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Everything posted by Hurtlocker
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The Big 12 has none, yet. The Texas and Oklahoma games are built into their media contract and their main partners, Fox and ESPN, want them. They alternate picking games, so Fox has a vested interest in the status quo. ESPN wants them the moment they get T1 rights to the SEC. Unless one of those media partners makes them an offer they can't refuse, they run out the clock and earn 4 shares of yearly revenue to ease the parting blow. This is where I think the Big 12 has the edge over the Pac 12, if they can use it. Fox wants to consolidate; ESPN wants Texas and Oklahoma against Alabama and Georgia in 2024 to help pay for their investment. ESPN also lost a metric fuckton of content if the Big Ten rumors are true. If Fox doesn't want to pay for Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten, move them and some friends to the Big 12 for more than now but less than B1G/SEC; Fox bids out the T1 games to shoulder the Big Noon, ESPN gets the T2 content to shoulder the SEC games and provide afterdark (perhaps with OOC made for TV match ups between), and the T3 games someone creates a linear channel with surplus of inventory. Harder to do that with the Pac 12 because all the parties move faster, with less damage for leaving, and the real battle is going to amp up after the Big Ten deal is done here soon. If ND moves, it could happen very fast.
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No, they'd still schedule like normal, outside the mix includes 4 other schools. Sovereign immunity doesn't really apply, that's more about being sued. I don't anticipate a lot of changes outside that. Why would they "punish" Texas by playing at Houston? Like Oklahoma State and Iowa State don't want those last few games? It will be random, so no one is pissed off. And they're not going to go crazy on the all road games crap because of student athletes. The only real changes are; Can't vote on conference matters because of leaving Rights are owed until 2025 Two year revenue buyout, which likely means last two years of revenue withheld. (2023, 2024 at this point) Reminder, anything can be negotiated and I'd expect the Big 12 to sweeten its deal with ESPN ahead of the Pac 12, by offering to give ESPN the rights to Texas and OU in 2023 or 2024, depending on if ESPN buys out CBS or not. They don't need the content early, they already have the rights to Texas and OU via the Big 12.
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I think it relates to employees of state agencies, which student athletes are not, yet. Arizona was a part of this as well and didn't seem to affect UCLA or Cal.
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Yeah, the moment the announcement of the move was made all voting rights were negated. It was added after realignment on the basis that you can't say you're leaving and have a vote on how it is run.
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But its $30m in one revenue stream, media rights. It's the largest chunk, but not the only chunk. Texas made $200m in revenue in 2020 and $82m of that was rights/licensing and it pretty much paid for all the salaries and scholarships for the entire AD. Still a lot left over. First, $75m is much, much closer to the Big Ten's deal at $1.2b. When they say $100m, that's in the middle of the contact. A bump from $1.2b to $1.5b would start that contract around $85m. ND's deal would escalate too, they all do on a 4% inflation factor yearly. So $75m today gets them to $85m in the middle of the contract. You're really talking about a 15% difference overall. Second, while it is for all of the media rights for every Big Ten team in every sport, it is only the rights for ND football. ND get's paid $12m currently by the ACC for its Olympic sports and basketball. $75m + $12m = $87m, which will be $98m in the middle of the contract. Now it's only a 2% difference. I also don't see where NBC would pay the Big Ten $24m per game to shoulder their ND "A" game, but pay ND $10m per game. If ND was paid what the Big Ten's deal is rumored to be paid, they'd be making $190M from NBC. The math is funky at this point. Lastly, they get their own share from the playoffs that they don't need to share. It's a sizable chunk of change too. And it's likely key to this to be honest, not money. If ND has access to the post season and is "in the ballpark" financially, why move? Only reasons I can see are: Losing independent access to the playoffs Losing longtime rival scheduling due to increased conference games (The Big Ten moving to 10 conference games would put 80 games to market) Being offered a special deal, and a lot more to stay; E.g Big Ten buys out ACC content, Stanford joins and ND always plays a game yearly in Cali, keeps their Big Ten ones, gets Penn State in Philly/Rutgers in Giants Stadium/Maryland at FedEx, all of their games, home or away, are on NBC at 3:30, and their remaining non-con schedule becomes neutral site games against Army/Navy, etc. I just cannot see them joining the Big Ten AND being no different than Iowa or Purdue.
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I think this is the actual answer and it comes down to Oregon and Washington.
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While money doesn't hurt, exposure and recruiting are more important.
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I'd be shocked if ABC stops mirroring, matter a fact, with the money involved, I'd expect more of it. If you can draw 6m viewers in the SE, and 7m total nationally, they can split up the NE (ACC) and West (Pac/B12) with two 3m broadcasts and get 12m total. This is how the NFL does it as well, with each DMA being partitioned only to a local team in their home game. Annoys those of us who want to watch a different game, but maximizes eyeballs across the entire window. It wouldn't shock me if Fox/NBC/CBS did this as well with the Pac/B12 negotiations to say, split up a window where the Big Ten game is out east to mirror it with a Pac 12 game out west.
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More. Some because they have three groups bidding against each other and some because Oklahoma and Texas' T3 revenues are "off the books" of the SEC, e.g. not on the SEC Network, ESPN pays directly.
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So, from this: NBC and CBS are taking 13 games, which seems about right. That's what the CBS deal was with the SEC before they expanded with A&M/Mizzou and CBS wasn't a big fan of going to 15 because it breaks into their golf programming. $380m/year is in year 4, so with a 4% escalator means year one is $350m and year 7 is $428m. That's $26-$33m per game, or more than CCGs bring in now. If Fox pays 20% more for 15 games, that gives them $1.2B (in year one) for 65% of their inventory. The rest falls to BTN, which also pays the conference, and they'll likely get rid of BTN2Go to allow BTN streaming on some platform to sell that too.
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The noon eastern gets a bad rep, but it is premier as one of the highest grossing slots, not only due to viewership of the game, but those games power pregame viewership you don't get later on, multiplying the value.
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Yeah, where I was going was more NBC will air every Big Ten game involving ND. When they are in South Bend, 3:30pm. When they're away, slot in prime.
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From the ex pres of Fox Sports. That was in regard to this question, since the tweets down load graphically any longer: "Is it possible for them to stipulate “exclusive” windows, in terms of “no B1G games on national tv during noon, 3:30, 7pm except the specific network?” Example: FOX not allowed to have a 3:30/7pm B1G game on?"
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On ND - I'm not buying the Flugar tweet. But there is smoke here. Either it allows ND to stay Indy because if they're going to pay $300m for Big Ten shoulder games, they'll give ND the money they want. If ND only needs $75-100m, they get $12m from the ACC, so why wouldn't NBC pay them $75ish mill a year? However, that is leaving half of ND's games on ESPN, as they play 5 against the ACC. The way to up ND's payment is to get all of ND's games on NBC, even the away games, so all you have on NBC on 3:30 eastern every saturday, is Irish football. If they play Army, they're on. If they play Indiana, they're on. If they play USC, at USC, they're on. They can only do that if in an agreement with the Big Ten and that would allow NBC to pay more for Big Ten games. If they do this, no way Fox doesn't grab Stanford for the ND game and NoCal BTN homes. They'd just wouldn't be able to broadcast all their other sports until 2036 without writing a check to the ACC. ESPN would also lower the ACC's valuation without 5 ND games a year, so its not necessarily a slam dunk, even if its way cheaper for them to move than say, Clemson. On Pac/B12 - Yeah, this isn't a bad plan for ESPN. If they're getting nothing, they're not going to want to give more to the Big Ten. I'd fully expect Oregon/Washington to get the Texas/OU conversation about moving to the Big 12. Its a shame they didn't do that first, but I don't think they expected UCLA/USC to move. They have a couple ways they could deal with it: Leave the Pac/B12 alone and split timing, giving the Big 12 noon/afternoon slots on ESPN/ESPN2 and a Thursday night feature on ABC, then give the Pac 12 Prime/Latenight and the Friday feature. Guessing you'd see about a $45-50m deal there for each. Pluck the Pac. The B12 is in a safer place having a year longer to wait for a deal. With 3 big players off the market, that really only leaves the Mouse. Why pay for Oregon State/WSU/etc. You want Oregon/Washington. The question becomes who has value with them in the Big 12 to get to 16. Go all in. The world ante'd up big to get the Big Ten, so take the rest and reshuffle the deck a bit. If ND leaves, the ACC has 14. Move UCF/WVU to the ACC to take them to 16, then take 6 from the Pac to have the Big 12 lean more west. Then the ACC gets noon, the Big 12/ACC split mid afternoon, and the Big 12 gets late night. You only have to pay 32 teams to do that instead of 36, which while not massive, still amounts to around $160m a year, or $10m more to the teams you keep. Increase the payout to both by having H/H scheduling between the two conferences.
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Yeah makes sense. I didn't go back to count but I know they don't run football all day. ABC doesn't even do it all day and they had the most rights. A lot of Fox's content fell to the FSs. However 36 games at $20m a pop is $720m a year. If they're getting $600m out of NBC and CBS for 25-30 games, I'm guessing Fox's deal is closer to $500-600m for the top 20-25 games. At the low end that puts 27 games on either the FSs or BTN. Since Fox has 61% of BTN now, they'll make that money back on LA carriage alone. And, due to that, I'd expect to see anyone who isn't Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State playing UCLA/USC on BTN to maximize SoCal carriage.
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Fox doesn't really run 3 games a day. They run about 30 games total throughout the season. So I'm with you, but I'm not sure they're paying for a lot of extra big ten games, especially not the 4th one. They do get the BTN too, and could dump shit on FS1. Maybe Fox gets into the Big12/Pac12 too then for a game a week. Yeah ABC gave the SEC $300M for their T1 rights, including the CCG, but by gaining them all, they can put them wherever they want them or show more than one a week. Easier to make a dime on that. $350m for 13-14 games at 3:30 every week, without a CCG, when it's NEVER the top game of that week? The Cocktail party will outdraw Michigan State/Wisconsin. Something's wack or CBS is dumb.
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Man this seems high. They were paying $75m a year for the top SEC game of the week and wouldn't pay $300m for the league they've been marketing for two decades. Now they're going to pay $350m for the second or third best Big Ten game of the week? This has a bit of leaking in negotiations stink to it.
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Right, but the top game of the week, the A game, is Fox Noon. The second pick will likely swap between NBC Prime and CBS 3:30, as neither want to pay as much as Fox. Its also the B game for NBC, because their 3:30 A match up is anything involving ND.
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Eh, no. If NBC is bidding on the B Prime game for the Big Ten, it means their 3:30 A slot is dedicated to ND. ND has already said they need $75m a year to stay Indy. They get $12m from the ACC, so NBC just needs to pay them a bit over $50m for that slot, which they made more valuable by adding a game after. If the Big Ten had taken the NBC 3:30, then ND would be having issues. The Big Ten is likely waiting until closer to 2034 for the next ND talk, which also means Oregon/Washington/Stanford aren't getting a lifeline. Snap judgement on the Big 12 though may be wrong. the mouse needs to fill 6 games on ESPN/ABC per Saturday. I'm confident they'll get 4 from the SEC/ACC, leaving a couple to pick up for either the Big 12/Pac12. I'd expect that we see the Big 12 get Noon/3:30 openings, along with a Thursday ABC package, while the Pac 12 grabs a Prime/late night dual, with a Friday ESPN.
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This is HUGE for the Big Ten, they will be nearly clearly in the media revenue lead for a while. Also HUGE news for the Irish and the ACC, as the domers can stay indy. This is terrible news for the Pac 12 and Big 12, who needed the CBS or NBC window. I'm guessing the Big 12 has the advantage here to play "let's make a deal" with the exit, but its a coin toss at this point.
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That's a terrible comparison. It isn't really a debate whether undefeated Ohio State or Texas can out draw UCF. I don't think anyone with a brain would start arguing against that. 5-0 Georgia v 4-0 Texas will ALWAYS have a T-1 designation, hell all of Texas' games were T1 last year with 5 wins. What will be interesting is how the top end of the non B1G/SEC can compete with the rest of the games. For instance, does 2-3 Mizzou v 3-1 SoCar get pushed to the SECN so that 5-0 UCF vs 4-0 OkSt gets a national spot. I'd wager yes since nearly all of Missouri's games were on the SECN last year as it is. The vast majority of the SEC/B1G's games will be on their conference networks. I'd be surprised if the South Carolina's of the world ever got on national tv again.
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To be fair, that's kind of what most of the Big 12 needs now, is consistency for a decade or so. If someone in their can steal a natty along the way it will help. Its not about this media deal, or the one in 2030 (because I doubt they'll sign a long one). Its about the one in 2035, right before the ACC's is due. That's where they need to be focused and to do that they need schools playing their best ball.
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That's basically all big cities. But, you'd figure in a town of 7m people they could get 50k people to give a shit, hell start with 30k. Don't they have a marketing program they could practice with?
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Not sure about Houston, but UCF has been on a recruiting tear lately. They're not Bama, but they're starting to get kids they couldn't sniff before. Also, don't sniff kids unless they're your own. It's not appropriate.
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