years where one of the B12/ACC don't have a wild card, that way we can count those three groups as having 2 total wild cards a year in total. Matter a fact, i'd add the Pac 10. E.g. the B12/ACC/PAC/ND will share 2 wild cards in any given year. That leaves us 4 spots for the B1G and SEC. The limit of 6 is the factor here because now the 4th best team in the B1G/SEC has to have a compelling story to tell as to why they deserve in over a team that played in a CCG (or ND). Did they beat all the teams above them? If not, why do we care? Its far easier to make a case for the 3rd - the team that just missed out on the CCG, the loser of Ohio State/Michigan, etc. Last year would look like this: Byes: Clemson, Michigan, Kansas State, Georgia, Utah, Tulane Wild Cards: TCU, Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, USC, Penn State. ACC - 1, B1G - 3, B12 - 2, SEC - 3, Pac - 2, AAC - 1 That's pretty much how I think the count will look the majority of the time, with that last extra team floating between the ACC/B12/Pac/ND, last year it just happened to the the Pac and B12 who got it. (I see what you said with USC, but you can't just move them, they didn't play a B1G conference record so the losses aren't against the B1G, the B12 wouldn't get 3 in if Utah or Tulane joined. Agree that USC definitely will always be in the hunt for the B1G's top seeds with OSU/Mich/Penn State though.) On your second point, yes agree completely. Seems the Pac administrators are where the B12 was in 2009-10, which is "what? no one would do that" Also, agree, I don't think the B12 would grab anyone for 5-10 years nor take Oregon State nor Washington State. If Arizona and Colorado come, odds are high you can get Arizona State. That leaves one spot for 16. They don't have a lot of benefit going past 16 at this point. I also think they could wait it out to the next contract too. They're secure at the moment, the only one walking the razor's edge is the Pac and changing their situation requires someone throwing them a bone. Its really just a question of if someone decides to take it.
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For the B1G I had the math break out to be more like: 16 = 2.5 teams per year 18 = 2.9 20 = 3.2 It diminishes a bit, because there is still only 6 spots to fill, grabbing half of them requires that either something else goes horribly wrong with everyone else, or someone else isn't at the table any longer. Also, if the B12 goes up to 16 they'll have less losses too, which will improve someone's chances. Its messy math and won't every follow through year over year. If I were the Big Ten, I'd stay at 16 until ND raises its hand. If I were Oregon and Washington, I'd be negotiating to be the big dogs of the B12, with two friends. If I'm the Big 12, i just want one to start it, but I want Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, in that order.
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This is the most accurate thing he's ever written and its not really a news flash. Texas/USC is the largest college football audience of all time at 35m, but this was a championship. Ohio State and Georgia, to behemoth brands in the sport, drew a 9.8 rating (e.g. 9.8% of all people watching TV at that time slot in the US were watching this game) with 22m people for their semi final this year. That's an insane amount of viewership. Big brands, at their best, slugging it out for an entire game. And they did it with their hands tied on new years eve, which has proven to have about a 20-28% smaller audience than years when that calendar quirk doesn't occur. That means the game could have been around 28m viewers normally. TCU, who is not a national brand, and Michigan had an audience of 21.75m and a 10 rating for their semi. TCU. Now, the natty blew for an audience, but that's because the game was over 5 minutes in. You need to go down to the wire (e.g. Texas/USC) for the colossal ratings to occur. But the point is that TCU probably drew as big of an audience in one game as they did in all of their games in the regular season. The exposure jump is gigantic and now it is going to be ramped up higher. Conference championship games will be higher because the winner gets to play and the loser has to pray. The first round gives games on campus 10 days later - where there were never games to watch before. Then we get into this massive window we have now. November-January will control college football and the teams who get there often will become the new kings of the sport. Add to this that they are expected to pay out 1.2b yearly and it will be broken up by team count for conferences, with an adder for participation, and playing in the top 12 will become a barometer for the haves and have-nots. Let's say they pay out with 20% going to some sort of player benefit, be it stipends or increased medical or whatever. The remaining 80% could be split 25% on participants and 75% on team count for conferences. That means each team in a conference could make $9m each for doing nothing. Now the 12 teams, if you paid them the remaining value and factored byes as win, means you have 8 games to pay out. That means each win could earn you roughly $15m. Bow out in the first round, $15m. Get a bye by winning a CCG, you made $30m. Win the natty, you made $60m - on top of your conference take. The other way of doing it, which i think they'll likely end up doing, is rolling shares like they use for March Madness. This way the swings are not so great, and the conferences control the money, not the teams. In short, there is a baseline payment valued by team in the conference (sorry Pac, you don't get the benefit the B12 used) and then participation shares for who plays, and wins. There are about 22 shares to be earned per year, depending on how you break it up. If you get in 3 teams and win it, you could net about 10 shares, or 45% of that year's pot. Put that on a rolling 3 year average and you can see where the B1G/SEC start to benefit greatly. This got super long without needing to be because I'm in a meeting I don't need to be in. But the point is the off season is now going to eclipse the regular season in value. All that matters now, to remain relevant, is making it into the December games.
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I'd be interested to see how many of Cali's were SoCal. I'd guess the vast majority.
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Hahaha, yeah that decision could end up elevating Utah and Colorado or something. Oregon and Washington need to make their best long term deal now, and live with it. They're going to be T1 in a Pac10, but little to no exposure. T1 in the B12 with a lot more exposure and T2 in the Big Ten with a lot more money, but a lot less clout. That's basically it.
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Most damning quote in that article: "Consultants tell us FSU is paid 7%, but worth 15% of the ACC's contract" ACC's contract = $240m/year FSU's estimated value per year = $33.6m No offense to our favorite Nole, but it seems we've been overestimating the brand power of FSU.
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Apparently now the Big Ten does
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Future OOC Schedules - What should they look like?
Hurtlocker replied to DFW Horn's topic in Football
I think the ACC is still following the SEC on this one, because of games like FSU/Florida, Clemson/SC, Kentucky/Louisville. As soon as the SEC moves, the ACC will as well, and you're right, they'll see a programming bump - to the tune of about a 12% revenue increase. -
Future OOC Schedules - What should they look like?
Hurtlocker replied to DFW Horn's topic in Football
Had this in another topic, but I think the CFB Playoff needs to require a more standardized scheduling. It's never going to be perfect, but at least get close: 9 conference games 2 H-H series with another P5 conference, so every year you have a home and away, next year swap, then get a new team (unless its a rivalry) 1 - FBS group of five home game for cash and exposure. ZERO FCS allowed, outside scheduling one in a spring game. That gives everyone 12 FBS games and 11 P5 games and should provide 6.5 home games a year. The consistency should also provide a larger value to tv contracts and put a lot more losses on crappy teams who feed on weak schedules.
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