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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. This is how it basically works for everyone but the B12 right now.
  2. There is no scenario where all games are played on the main channels. SECN requires about 48-50 games a year, out of a max of 96. I'd guess you'll see two a day on ABC at 3:30/Prime and two on ESPN at Noon/3:30, everything else will be on SECN. Then you'll fill in the Noon ABC, Prime ESPN, and ESPN2/U with Big12/ACC.
  3. Yeah I agree with you here. Its not awesome financially for the Pac/B12 to lose their biggest brands. But those biggest brands take the best opportunities too. Someone of the remaining 18 (not including the new comers yet) is going to start developing. What both leagues need now is exposure, badly. The SEC didn't always dominate the airwaves, CBS has been marketing that 3:30 slot for 20 years, then they started winning titles, and then they dominate financially. It doesn't go the other way. If the Pac/B12 get 20 T1 spots now WITH Texas/OU/USC, getting ten more of their teams into those games is a benefit. Perhaps not financially, but this is the MACtion/Boise way of building up your brand. They may start at 2m, but if over 7 years they're averaging 3m, they'll get a financial bump and a partner who sees there is potential there to keep marketing. That's what this group of non Big Two need to do and its going to take a decade to do it. You just need schools willing to invest and a structure focused on marketing. The PACN is hot garbage, but could be repurposed. The two downfalls right now is it needs to be fed with 10-12 teams. That means less stuff you're selling. There is no scenario where the Pac/B12 make SEC/B1G money, but if you could grab merge 6-8 Pac teams with the Big 12 and repurpose the PACN into a national linear, you could make up some distance and it could grow in time with interest. I actually think a 16/18/20 conference of the mix has a lot of benefits, including a shit ton of content, and enough schools to elevate 6-7 into the T25 yearly. There's a lot you could do with that mostly blank canvas and chances you can take, that you can't when you're maximizing revenue.
  4. Not sure that's the best example. TCU/OkSt drew the same number as Stanford/ND in prime, but did it running opposite of the juggernaut that was Alabama/Tennessee. A massive scoring game, of two top 5s, that went down to the wire, with Alabama losing, with all of CBS/ESPN's marketing behind it - it had all the eyeballs at 11m, the highest rated game of the season so far. I'm actually surprised any other 3:30 game even rated. The non USC/ND brand Pac game of the day was, well none. There was nothing else rated. Even the USC game was only 2.65m viewers in prime time, on Fox, with very little viewing competition. The week prior you had Tech/OkSt draw the same as WSU/USC, but the Pac game was on Fox and the Big 12 was on FS1. Hard to classify that as a win for the Pac when FS1/ESPN2/ESPNU is where games go to die. Two things that throw off the numbers heavily is that the Big 12 has no linear system and OU/Texas dominate the T1 games, much like USC does. So most of the other schools don't have a lot of T1 games to compare that don't include OU/Texas and every game they play, no matter how bad, goes on some backwaters cable to be rated. They don't get to hide their fodder like everyone else. The Big 12's top end is not as high as the B1G/SEC, not by any means. Once they can get more teams marketed in T1, they'll probably top out at 3-4m, where the big two will hit 5-7. That's why they won't get the same contract. But top to bottom they're pretty consistently watched; most fluctuation occurs due to channel and lack of marketing. A good guideline is when you have to find a game, no one is watching it.
  5. I think the Pac is moments away from being dead man walking. If the Big 12 finalizes a deal a year and a half early, right after the Pac didn’t get any takers in their exclusive window (and why would they when FOX already took the properties it wanted), it is a clear sign who the broadcast partners favor. That alone, regardless of money, could be the cover they need. There are clear signs from Sankey/Keenum that the CFB playoff will be more equitable in how they share than less. What won’t be equitable is how many teams you get in. More teams in the conference allows for more teams to have less losses, which means you have a higher chance of getting in multiple properties, which is a major boon to exposure. That alone should give the Pac some pause. Ten didn’t help the B12. Sixteen is a better place to be when you want to put 3 in per year. Lastly, if you listen to Yormark any, he doesn’t put a sentence together that doesn’t include a treatise on marketing and branding. This leads me to believe he’s trying to hit a number, but he’s also trying to secure exposure. The Pac 12 and Big 12 have done a terrible job at this to date. Some indication that broadcast networks are going to promote them like they did the SEC/B1G would be a last straw kind of thing. As for who? Outside Yormark pitching 4 time zones, I don’t think it really matters to be honest. It just takes one. Arizona is already the Colorado of this round, they don’t seem to be drinking the Kool-Aid. If they go, I’d expect Colorado to go within moments, its their nature. Most of their alumni are in SoCal, not Portland, the dream has died. Once that happens, it’s a good old fashioned skirt lifting contest. I don't think there is any scenario though where Oregon and Washington sit it out with the MWC 2.0. Waiting 7 years to join the B1G in that set up would destroy their brands.
  6. Its possible, because they're not talking only broadcast. The Big Ten's number is $75m for broadcast, they're talking $60m for all in. With bowl games and the elevated playoffs, you can get there. Imagine the playoff pays the top 4 conferences around $25m per school, if they get $35m in broadcast, they're at $60m. What isn't being said is the SEC/B1G is getting $100m
  7. Big 12 may secure new media rights deal with current partners in matter of weeks
  8. The one way they were talking about funding it is by making a deal with ESPN for the After Dark slot. Though I don't think, even with its value as better than nothing, that it would bring enough, and it would force all the west coast schools on it. Anything added at this point takes away from someone already in the Big Ten. That Oregon game on NBC? Suck it Iowa, you're on FS1. Afternoon for Washington? Thanks for nothing Minnesota! It may be marketing more than money than makes it daunting.
  9. and the expanded playoffs start.
  10. Yeah, CBS will still be airing the SEC at 3:30 in 2023:
  11. Only allowed 24 in two games, but only scored 20
  12. In short that means that Amazon would have to pay around $300m a year for probably 30 games that would all be the 4th - 5th picks each week. Its over valued, but they paid $1B for 17 TNF games. To match the investment those 30 games would need to pull in an audience of about 1.5-2M per game. That may be a bit high, but with all the brands they have under Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State/USC, it's doable. The Big Ten may need to go to ten conference games to pull it off too. Its easy to see the 4 corners going to the Big 12 after, and maybe ND joining the ACC for good in a decade too. That would put one at 20 and three at 16. I just don't see how this spooks the SEC enough to expand more. It does, however, consolidate management power considerably. I'd also expect the "alliance" tables to turn, with ESPN and the SEC finding ways to entangle with and strengthen the ACC/B12 more.
  13. NextGen Stats tracked Raheem Mostert at over 23 mph on an 80 yard td scamper in 2020. That's faster than Hill.
  14. Yeah I don't think they should, was more the regents could just choose to spread the money around to ease the parting blow. "We can't keep you from leaving, but we can move $20m of your funding from here to here." This entire Pac ordeal is nuts. Within a decade they went from the P5 conference with all the good things, to pissing it down their leg and being in the worst spot.
  15. I found it interesting that it was a three-page letter of why UCLA's decision was bad, not a three-page letter of why UCLA should stay. Like what is the Pac providing that's better. Less plane flights seems disingenuous considering the only school UCLA busses too currently is USC. So here's our options: Nothing changes UCLA still leaves, but Cal gets another $25m a year B1G invites Cal and no one gives any shits about travel They force UCLA to stay, on the condition the Pac only backfills USC with Cal system schools, and San Diego State gets invited
  16. And after how much they lifted their skirt to everyone a decade ago, they've really, really let themselves go since getting a ring on their finger
  17. Streaming updates: ‘TNF’ Draws Record Prime Subscriptions for Amazon Amazon has exclusive rights to "Thursday Night Football" as part of an 11-year deal worth $1 billion annually. Its first "Thursday Night Football" broadcast drew a record prime-time audience for the streaming service in the U.S.. Conference realignment: Amazon interest may affect Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 composition as talks continue
  18. CFB 2022 Weeks 0-3 Channel Games Avg Audience ABC 10 4,336,300 FOX 9 3,814,444 NBC 2 2,695,000 ESPN 14 2,280,429 CBS 3 1,926,333 ESPN2 11 974,091 BTN 11 626,273 FS1 16 485,625 ESPNU 8 263,000 NFLN 2 184,500 Look at the dumpster fire that is FS1 and ESPNU, they're not even beating BTN. Also, ESPN is outperforming CBS, for now. CFB 2022 Weeks 0-3 Slot Games Avg Audience Prime 27 2,155,074 Noon 20 1,912,750 Afternoon 28 1,555,000 Late 11 786,636 This looks like it always looks, except Afternoon will catch up CFB 2022 Weeks 1-3 Home Conference Games Avg Audience SEC 13 2,971,308 Independent 3 2,586,667 ACC 6 2,284,500 Big 12 7 2,083,714 Big Ten 29 1,708,310 Pac 12 9 1,492,222 AAC 3 1,368,333 MWC 7 470,286 SunBelt 2 427,000 MAC 3 183,000 BTN being rated is adding to the amount of games the Big Ten has counted, but they seem to have more home games on TV at this point too. Also, the Pac 12 seems closer to the AAC than the Big 12/ACC. FAR too early to draw much from this as the conference season has barely been tapped. Only big change this week is Penn State/Auburn knocked Washington State/Wisconsin out of 3rd place over all for the afternoon slot with their 4m game. Other of note: Oklahoma/Nebraska only drew 3.4m. Considering their game against Northwestern drew 4.4m it just goes to show how much people tune out of blow outs. I haven't seen the quarterly splits on it, but I'm guessing had this game been close it would have been 6m In prime-time Miami/A&M drew 3.4m on ESPN, while Toledo/Ohio State drew 3m on Fox. Cal/ND only drew 2.9m. ND losing is bad for NBC's business. Biggest Pac game was Michigan State/Washington, which only drew a 2.8m on ABC at prime.
  19. Here's the full article: 'Nobody's going anywhere': George Kliavkoff rebuffs idea of Arizona, ASU, 2 others leaving for Big 12
  20. There will be a lot more stories like this than less.
  21. Nebraska lost to Northwestern and Georgia Southern. Both of whom lost this weekend to Southern Illinois and UAB respectively. That's how shockingly terrible they are.
  22. Two minutes in heaven is better than one minute in heaven.
  23. awesome, my oldest goes to UVA now - continuing to segue the shit out of this thread
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