Football ...
Basketball ...
Baseball ...
Other Sports ...
Futbol ...
🤫995🤫 ...
Gambling ...
Movies & TV ...
Music ...
Hobbies ...
Lulz ...
Food & Travel
...
Daily Texan ...
Business & Markets ...
Cloak Room ...
Help ...
For Sale ...
Board Discussion ...
Advertise...
Tailgate Donations
-
Posts
2294 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Store
Downloads
Recruiting - 2020
2019-2020 Football Season
Football
Entertainment
Sports
News and Business
Cloak Room
Transfer Portal
Recruiting
Events
Everything posted by Hurtlocker
-
Send Wake/Kansas/Duke/Cuse to the Big East. More likely you'll dump a Washington State than Rutgers at this point.
-
This is SEC scheduling. Outside Georgia who tends to get 10 P5 teams, most of the others get 8-9.
-
I'd actually prefer that all these contracts scrap the "revenue" sharing model and move to a NCAA tournament style payment system. Make it a rolling three years, so universities can budget, within the contract and you're paid for performance, conference wins, division titles, conference titles, bowl wins, playoff appearances, natties, etc. You net 7 wins over three years as Florida, you're paid like that for the next three years. You win 30 and play in a playoff as Rutgers, you're paid for that the next three years. Bama would clean up while Vandy would be paid as they're worth. If we're going to talk about earning your keep, let's pay that way.
-
Good stuff man. Yeah, except for a few, rare, match-ups, conference networks are not metered in any shape or form. The Big 12 doesn't have one so every game is broadcast and metered. The averages for all teams go down, but the total is higher. For the rest of the conferences very few teams are always on a national network, hell Missouri got one game...one. As did Kentucky and Vandy. The rest of their games were on the SEC Network. Since OkSt and ISU were used earlier, if you go back and remove their bottom three games their averages jump considerably, hell ISU's average swells by 40% when you remove Baylor/KU/TCU, beating the 6 game averages of Oregon and USC. The original point that everyone's best game is against Texas has validity, and its no different than playing OSU or ND or Bama in other conferences. Some of it is a larger audience, but a lot of it is the brand gets on the big networks. In the example above Texas and Oklahoma had all but one game on a T1 channel (ESPN is like T1.5 at this point). OkSt had 6 and ISU had 5. That helps a lot. OkSt/ISU only drew 20% less than Texas/ISU when both were on T1 channels. Texas v Tech and Texas v WVU drew 2.75m on ABC/FOX, but Tech v WVU only drew 675k. Most likely because it was on ESPN2. FS1 is even worse. What we also see here when looking at all the holes in the other conferences metering is the financial effect of conference networks. While this allows them to bury the fodder for affiliate fees, it also allows them to only pitch the best games that week to their over the air partners. ALL of the team averages are higher, because their bad games are removed from the meter. Due to that the value of the total contract is higher. It isn't that Texas always pulls a lot of people, it is they pull a bitch load amount in their top four games. And that's what you'll see in 5 years: 3-5 big match ups a year on regular TV, which likely will draw between 3.5-6m on average, with the occasional massive games when both teams are ranked and in the running for a division at the end of a year. That's why the SEC's T1 deal pays out twice as much as the Big 12s. All of the games are big because they only let the big ones get on TV. This begs the question of what to do with all the games not shown? This is where everyone needs to stop saying "DMA's don't matter anymore its all content". They fucking matter a ton. USC and UCLA paid for themselves not with their eyeballs, but because BTN can now get full carriage for 5.7 million homes in LA, which easily amounts to over $100m per year in affiliate fees alone. The DMAs for Oregon and Washinton, combined, isn't even half of LA. That's why they aren't getting picked up by the B1G. It's also why @Al_4_ISU is right that ISU is clearly a Top50 program now in performance and support, but also why they're not being woo'd. The Des Moines DMA is not NYC or LA or Dallas or Chicago, etc. Their DMA would net the B1G roughly $9m a year at most. Only way you get courted with that market is being a big brand. This is the Nebraska vs Rutgers conversation all over again. (side bar, if you do that all over again you take Rutgers over Nebraska as their DMA is worth up to $140m for BTN) So the SEC boosted their T1/2 games by adding Texas and Oklahoma, who won't factor into the T3 revenue payouts, as each is paid directly by ESPN for LHN and Soonervision. Unlike with the Big 12, this isn't an additional check, its an "in lue of" SEC Network money. It also will make everyone even at the end of the day, so no one is upset. The Big Ten boosted their T1 with USC and their T3 network with LA. While its fun to speculate 20-24 teams and killing off conferences, it's also likely where it stops until ND decides. The only other school for the B1G which may come close is Stanford who could bring $50m from the SanFran market. UNC/UVA/GTech have legs, but the math isn't as favorable, something would start to decrease. On the other side, Clemson/FSU don't build the SECNetwork and dilute the T1 contract further. This is where the Big 12 has a bit of leverage that gets lost in the shuffle. They lost their key brands, you're not making that up quickly nor easily, but they've got serviceable brands with good support, doubled the size of their DMA households, even after the loss of Texas/OU, and picked up more inventory. If they added the four corners or the six they've mentioned, they could create a linear network that, while not going to touch BTN/SECN, will definitely make up a lot of the revenue they're losing. If they got half of what the B1G/SEC charge the network could be worth around a half bill if done right.
-
The SEC does not want to freeze out ND. They're ND's biggest Indy supporter. If they freeze them out, they join the B1G
-
Yeah, while big match ups do draw more, they require both teams to be doing well. A 10-0 Bama vs a 0-10 Georgia doesn't draw anywhere near the numbers as if Georgia's number being flipped. But unless you're one of those top ten brands, what matters most to your viewership is WHERE your game is shown and, to a smaller degree, when. CBS*>ABC>NBC*>Fox>ESPN>ESPN2>FS1>ESPNU>FS2>anything else, including conference networks. CBS and NBC get a boost because they only market one game and they market the ever-living hell out of it. The Big 12 should be begging CBS for that 3:30 slot that no one wants because they won't pay top dollar for it. Take the game, give the money, absorb the massive amount of exposure CBS marketing will bring it. From a timing standpoint it goes: east coast Saturday primetime> Noon/3:30 eastern > Off schedule afternoon (like 2 or 5pm eastern) > late prime est> Friday night >Thursday night > After dark. Put Indiana v Rutgers on ABC at 3:30pm and it will do a metric fuck ton better than you think it will. Likely getting 2m viewers who just can't be assed to turn their dial and will watch anything. The games with the highest viewership always fall into one of two camps: Big game, with big names, with big stakes on the line, that's heavily marketed, who play a very close game going into the final minutes. Or, a big team with a lot on the line playing close and/or getting upset. If you've got one of those games above and its over in the 1st, everyone turns the dial and the ratings go in the shitter.
-
Welcome to Twitter.
-
Thanks for the clarification, man
-
Sounds like UCLA was bleeding money to the tune of like $40m a year and was already $100m in the red. It was either figure out how to charter flights for everyone or get rid of sports. The Pac has this issue from top to bottom though, they tend to have the most sports, which costs far more as well.
-
Yeah, if you want to relegate, you need to destroy conferences, but there is a large subset who will never want to destroy conferences. In other news, it was 2019, but here is the top 30 in football attendance. I'm guessing not a ton has changed since:
-
The only one I can see them adding in the West Coast now is Stanford and that is only if ND requests it. UVA/UNC would have to come as a pair and GTech gives them Atlanta.
-
This is sort of where I was going with the fantasy relegation discussion. So what exactly are the metrics that would be used to sort out the top 48? Attendance, Spend, wins? If it is success, what is the date range? Does Yale get in? How do we lay this out and say, "you want in? Meet these requirements"?
-
This thread is all about the spitballing, so... I don't think 2 will be enough, unless they grow past 16. The Premier league has 20 teams, but in a country the size of California with 70m people. The other benefit is they don't have conferences, which I think would need to be step one here, just firebomb that concept, have the CFB grab an anti-trust get out of jail free card from Congress like the NFL has, then put some rules in place like how much you're going to spend to play for the top tier, and see who antes up. And make them do it without broadcast backing, add that into the mix once the seats are settled. That way the Mississippi State or Indiana's of the world don't get a free pass. I'm guessing you'll still have 40-50 teams who ante up, some of which do it easily, some who get a second mortage to do so.
-
I like. Do you do it regionally, like: MAC --> Big Ten SunBelt --> SEC CUSA --> ACC AAC --> Big 12 Pac 12 --> WAC Or just Total top five replace bottom of each every 3-4 years?
-
We are still living in that world. USC/UCLA are primarily paid for through BTN revenues from in network carriage in SoCal. Whatever the Big 12 becomes could increase their revenues as well due to their DMAs nearly doubling from the ten team.
-
Likely because you have this mess: Best Brands: Washington and Oregon Best Markets: Phoenix and San Fran/Oakland Most willing to GTFO: Arizona and Arizona State. So get the ones willing to run, destabilize it more, and be there with open arms to the rest who come since no one is coming to them. The Big Ten can sit at 16 for a decade waiting for ND, and they will. Oregon and Washington have to go to market next year.
-
probably because they will jump and they are major state universities. The Big 12 isn't thumping melons to find the ones that are just right, its grabbing value to stay alive. The Cal/Stanford market though is something I'm sure they will go for. Let's pretend they do get the six and the Big Ten takes Stanford and ND to 18. I think the question becomes who does the Big 12 take with Cal to get to 20. The Big Ten/SEC are fighting with brands, the Big 12 has to eat the other sharks in the womb with footprint, performance, and marketing.
-
Bob Trollsby is genius. I'm sad I didn't think of it sooner.
-
Yeah Stanford is a ND carrot.
-
And that says 2027, not the 2036 that's been reported. That could spell trouble for the ACC if teams don't want to extend.
-
I'm not sure the structure or name of the conference matters too much at this point. It appears that the Big 12's bylaws are tighter than the Pac's, due to already dealing with realignment. At the end of the day though it won't matter. What matters is ESPN. The Big 12 is in bed with both ESPN and Fox; ESPN has thrown its weight behind the SEC, Fox is doing the same for the Big Ten. Since UCLA/USC went to the Big Ten and Texas/OU went to ESPN, the Big 12's GoR would affect ESPN more than Fox If ESPN provides backing to the Big 12 over the ACC/Pac12 with value time slots and channels (e.g. ESPN/ABC over ESPN2), or basically promising them the current Big Ten slots, (or pushing for a linear channel to take advantage of their DMA bump) the Big 12 could waive its GoR and ESPN could schedule Texas/Oklahoma in SEC games as early as 2024. The Big 12 then doesn't give a shit what the Pac/ACC's contracts say then because, like Texas/Oklahoma to the SEC, that's between them and their ex, not the new conference. The GoR is the only issue that muddies the broadcast waters. The Big 12 is playing a different game right now than the Big Ten and SEC, and it has to. It is already going to make more money than they do now, but not the $100m a school money. I'd expect their next deal would be an average of about $50-60m on a short contract, which wouldn't include the Texas/OU buyout money. What they have done well is expanding their market. They need to have every school invest heavily in sports, not just play them for the hell of it, and keep their competitiveness high. When winning the non-brand schools do draw very well. If over the course of this next contract they've been competitive in the post season, they'll start bumping up. Their next contract is the growth contract...if they do well, then they start getting to the reward ones the Big Ten/SEC sign.
-
- All it takes is one team left to keep the conference. They can expand with all the St. Mary's of the Blind they want, but the conference will still function. Only way to dissolve is unanimous vote. Also, the Big 12's bylaws had a section added after 2010 that the moment you announce your intention to leave you lose your vote. So, Texas and Oklahoma couldn't vote to disband. - Per earlier posts, there are GoRs to contend with and buy outs to leave the conference. In some situations, like the Big 12, they have written in that there could be future penalties due to diminished worth, but that's a court room conversation. You'll have the buyout even if you leave without a GoR or after it. To break it it would take a negotiation of some sort. If I remember right the B12's buyout is last two years revenue. By leaving in 2024-25 there isn't the legal fight, but the buy out remains. - For the Pac, their biggest issue right now is their media contract ends next year and they lost LA. It's cheaper to flee the Pac 12 currently than it is any other conference due to that.
-
College realignment's next steps: ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 scramble amid chaos Snippets:
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!