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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Does Florida State or any ACC power actually have options? Revenue gap concerns threaten to split league Top ACC teams have legitimate concerns about competing with the SEC and Big Ten
  2. Big 12 in contact with Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah as Pac-12 media rights future remains uncertain The "Four Corners" schools may be looking elsewhere with the Pac-12 in the midst of contentious media rights negotiation
  3. TLDR: He's still quoting audience numbers from 2014-20, ignoring that the B12 got their current deal because the games outside TX/OU have seen a 50% increase in viewership the last few years. First time I've seen it listed that Yormark believes basketball is undervalued and wants to unbundle and sell it separate in the next deal. Pac getting jumpy. Jumpy is never good. This came from a Pac mouthpiece, also not a good sign for the Pac.
  4. Former Oregon head coach and athletic director Mike Bellotti says he believes the league could collapse with the pending departure of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten ahead of the 2024 football season. "I have that impending sense of doom," he told CBS Sports. "All my life, I've always been a West Coast guy... I can just see [the Pac-12] falling apart." Bellotti added that the Pac-12 is "teetering on the brink."
  5. no matter the thread, i got ya
  6. PAC mouthpiece, behind wall. Pac-12 media rights: Our (final) predictions for the revenue, media partners, expansion decisions and more
  7. Yeah it was never TCU vs Louisville. TCU was in for one primary reason, 2 games in Texas after A&M left for everyone every year with H/Hs. TCU's competition was Houston, not Louisville/WVU. No one wanted 5 teams in Texas though, so the loser was out. The debate for 10 was Louisville vs WVU, with WVU winning. To get Louisville the Big 12 would have had to go to 11, or find another like Memphis to get to 12, but there was no appetite for the 12th option at the time. Then Maryland left for the Big Ten and FSU/Clemson started flirting with the Big 12 after the SEC started up the SECN. The ACC added Louisville to provide another "football" school to go with their ND deal. They signed the ACCN, everyone is happy. Until they're not.
  8. Has it? Has a school started really out kicking their own coverage? Have schools who never ever got blue chips before getting entire platoons of them? Or is bag men money just over the table now and the ones who always got them, still keep getting them? I really haven't seen any titanic changes. Most of the big, highly publicized deals have flopped (How's that $30m doing in College Station?). The deals we kind of expected, where someone uses their regional celebrity status to hawk goods for a local business, are successful. The transfer portal has had a bigger impact than NIL so far, and that seems to have both helped and hurt the haves and have nots rather equally.
  9. Only the Big12 teams could at this point, in 2031. The ACC is locked up until 2036 and the Pac is still up in the air.
  10. I think his main point, which seems both simple and accurate to me, is that they weren't getting 5 stars before, so not being able to keep up with paying 5 stars now isn't going to be some monumental change.
  11. Pretty sure they have one because the Big12's can go down to a single remaining member and most of the ACC's bylaw/GoR changes occurred with the B12's help after the FSU/Clemson noise last time. They went tougher on everything than the B12 did. UVA/UNC won't dissolve the ACC unless the world has ended. And by world ending I don't mean they got an invite to the Big Ten. I mean world ending like the Big Ten and SEC have chosen to dissolve their own conferences to merge into a bigger entity and invited the ACC teams to join. That is literally the only way I can see UVA/UNC leaving the ACC.
  12. The playoff is about ready to triple its payout. The ACC currently makes $80m a year off the CFB post season and about $240 on the regular. That means in 2024, half of their revenue could come from the post season. FSU and Clemson are making noise to say "we're not splitting that evenly" That's what's happening.
  13. This is the part that I think is not only spot on but also the most ironic. The blue chips are still going to go where they are going now, it's just going to cost more to get them. Programs that develop 3 stars are still going to be programs who develop 3 stars. Its not like they had a bunch of 5s and now they can't get them any more. In a sense, the biggest brands are able to cash in now, but will also end up paying more to trade paint with historic peers on the recruiting front.
  14. Should it turn the corner and athletes are classified as employees a lot will change. First, no need to provide full scholarships, so some will come directly from that. Since most schools are over $20k in state, let alone out of state, its just a wash. Second, should the employee situation occur, it will likely be followed very closely by a player's association/unionization. It wouldn't be a stretch to see salary caps and minimums worked into that deal, like nearly every professional league. There will still be a benefit to the Yankees of the world, but the wild wild west days will be over. Unregulated NIL favors the big brands far, far more than player reclassification into employees would. That helps the smaller programs.
  15. Well, you'll be happy to learn then that BYU will make about $100m more than FSU for regular season media rights during the duration of the new B12 deal.
  16. Yeah, i don't even think B1G money is enough. Florida will make about $450m more than FSU over 13 years. FSU is looking at $470m in a GoR PLUS $120m buyout. There just isn't a number big enough to make it make sense until 2036.
  17. And for conversation sake, 15% of the current ACC contract is around $470m, or FSU is valued at about $36m a year - according to them.
  18. I don't see the forcing a settlement thing, but they could offer it as an option. Its a financial contract, you're ceding the rights to something for someone else to monetize on your behalf. So making the deal whole is a financial remedy. The ACC, nor ESPN as their partner, doesn't have to accept, but that's how to get out of a GoR. That being said, if FSU is being paid $17m now. Either they are not worth enough to make a lot more OR the ACC is worth so little that they lose a lot with FSU leaving.
  19. Yeah, I'm with you and I can see the possibility, but I just don't think the "all brands in one place" will play out. That in its own right probably means it will happen. I thought Florida was a good place for the B1G to start planting flags to reach a few years ago, before they secured LA. SoCal is worth more to the B1G than any property in Florida, by a sizable margin. They likely could get more in the next deal with Arizona/Colorado, than FSU/Clemson - primarily based off playing T1 games in every time zone all day. And, if they were to go the other way and move to Florida, there isn't a need to rush to that either. When the Big Ten picked up Maryland and Rutgers BTN was a massive part of their revenue. In the new set up, its big, but a much smaller percentage of their overall revenues. At this point it doesn't matter, to the Big Ten, where Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or USC play...just that they play. Also, contracts were aligned to do it on the cheap. FSU does not have that advantage so its a decade out regardless. Lastly, consolidation of brands does have a point of diminishing returns. You want about 20-30% of your total to be big brands for maximum value. If you have less than that, you cannot maximize your biggest games. If you have more than that you start to lose the shine because you add more losses. There is no world where a 4 loss Ohio State has the same value as a no-loss Ohio State. Zero worlds. Will they be better than a 4 loss Baylor? Yup, but they're not getting the same buzz you need for top value.
  20. Its sort of six of one there. By and large people do watch brands, but what they watch are good games, meaning they go down to the wire, against teams with something at stake. If one of those teams is a brand, its multiplied. If the brands suck and are getting blown out, they turn it off.
  21. Here's the bigger problem. USC/UCLA and Texas/OU could move, because they were able to fund that move. UVA/UNC isn't worth $100m. FSU/Miami are not worth $75m. If they were, they wouldn't be being paid $17m The ACC exists as it is for a reason, and you can see very clearly on ESPN. It is a basketball property, who also plays some football. ESPNs top games are Duke/UNC, all the time, even when Duke/UNC suck. They are constantly promoting those brands, like they're constantly promoting Alabama/Georgia. And then, you get some football played and teams get ranked so that gives you a boost, but a lot die on the ACCN. They're 75% basketball, 25% football. So the B1G/SEC are big, massive football brand conferences, who also play some basketball (75/25)= big football money The Big 12 has crazy basketball and also has fervent football fanbases, but not as brands (50/50)= hybrid money The ACC has basketball brands, who also play some football (25/75)= basketball money The Pac 12 had USC (football)/UCLA (basketball) with no other real defined marketing cache outside Olympic championships. Yes Oregon is a known brand in football and Arizona is a T2 basketball brand, but, they're not USC/UCLA. Napkin valuations on what's left would probably have me lay it out this way: 60+m = none 50+m = FSU, Oregon, UW, UNC 40+m = Arizona, ASU, Clemson 30+m = Colorado, Stanford, Cal, UVA, VTech, Miami 20+m = Utah, WSU, NCSt, Duke, etc etc None of these schools bring enough value any more to the B1G/SEC. You will start to water down the valuations because there aren't any more inventory slots left. So you have FSU join the SEC, that pushes one current game back to the SEC Network. The only way Oregon/UW/Stanford/Cal get to the Big Ten is if the Big Ten negotiates a new late night deal with ESPN and those schools go to it. But it won't pay the Big Ten $400m, it may make $200m, so they'd come in at half and at the next contract everyone would make slightly less to catch them up. The only real move left is either uneven sharing of post season revenues, or move to the Big 12. If your conference is making $20, but you're worth $40, everyone is rising off that $20m difference. But if you're worth $40 and they're worth $32, now you're rising more to your level, everyone makes more. Oregon/FSU are paid like $20m in their current deal, but $35 in that move. You make less than you're worth, but you're much closer. At the end of the day, I think they all stay and we see some form of uneven sharing, a bonus structure if you get into the CFP playoff and/or generate a lot of shares in the NCAA tournament. Because if they pay FSU for football, UVA/Duke/UNC will want the basketball.
  22. Man I'd love a promotion/relegation with like three levels of 24 (though it would most likely need to be 6 of 12, so everyone can play everyone else). It would implode any notion of geography and travel would be horrendous, but it would be fun. The only way you could do it is pool ALL conference media rights into one group. Then what likely would happen is you break it back out to regions with a champion pool. 1 - Champion's league of 12 with its own playoff at the end, bottom 3 drop back down. 6 - Regional Tier one 12 team geographic leagues. (NE, SE, MW, SW, NW, SoCal?) Each bracket sends their champ and their are 6 wildcards in a year end tourney. Top three teams in the tourney are promoted. You could also have relegation here too, but to smaller conferences. So perhaps the MW relegates to the MAC, the SE to the Sunbelt, etc. The logistics to manage the rising and falling teams over the massive geography of the US would be daunting. But you could do it.
  23. No, the GoR basically means you gave your rights to someone at a price you agreed to. This is FSU's self created mess. If they didn't like it, they shouldn't have signed.
  24. Yeah this is the opening salvo. The CFP playoff, which pays the ACC about $80m a year now, is going to be worth 3x more in 2024 and who knows how much more in 2026 when it can be fully bid. That means the ACC is likely coming into a financial windfall soon. FSU and Clemson are saying, "that's ours"
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