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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Alabama vs a lottery pick of the remaining ties
  2. Couple things: Rutgers wasn't "derated" as it isn't just Rutgers' fans watching. They may have been the school in realignment since 2010 that has brought the most financial benefit to their conference and that is only because the Big Ten was structured to take advantage of it with BTN. They went from gaining around $0.25 per household in NYC prior to around $1.25+ after. That equates to roughly $180m a year for BTN alone (Fox likely saw a bump in FS1/FS2 in bundling them as well). It really doesn't matter if Rutgers ever wins a game again, or ever has a game off BTN, the flag is planted, and Rutgers paid for itself many times over. Cal and Rutgers definitely share some academic connections, and Cal is in the middle of the San Fran-Oakland-SJ DMA, but that's kind of where the similarities end. When the B1G picked up UCLA/USC, it netted them the second largest market with LA, giving BTN the Top 3 in NYC/LA/Chicago, with Penn State being a significant draw in #4, Philly. Even with LA being #2, it is 2m households smaller than NYC (e.g. a gap the size of the Miami or Minneapolis market), so USC's brand in football and UCLA's in basketball was needed. Cal is known, and sometimes they're good, but they're not really a brand like USC. On top of that, while the NoCal market is definitely a draw, it is less than half the size of LA. The gap between NoCal and NYC is around the size of DFW and Houston - combined.
  3. If not financial, definitely bigger exposure. The Big 12's new deal is going to get them about: 25-30 games on ESPN, where ESPN is paying priority for the best 20 of that group 20 games combined on Fox/FS1, where likely 8-10 will be Fox 20 games on ESPN+ It would shock me if the Big 12 doesn't at least share the featured Thursday slot on ESPN with the ACC, which leaves about 30 games on ESPN/ABC/FOX throughout the year, likely running off slot to SEC/Big Ten (e.g. SEC on ABC, Big 12 on ESPN, or on ESPN opposite Big Noon). With ESPN having ACC/SEC/B12 (2/3rds) and FOX having 1/3rd of the Big 12 and two games a week for the Big Ten, the only slots left are AfterDark for the Pac. I'm just not sure where they go for windows.
  4. Pac-12 should be concerned about visibility, not value compared to Big 12 as new media rights deal nears
  5. New Brunswick is located within the NYC DMA. Rutgers will never pull an audience like the Giants, but BTN gets to count all 7m households at premium carriage/ad rates.
  6. The nerdiest realignment article you'll ever read (or not read, no judgement): Tessier-Lavigne says conference realignment conversations are underway at Faculty Senate meeting
  7. Probably a Pac12 leak as a shot towards the Big 12 for the Gonzaga press
  8. There's a lot to this. A lot of programs are really defined by a long time coach. A few programs get more than one. Schools that are always shedding coaches rarely get there.
  9. There is no way they'd kick out Rutgers and Maryland. Even if neither ever wins a game, they're worth so much to BTN - roughly $250M a year. UCLA/USC add around $130m/year. Missouri isn't in that camp.
  10. That seems to be how they are in the SEC too.
  11. It still is a lot. It makes sense to me if two things are in play: First: Someone around Spokane to double up non-football scheduling. Say, maybe, someone who plays in Seattle. I am not sure its likely, but let's pretend for a second the Big 12 absorbs the bigger names in the Pac; namely Oregon, Washington, Arizona, maybe Stanford. Basically the ones who play basketball. Six gets you to 18, Eight gets you to 20. Second: Get to 20, 22, or 24 by plucking off the best of the best basketball only brands near big markets; for the hell of it, just to pick some names I'm not arguing over who killed who, let's say those are Creighton, Gonzaga, Xavier, Villanova, and someone like St Johns, Marquette, etc. Now you split into two divisions of ten to twelve for non-football (*possible tourney team): West: Arizona*, ASU, Baylor*, BYU*, Cal, Colorado, Gonzaga*, Oregon*, TCU*, Texas Tech*, Utah, Washington* etc etc East: Cinci*, Creighton*, Iowa State*, Kansas*, KState, Marquette*, Oklahoma State*, UCF, Villanova*, West Virginia*, Xavier* etc You play everyone in yours and half of the other for 18 games, mix and match, but you rarely have UCF going to Gonzaga. With the amount of basketball talent listed above, it could have legs if Fox was interested in blowing out basketball as a way to increase the pie, since they don't have the pro rata. MBB is less, but it adds up and you could have games on all day. It makes little sense though if you're not making the travel circle less for everyone by dividing the country into two. Or flying everyone 2000 miles extra for one school in a corner. How does that pay for itself?
  12. 3,000 miles to send your volleyball team from Orlando to Spokane, on a Tuesday, is longer than going from Orlando to Ames and back. There's a difference.
  13. That's a long way to travel for basketball. Unless, you know, you're already headed there.
  14. Also seems to only be for P5 schools.
  15. So, are the PAC games going to be better?
  16. Also, they're taking a bath currently on their $1b TNF deal. Not that it will always continue this way, but it may make them less likely to write big checks to games averaging a fraction of their worst NFL game.
  17. Fox owns half the contract with the Big 12, which is where Texas and Oklahoma's rights through 2025 currently reside. They alternate picks with ESPN on a weekly basis. With two years remaining ESPN will get the Red River once and Fox will get it once. It's not giving up that game for free and the Big 12 isn't planning to lose money in the next two years. So that means someone is writing a check. As long as everyone wants Fox writing it, which seems to be the way it is playing out, then they have a very big say. Remember as well, there are two sets of exit dollars that need negotiated: The Grant of Rights and the Conference Exit Fees. The Conference fees are 2 years of revenue, basically the value of the last two years the school is in the conference. This could be negotiated down, sure, but basically will work one of two ways: The Big 12 will withhold 2 years of revenue or The exiting school will write a check for the negotiated value of those two years. Unless the check has been sent in now, the Big 12 won't be sending any revenues for the next two years regardless because the announcement has been made. Guarantee you Texas and Oklahoma have budgeted for that. The Grant of Rights is a bit trickier and is where you get Fox involved again. At the moment Texas and Oklahoma don't own their own rights. They can't do anything with them and they have zero leverage in getting them back. If they left for the SEC tomorrow ESPN couldn't broadcast their home games without the Big 12's approval (except the one game that drops to T3, but that is determined by what broadcast partners don't want) and, if they had the approval, all of the money involved in that game would go to the Big 12, not the SEC. As the bylaws are written, the schools are not even entitled to that money if they leave as part of their agreement of signing the bylaws and GoR. So, again, could they negotiate it out? Of course, but in this case the negotiation will start with the Big 12 not wanting to lose money, and Fox telling them how much it will cost, and then that's what ESPN will need to fork over just to bring the games in early. Oh, and the buyout would be on top of whatever was paid out if revenue was being withheld for this. GoRs are tough. Do you think the Mouse would love to have Spiderman back? They would and they have far more to spend on lawyers than universities - but Marvel signed a GoR. So they're going to spend more now, to get Texas and OU early, when they already pay for Texas and OU? It's a mess and, more importantly, a mess that has a super simple, non-messy, no legal fees or court time solution. Just wait two years - the GoR goes away magically on its own. The powers that be know no one will remember in a decade so its not worth the hassle.
  18. Its about $22m currently. It will pay less in the first years and more in the later, most have a 4-5% yearly escalator for inflation. Pro Rata - this is the amazing one if true: 1 - Yes. When they announce the averages, that's the middle, so in this case, year three. At the beginning it will be about 15% less, at the end of the six, about 15% more. The Big 12 was due a big raise before UT/OU left, what they seemed to have done here is maintained the same trajectory on a per team basis. So if Oklahoma State was going to make $27m in 2025, if they kept the same yearly bump it would go to $30, $33, etc etc. The big difference is multiply that by 12 instead of 8 or 10, so they didn't lose money by adding, they just didn't gain more value. It would have been closer to $50m if Texas and Oklahoma had stayed. 2 - Jack Squat. This reads like a very big exposure bump for the Big 12. Fox has the worst picks and about 40% of the content and gets 2 games a week. ESPN has the remaining 46 games, at least two a week will be linear, which leaves 20 games a season on ESPN+ The bigger component is Fox picking up basketball games, that's new. Only the Big Ten had a separate MBB agreement prior. 3 - This is the cleverness in the deal, they have the overlap for 2 years on the current agreement, then 6 years, which is basically extending the agreement with 12. But, the way the bylaws read, the penalty for leaving the conference is 2 years of revenues. That overlap allows the Big 12 to have all the 8 paid exactly as they'd budgeted, then pay all the new schools a half share, based off the revenues that would have gone to Texas and Oklahoma. Buyout is clean, new teams make 2x more than they currently do for 2 years, then 4x more after. Current teams stay on the same plan, and Texas and OU don't need to write any checks. I hadn't considered this, but it is likely going to be a bigger story once the rubber hits the road. I saw one article that said the Big 12 skipping USF would create a $150m gap between the two schools over six years. But, the Big 12 is going to be paid more than the ACC for the next six years and will return to market 5 years prior to the ACC's contract ending. Not only will that allow UCF to invest over a decade to catch up, but could start to create some cracks in the foundation.. No. Fox wants one last Red River. I guarantee you over the next two years whatever weekly pick Fox has will be Texas or Oklahoma vs literally anyone on Big Fox.
  19. Revenue can get goofy in a single year, since a massive donation can look like a school makes a ton. For instance, in 2020, Oregon had $300m in contributions, but they don't normally make $400m a year. Most schools, however, try and spend whatever they bring in, so let's look at expenses as a demarcation (bold = within $2m of moving to the next bracket): $200m club - 1 Big Ten = 1 (Ohio State) $150+ club - 8 SEC = 3 (Alabama, Aggy, LSU) Big 12 = 2 (Texas, Oklahoma) Big Ten = 2 (Michigan, Penn State) ACC = 1 (Florida State) $120+ club - 18 Big Ten = 7 (Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Illinois, Nebraska, and Indiana) SEC = 6 (Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina, Arkansas) Pac 12 = 3 (Washington, USC, Oregon) ACC = 2 (Louisville, Clemson) $90m+ club - 28 ACC = 8 (UNC, UVA, VTech, GTech, Miami, Cuse, Pitt, Wake Big 12 = 6 (TCU, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, West Virginia) Pac 12 = 6 (UCLA, ASU, Cal, Arizona, Utah, Colorado) Big Ten = 4 (Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland) SEC = 4 (Missouri, Mississippi, MSU, Vandy) $70+ club - 7 (was going to do $60m, but GTech was the lowest at $71m) ACC = 3 (NCSt, BC, GTech) Big 12 = 2 (Tech, KState) Pac = 2 (Oregon State, Washington State) Most at the top don't even spend the money they have. Its very clear that Texas didn't move to the SEC for money. Consistent profits of over $20m year-over-year; you can only build so many locker rooms. The move occurred to regain the narrative in recruiting blue chips as the SEC made major inroads into Texas after Aggy moved. Oklahoma made the move to not get left behind, but the money will help. USC made the move because they were stranded, lacking exposure, AND making less than the other powers. If Texas, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA ended up in the same conference, it likely would have made closer to B1G/SEC, maybe 10-15% less. Wouldn't have helped the recruiting angle though.
  20. Its far more than some, the non-blue bloods make about 50% of their revenue from the conference. Texas, on the other hand, makes about 20% of its revenue from the conference. Since you used Iowa State, let's use them, also because they're near the bottom of the Big 12, only KState is lower, and have an easy comparison with Iowa. In 2013, they had $62m in revenue, none of which from school funds. Right before the pandemic (which messed up the last few years for everyone) they had $95m in revenue, still not using school funds. That's a 53% increase in total revenue. Factoring out a boost to ticket sales and contributions from increased success/exposure, media rights increased their revenue about 37% in that time. In 2013, Iowa had $107m in revenue, also no school funds. This is not too surprising, Iowa has been in the football conversation since Fry, where Iowa State is just now becoming consistent. Where Iowa is today is Iowa State's top end - not where big brands are. Prepandemic they were at $151m, or a 41% increase in revenue. Ticket sales and contributions have remained relatively even over the years so this is primarily a media revenue boost. In 2013, the year prior to joining the Big Ten, Rutgers had $78m in revenue, $37m came from school funds, so they brought in $41m from outside sources. Fast forward to life in the Big Ten Lane and Rutgers has revenue of $103m, with only $16m in school funds - $87m in outside funds. That's a 112% increase in revenues for joining the Big Ten basically all from media rights increases. The Generals need their Globetrotters to increase funds and exposure and excitement. The Globetrotters need the Generals to do just well enough pad a resume, but not so good they threaten the status quo. There's a value to that symbiotic relationship. As you can see with TCU right now, who has a pretty solid month of defeating ranked foes but is still outside the championship conversation, the brand helps get you talked about, you'll get the benefit of the doubt, but 3 losses will doom you. You simply can't lose too much in conference and stay in the race. Ohio State needs Rutgers as much as Rutgers needs Ohio State. Though it does become parasitic if the "generals" are not investing that money and exposure into their programs. That's sort of where USC found itself - on an island.
  21. Most. Same with the SEC. Each has the Globetrotters and a lot of Generals. There is literally no difference.
  22. That ACC/Pac draw is brutal, good thing they have that ND deal.
  23. My bad, thought you mentioned filling the 8 But I don't see five happening that often either. Its likely 4 a week. You have 96 games and 48 of them will be on the SEC Network, that leaves half the games for broadcast tiering. Even the Big Ten's new blockbuster deal only has 4 games a week off BTN; 1 CBS, 1 Fox, 1 NBC, 1 FS1, 4 BTN
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