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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. I know a lot of service guys who got their degrees from OU overseas, never stepped foot on campus
  2. He'd fit in great here
  3. B1G is also talking about the possibility of going back to ESPN with "After Dark" games only. However, I cannot imagine Oregon, Washington, and USC want to be playing all of their games after the east coast has gone to bed. I also cannot imagine that you'd be able to fund them with those games alone. That slot is important because 2.4m at 10pm eastern is just not achievable in any other way. But you're not going to net 5m eyeballs there. So, while you pay a bit of a premium, its like paying 4m rates for 2.5m. If you're a big brand its terrible because you miss nearly everyone and aren't adding exposure. If you're an up and coming brand it is great, like MACtion, because you're isolated and on with little competition. Either the Big 12 or Pac is going to have to do this for the next contract. There will be a T1 game on Saturday, but have to be a Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night. Its not the best, but being on iso is way better than those games on FS1 on Saturday. I'd take the worst times on the best channels over the best times on the worst channels.
  4. Agree that he was never going to be the guy to ween them off the option, the dude was the hand-picked successor from Osborn, who was basically Corn Saban for 20 years. Solich had one bad season, which was 7 wins. He won 9 games the next year and they canned him before the bowl. Then he went on to get the field named after him at Ohio University. While Nebraska did this: Solich - 75.3% Callahan - 55.1% Pelini - 71.3% Riley - 50% Frost - 34%
  5. guessing they went "We're leaving!" then looked at all the work it would take to recreate the NCAA and said, "we're changing you!"
  6. Couple thoughts on the above: the afternoon slot will improve once the SEC gets into CBS season. CBS has had some duds so far that pulled less than 1m, that will change ESPN isn't there yet, but is nearly being classified as a T1 channel. It is sort of like 1.5 If you're on a big channel, its great. If you're on ESPN you're good. Anything else is kind of a turd burger This is the first year I've seen all of the games on BTN rated. Last year it was just a few. What this means is the channel has grown so much that its viewed as other sports channels. Neither the SECN or ACCN have anything rated. Take away is the BTN figures are likely showing us the top end of T3 right now, as they're out drawing FS1/ESPNU. Here's the top BTN games: ISU/Iowa - 1.5m Arkansas State/Ohio State - 1.5m (like 20k behind) Hawaii/Michigan - 1m Noon games have always been premium, always. That's why the Big Ten sat there with ESPN every week. The bitch about that game is people hate being at the stadium that early. Not the case with watching, people turn out.
  7. Here's some breakdowns to help @joeycovers out a bit so he doesn't have to do it alone: Top 3 games by Slot (through week 2): Noon - Bama/Texas - FOX - 10.6m Nebraska/Northwestern - FOX- 4.4m CSU/Michigan - ABC - 3.9m Afternoon - Oregon/Georgia - ABC- 6.2m Tennessee/Pitt - ABC - 4.5m Washington State/Wisconsin - FOX- 3.9m Prime - Notre Dame/Ohio State - ABC - 10.5m FSU/LSU - ABC - 7.6m Kentucky/Florida - ESPN - 4.3m Late - Baylor/BYU - ESPN - 2.4m Boise State/Oregon State - ESPN - 1.3m TCU/Colorado - ESPN - 1.3m
  8. Not even blue bloods: here's the winning percent of the big schools around Nebraska over the past 5 years: 89.2% - Ohio State (who they think they are) 85.3% - Oklahoma (just for the old rivalry comparison) 71.4% - Wisconsin 71.2% - Oklahoma State 69.8% - Iowa 64.6% - Kentucky 63.9% - Michigan State 62.1% - Iowa State 61.7% - Minnesota 55.6% - Kansas State 53.2% - Northwestern 52.4% - Missouri 49.2% - Purdue 47.5% - Indiana 41.1% - Colorado 33.9% - Nebraska
  9. At this point, they're a courtesy 2
  10. Campbell went 7-6 last year with a handful of NFL dudes, its likely not splashy enough. He seems more like a Beamer/Purple Wizard kind of guy. To take this job you need to love the limelight and pressure to put in instant success, or you'll be out. Next guy isn't getting the rope Frost got, he's got 2 years tops. I'd put my money on someone on Saban's staff, but Nebraska needs someone hitting the road and recruiting now. Their 2022 class ranks 41st. This is the biggest problem with this hire. Every one of the historic blue bloods has one thing that Nebraska lacks - a home grown recruiting advantage. The only one close is ND and their talons are so deep into Chicago that you can't fall out of a bar there without tripping over a passed out Irish fan. You need a developmental guy, like Ferentz, Campbell, Fitzgerald or basically any of the non-blue blood coaches having success in the Midwest. However, the school isn't ok with developmental. That's like living the 7-8 win life waiting for the one moment you hit glory with 10 wins. Nebraska needs and expects ten wins now...and next year, and every year. But that ship has sank. They need to go the Aggy route and start buying recruiting classes, ASAP. Fuck coaching salary, keep the asst coach on who was also an exHusker, dangle NIL to a huge degree, and buy the fucker talent. They want to be Ohio State, but they'd be lucky to Wisconsin or Iowa now.
  11. This is a hilarious troll job on Brian Ferentz, they even got his dad to do one too. "Time to leave the family business" Kind of surprised no one thought of it before. 😆
  12. Not enough content. LHN is a brand build, its not how you'd want to build a conference network. Go look at the SECN or BTN, they are full of football games all day, sometimes on overflow channels. All the Big 12 has had to offer is 1 football game each and about 3-5 basketball games, give or take. And all of those games are the worst of the worst of the worst, basically over only 4 total weeks out of the year the way they schedule. Great for exposure, terrible for per game value in a contract. Stripping out basketball for now, this is how many football games they can sell with 8 and 9 conference games per year: 10 = 40/45 12 = 48/54 14 = 56/63 16 = 64/72 18 = 72/81 With 10 the Big 12 sells 1 T1 game a week (roughly) and each team gets 1 T3 game, which both add up to about 22 games, that leaves 23 games for T2, or about 2 a week on FS1/ESPN/ESPN2. After that they are out of inventory. Their T1 games, today, are who plays Texas and Oklahoma. So, they've done ok because they're the only conference with basically all of their games are on T1/T2, which is great for exposure, but is not always the most valued games. You want to bury the shit on your own channel, that you pay for with people who don't watch it, and only feature the best match ups in the games you get paid for people watching. That's how you get bigger contracts. At 14 teams playing 9 conference games, like the Big Ten, you can play 3 games on your own channel (Noon, afternoon, Prime) and still have 27 games to sell. 27 better games is worth more than 36 shitty games. If you look at the averages of the Big Ten/SEC/ACC nearly every team has a better broadcast audience average, but when you look at how many games they play its like 1 or 2 to the Big 12's 4-5. In short, feature your best games, bury the rest, cash big checks. At 16 you can play 3 games a day on a conference network and have 36 to sell. The one advantage the Big 12 has right now is they lost brands, but they gained massive amounts DMA households. Those don't matter for the big games, but they're how you fund the bad ones. If they structured a channel that charged half as much as BTN charges, it could be worth between $350-$400m per year. 16 teams: $500m for T1/T2 + $400m for T3 = $900m/16 = $56m per team per year. That's 20% less than the Big Ten and SEC, because they lack big brands, but it's the only way any of those teams stay that close. Assuming Oregon/Washington/Stanford are Big Ten in waiting, you'd want ASU, Colorado, and Cal as your top 3 for a conference network. Maxed out with a media partner who tethers them either to the SEC Network or the Big Ten Network could see them reach $60m/team for regular season broadcast rights and would likely require taking the shell of either LHN or FS2 to put together by 2024-25.
  13. Without LA, I'm still not sure why Colorado and AZ wouldn't want games in Texas. $10m per school doesn't seem far fetched, especially if they are on the positive side of excess inventory. The Pac10 is going to have the same issues the Big 12 had at 10, first and foremost is there isn't anything to put on the Pac 12 Networks any more. Cal, ASU, Colorado, and AZ or Utah could drive growth in all tiers of the media deal above that. They're not hitting SEC/Big Ten levels, but they could be 20-30% behind instead of 50+
  14. that's kind of their thing, copycat
  15. When the zonas joined the Pac 12 in the 70s, it was to tether themselves to SoCal. Same for Colorado in 2010. What is in the Pac for them anymore?
  16. Like how he changed it to 10
  17. I'd still contend Stanford is the Pac12 property the Big Ten has at #1 and it likely hinges on ND. With the position they are in the Big Ten doesn't have to move quickly. The only property on the board anymore that brings SEC/BigTen value is Notre Dame. Literally the only one. And, they're big enough to bring a friend, you're welcome Stanford. The SEC has no one to add that matters any more, outside maybe a couple ACC teams, which aren't game changers and are kind of in your market, won't happen for a decade. And when it does happen, the Big Ten doesn't hesitate to take UVA/UNC. Both would be more highly valued than either UW or Oregon. Per previous conversation on the playoff being worth more going forward than the regular season, this may change if killing the Pac 12 changes the auto in from 6 to 5. That opens up another at large. In that scenario, Oregon could pay for themselves with playoff wins. The unknown, per @camel at sea is how long everyone not named Washington and Oregon can hold out with instability. For Washington State/Oregon State, forever. They're like Iowa State and Kansas, bad geography and history says a major university is going to be stuck without options. But, like we saw in 2010, realignment didn't start with Nebraska, it started with schools unwilling to commit to the Big 12 when Bebee asked. Colorado took the first offer that came along to get ahead of wave. Arizona may be the Colorado of this round. If they weren't feeling secure in the P12 and joined the Big 12, I think you'd see Colorado move immediately as their lifting the skirt to the Big Ten is working as well as it worked for Mizzou. If that happens panic sets in and the Pac 12 levee could break fast.
  18. less than 100 yards passing and ended up on his back a lot if I remember right too. I could look good if my only job was handing off to two NFL backs
  19. Financially, they don't need to fill them with the Georgia's of the world. Just P5s will do. TCU/Colorado is worth far more than Tarleton, Nicholls, or Abeline.
  20. I'm with you, to a certain degree, but using the "share" model the NCAA uses, you get one share for free. Now, could you modify the shares so that the P5 gets 1 share and the G5 share one share or some other fractural design? Yes, but per the earlier point on rabbit holes, you could spend all week tweaking that bullshit. And they will, for the next three years. The point was more, this is how a share program would work. And the key piece of it is you get one share for existing (Automatic qualifiers in the NCAA tournament) and another share PER WIN. You don't get a participation share if you don't win. So here's another way to do it: 6 Equal shares a year = Paid to the top six conference champs. The "Auto" in the NCAA tourney analogy, as opposed to just getting one to be a conference in the FBS. I used 10 before, so this funnels more to the P5. This increases the per share from $17m to $26m (or a 52% increase) 1 share per win, not including champ game. A 12 team format provides 8 win shares per year. Using the same numbers from above AND assuming a P5 champ makes it in every year AND ignoring fucking ND for a moment because they're kind of a statistical anomaly: SEC = 3.5 average shares per year for a yearly take home once vested of $546m Big Ten = 3 avg, vested yearly at $468m ACC/B12 = 2.25, $351m Pac = $273m So out of $2.2m you get: SEC = 25% of all revenue Big Ten = 21% of all revenue ACC/B12 = 16% of all revenue (each) Pac12 = 12% of all revenue The field = 10% of all revenue. With meager assumptions they make more than an 80/20 split, the P5 makes 90%. And, those assumptions are kind of conservative. If the SEC averages 4 wins a year for 6 years, even if they never won a championship again, they'd make a whopping $780m/year or 35.5% of all of the revenue. (which is about the same amount the entire NCAA tourney brings in a year) The reason why this would allow them to consolidate money is because you are allowing everyone to earn it. And while the Big Ten and SEC gobble up 45-50% of the proceeds for themselves, there will be enough stories of Boise or App State or Navy getting their fluke win every contract, for a $156m total windfall for their conference. (Over six years. Meanwhile the SEC/Big Ten would have netted $5.9 billion combined over that same time frame.)
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