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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Yeah I don't disagree, but the rabbit hole of how to do it was so vast that I just picked the one they already have in place as an example. And one reason why they want to keep status quo is they've maxed their regular season revenue. The moment they realize they've done that and positioned themselves to get the lion's share of the post season, paying more to add Oregon and FSU doesn't make a lot of sense. Even providing the Pac or ACC a win in the post season wouldn't offset the amount of money the SEC would lose in bringing them in. At some point, your numbers stop indicating you're a conference and start indicating you're a league. I don't think any of the lawyers at the Big 12 or SEC want to be considered a league and lose all the protection being a conference provides them.
  2. Mediawise, they're not "dinged", its just part of the valuation. The OOC is so neglectable you could kind of just assume only 45 of the 60 odd home games in a year are paid for. The only way to fix that is give the networks guaranteed games for all members.
  3. If they paid out the same as the NCAA tournament, it would look something like this: Equal Conference Fund = 10 shares a year (one per each conference in FBS) for 60 total Performance Fund = 8 shares a year (for each win leading to the champ game) for 48 total Total Shares = 128 Per Share Value = $2.2b/128 = ~$17m per share Each share is paid out over 6 years, so the MWC just made $17m a year for 6 years, in year one, by year six they're earning $102m So, if you assumed this yearly performance average out: SEC = 2.5 Big Ten = 2 ACC/B12 = 1.25 Pac12 = .75 Field = .25 That would net the following revenue in Year Six (if you keep the per share the same for simplicity): SEC = $357m Big Ten = $306m ACC/B12 = $230m Pac12 = $179m Field = $127m
  4. In other news... Expanded CFP Media Rights Could Double Current Deal CFP could fetch $2.2 billion in annual media rights fees. - Topping the entire Big Ten contract....with 11 games. Look for a Fox vs. ESPN bidding war for CFP TV rights. - If you see them dragging their feet until 2026, this is why they're doing it. They'll make more segmenting and farming out the games NFL style, to multiple networks, than the Mouse can afford on its own. What they're not talking about - splitting the pie - How do you split $2b annually? Currently the P5 split about 70% between them, evenly. The Big 12 earned more than the ACC/Pac12 because of this. The Big Ten/SEC will want bigger shares, but it may be difficult to sell to 11 presidents on the council, who forced expansion on the commissioners to provide more access, especially when you go back and see how teams from across the spectrum would have been represented if they started with 12. It would shock me if they kept the current system of splitting regardless. It would not shock me if they implemented a version of "shares" like they use for the NCAA tournament, where each win pays out more over time - How it is paid out will directly contribute to whether we see more realignment or less. Remember, the same amount of money split for 11 games than the Big Ten sold with 72 - e.g. this is 7x more valuable than the regular season. Even more valuable if you consider that you're only jockying for 6 at large spots. If they pay out evenly, expansion is over, why share with 16 what you can share with 12. This would be a boon for the Pac 12. If they pay out per share, look for the next round to begin as the Pac/B12 and maybe ACC position themselves to get as many in the final six as they can year in and year out. My guess is the ACC/B12 could keep 2 of those at large births with the SEC/BigTen getting 3.5, with the Pac earning that rare second.
  5. Two things here: 1) Statsman is right in that you only get paid for your home games. So if you play a home and home against anyone, that second year is on their contract. A prime example is Iowa/Iowa State or Pitt/WVU, some of the few rivalries between conferences that actually rate consistently well. Each conference only has it every other year, so the value is spaced out. It would actually be worth more like Bedlum, where the network could value it yearly. 2) Credit: If you mean credit for scheduling stronger opponents for a bump in the post season, done. That's how it works. However, unless the networks can have guaranteed games, they're not worth anything. Providing the networks with less risk increases what its worth. That's why conference games are worth more. It isn't that Texas is worth more than Kansas. Its that both are worth more than our worst fear, that you schedule St Mary's Home for the Blind, and we get it every year. The only way to increase the OOC value of a contract is to guarantee games to a network. Per above, if the Big 12 went all in with ESPN, played 10 conference games and had a H/H with the ACC on ESPN, that ESPN could help facilitate, their value would jump 30% over going to market with 9 conference games and 3 OOC>
  6. Sort of jumping onto 5 posts on this so not total from or directed at Bill, but as more money is desired, scheduling will change. Currently most conferences schedule for home games, because home games paid the bills. And, for some schools, home games still do. Ohio State is around $70m in ticket sales, for instance, rivaling its new network deal. For most teams though, these new media deals are paying the bills. For instance, UCLA averaged $18-20m in ticket sales prior to the pandemic. They're going to get $70m in media moving to the Big Ten. That is going to change how these entire media deals are structured. First and foremost, unless it is a made for TV sporting event, like Oregon/Georgia to kick off the season at a "neutral" site, out of conference games have basically zero worth to a conference's media rights deal. That's why they're called Tier Three. It is fodder. The networks can't value them because they never really know who you're playing a decade out, it can change, they can't count on it and usually, if it is a good team, its a home and away, so they only get half the value. The Big Ten leads over the SEC, not because of bigger product or markets or brand, but because they put more "quality" inventory on the market. For football alone, at 16 teams, the Big Ten is offering 72 football games to all of its partners, to the SEC's 64. Doesn't feel like much but that 12.5% difference adds up, to the tune of about $200m. It is only a matter of time until the SEC moves to 9 conference games as well to bridge this gap because they no longer need home games nor FCS freebees due to the expansion of the playoffs. The Big 12, in expanding to 12, could move to 8 conference games, but I doubt they can afford it. The Big 12 with UT/OU was going to make about $60mish before the move, at 9, compared to the SEC making more....at 8. Lose the big brands, you need to sell more, not less. I'm going to speculate that the next big media change will come from the ACC/Pac/B12 in trying to catch up a little. They'll either move to 10 conference games to guarantee 6 at home (H/A the two remaining) or sell them all via a scheduling agreement with the ACC/Pac. As long as the networks know what they're getting (e.g. a P5 team), each league could boost their sales to 12 while maintaining 6 home games (8 conference games, plus 2 HnH). That would provide those leagues with a 33% value increase to the current deal. So now if you're making $45m, you'll make $60. You're in the game again, you just have to give up your cupcakes. TLDR: OOC ain't worth shit. And it's the next big change coming.
  7. When the fuck did that happen?!
  8. This is a good point, it won't be Oregon State and WSU moving to the MWC, the MWC will join those two and keep the Pac name. Even with all new schools the brand is more easily recognized. Just like the marketing story of the Ford 500 being rebranded the Taurus. Why spend money to build up a new name when you already have one everyone knows.
  9. Exactly, it's not the city proper, it's the metro area. It is basically where the local news broadcasts, which is why Washington/Baltimore are now separated when they used to be combined.
  10. One of the marketing rumors I heard is the possibility of ESPN moving Texas/OU early to the SECN and getting the rights from the Big 12 by repurposing LHN, which already has some market penetration, into a Big 12 Network, which they'd tether to the SEC/ACC networks. The irony there is extreme. There is another possibility with FS2 serving a similar purpose. The irony grows even more if the end result is Fox/ESPN both bidding against each other for their shoulder/T3 all because they're last to the table. It could be one of those "fall in shit and end up smelling like roses" stories and is likely why the Pac12 media is like "WTF?!"
  11. Yeah the unit of measure you want for these broadcast conversations is DMA, or designated market areas. They measure broadcast households in each market. E.g. how many TVs, not really how many people. Here's the top 100:
  12. I can actually see the Big Ten taking Colorado over Oregon, maybe even Utah. Both are major AAU research institutions in large, growing markets, that help connect the dots between Nebraska and California. That would be 20 with ND, Stanford, Washington, Colorado. Which gives them Seattle (#14), NoCal (6), and Denver (17) for BTN. That makes much more Big Ten sense to me than Oregon (25). SLC and Portland are basically the same size.
  13. That's why there are two things to look at, audience and DMA. Remember when markets were important for the Big Ten? Well the Big 12 sits in a spot where it can finally do something with excess inventory. In those conversations, just like the BTN or SECN, it isn't about how many people watch it it is about how many people you reach in the DMAs you reside. So even if Texas "pulls" DFW or Oregon does with Portland, they reside within the Austin and Eugene DMAs. That's their home market for higher pricing. And that will matter because for the BTN they make about $1.50 - $1.75 per home DMA and about $0.25 - $0.50 out. USC/UCLA, in LA, is now worth $120m to the BTN in affiliate fees alone. Oregon would be worth $5.5m with their DMA. Could they get a boost to the Portland DMA? Likely, but nothing like residing within it. THIS is why Rutgers was added. The Big Ten doesn't care if no one watches in NYC, they get to charge you for it. Pulling markets works for your T1 and T2 rights. Its why you want Texas on your package, people tune in outside of Austin to watch it. But you don't waste those games on LHN, you put them on ABC. So that's where Oregon helps with a brand standpoint, but not from a linear channel stand point, same as Utah.
  14. Yeah I've tried to run numbers on this and you kind of break up value in two areas for the Big 12; who gets you over the air eyeballs and who gets you a great DMA for your own network. I think I'd go in this order Washington is the top dog. It has a brand bigger than anything in the Big 12 currently and resides in a DMA with 2m households. They, like Stanford, check all the boxes for the Big Ten. Oregon is a big national brand, as someone mentioned prior, a marketing construct that resides in a DMA of only 250k homes. The only markets smaller in the combined Pac/B12 is KState and Tech. If Oregon wasn't backed by Knight and didn't have 30 good years, I'm not really sure they'd resonate. What happens once Knight isn't backing them? I'd not be surprised if they're left without a Big Ten ticket. UCLA is a basketball blue blood and needed the massive LA market to make the numbers work. Stanford/Cal both are in a DMA of 2.6m, which would be second biggest in a combo behind DFW. Cali also has 40m residents, so having a flag there is good. Do you need both? Colorado is a no brainer. It touches Kansas, has 1.7m homes, and has a history. Also, their biggest alumni base outside Colorado was LA, which is gone. Arizona/ASU - This is big one - do you need both. ASU resides within the Phoenix DMA, which is 2.15m households and, as you mention, is a massive school. Arizona has the flagship brand and natties in basketball, but that's about it. Also, Tuscon is not a major metro, its basically the same size as Iowa State's DMA. Arizona does seem to be the one leading this charge to leave though so I'd guess you take both, but you only need ASU. Utah - You already have the SLC DMA, and their 1.1m households, since you added BYU, so its a wash. Having the rivalry game brings a lot of value, but can you afford to double dip? Washington State. The Spokane DMA is the same size as Arizona or Iowa State, so ok, but not awesome. Basically 450-500k. Unlike the other two, though, there is nothing near there. If you draw a 300 mile circle around Ames you reach 38m people. If you draw the same around Pullman and you reach 13m Lots of trees. Oregon State sits in the same little DMA as Oregon, but without the marketing. Agree, no pity.
  15. With the Pac, they could have moved with Texas, Tech, OU, OkSt, and Kansas to get to 16, prior to Utah. LHN isn't as huge of a deal when you have 16 teams. In the Pac model you could have had a regional with those 5 teams and had Dallas/KC in the mix and I'm guessing with Cali and Texas you'd get a DirecTV deal. You'd still have all the prime Texas rights, which would bolster your TV contracts and you wouldn't have to pay them for T3. Someone just couldn't sell to the brass that you'd make more over all splitting the big money 16 ways and the small money 15. Pretty sure LHN came out of that mess though too, there was a moment where the Pac was talking before the network deal was in place, I just can't remember how big of a window that was. As for the Big 12, they didn't really get much of a raise. They had been selling 48 games with 8 conference games. Moving to 9 let them sell 45. You can make that up with inflation.
  16. I agree, its just a lot to work out in one year, when most of it goes away waiting a year. I'm also not convinced Fox wants 6 Pac members. They could have done that already. @Trojan Man could chime in on this better than me, but they're the power player with Fox. My guess is they're putting all their efforts into Notre Dame, not Oregon. And while I'm sure they'd be willing to let Notre Dame bring a friend from the West Coast, I'd be shocked if they wanted to reinvent the wheel.
  17. The Big Ten's deal starts in 2023. Best ESPN could do is match them. To make 2023 work, ESPN needs to buy out CBS's deal with the SEC. To get Texas and OU to ESPN before 2025, ESPN either needs to pay out Fox AND the Big 12 for those rights, or they need to make 6-8 made for TV OOC games between Texas/OU and Big 12 members (like Bedlam) over two years (or promised into the future) that Fox gets.
  18. Twice they could have killed the Big 12 and chose not to.
  19. Yeah its not a long list. The biggest issue with the Big 12 is they never worked as a cohesive unit where all institutions were in lock step strengthening the conference.
  20. Yeah he's terrible with money. They had a long deal and the average was like $25m, not taking into consideration some of the years were like $15m. Also their T1 deal was severely undervalued, which you're seeing a bit of now with the Big Ten. So, while the Big 12 didn't have enough teams to sell tons of them, they were getting $4m for the Red River, when the Big Ten just sold Wisconsin/Michigan for $22m. Even without Texas/OU, the Big 12 should be able to increase their T1 deal significantly. And, with more inventory, they can sell more. They're not able to do what the Big Ten/SEC can do with 4-6 big brands each, but their curve is still going up from $45 because they were undervalued at that number. I'd guess the next deal starts at $40-45m, but it would have started at $60-65m without any movement.
  21. This has always seemed the most likely to me. The T1 games are on CBS prior, unless ESPN buys those out early, so why push a GoR if where you're going doesn't need you until a year prior?
  22. The Big 12 was aiming more towards $65-70m before realignment, I'd expect they end up around $45-50m now. They lost massive brands, but they exploded in markets. To your point, the Big 12's entire vision now has to be how to we grow our brands. Having better ball in these markets will help the next round of negotiations around 2031. Adding 4 from the Pac could increase it as well due to having more inventory to create a network in bigger cities. DMAs matter a lot more in affiliate fees. Just need to do it right. While Oregon/UW are the biggest brands left, likely makes more sense for the Big 12 to focus on four corners just for geography. Helps build the conference up. Though you could also get the 4 corners by just getting Colorado and ASU, since you have Utah with BYU, and watching. Connecting the BYU dot isn't going to hurt.
  23. They have good shoulder programing for both ESPN and Fox. If Fox's big game is noon, I could see them on the 3:30. I could also see CBS getting involved to snatch up basketball to go with their Big Ten package, which is normally Sunday games. Toss Big 12 football shoulders at noon, basketball on Saturday. If you look at the ACC and SEC, the bulk of their content is on conference networks. Missouri played one game outside it last year, as did other programs like Pitt, BC, Cuse, etc. Now that the Big 12 has more inventory, one of Fox/ESPN making a linear network to lock up rights where they could pay for it by bundling with SEC or BTN could also work. Then you just pick the best games for shoulders and drop everything else to linear. It's not $100m a year, but it's not $25m. If they expanded with 4 corners and charged half of BTN, Fox would be generating about $350m/year in carriage alone - which is around $15-20m/year per team at 16. (Napkin Math: same original deal as BTN, 50/50 split. Fees are 40% of total revenue, ads bring in 60%, 10-20% expenses = $750m.-$100m in expenses= $650m split, fox takes $325, Big 12 splits $325)
  24. My neighbor is a Cuse fan. He cares about football until about the 3rd loss, then its prepping for basketball season. And while his glad they got a safe landing place in the ACC, they all seem to pine for the glory days of Big East basketball.
  25. Boise to the Big Ten, you heard it here first! You're safe, John Wilner.
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