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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Yeah I imagine inside the SEC/Big Ten area it all comes down to ND. The Big Ten can now offer them more and bigger rivalries than anyone else, especially if they scoop up Stanford. Losing ND could break the ACC...so: Big Ten: ND and Stanford to 18, try and get UVA/UNC (those two schools are tied at the hip) to 20. SEC: Clemson and three of VTech/FSU/NCState/Miami to 20 Big 12: Ducks, Huskies, ASU, Arizona, Utah, Colorado to 18 After that, this is who is left: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, Wake, GTech, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal and some leftovers of the VTech/FSU/NCS/Miami Wake/WSU/Oregon State definitely seem like odd men out.
  2. Also they voted them in and THEN voted for them to lose their status.
  3. The ACC borrowed the B12's GoR language and there wasn't a dissolve point. It's a Hunger Games play. ND apparently signed an agreement that if they join any conference by 2035, it will be the ACC. Of any team talked about, ND is the least likely to be held back by an agreement. They're also that girl who walks through a bar without cash, gets four drinks bought for her and returns to her boyfriend with $50 and drinks. The B1G's deal was rumored to be $1.5 billion a year before today's news. I'm pretty sure Fox/Apple/Whoever would give the ACC $100m in a blink of an eye to lock up ND's rights and ND wouldn't drop a dime. Media companies aren't doing that for anyone else.
  4. More on timing Today, June 30, would be the last day USC and UCLA could inform the Pac-12 they intend on leaving the conference if they want to avoid potential additional financial penalties, three sources tell CBS Sports' Matt Norlander. The active Pac-12 grant of rights expires on June 30, 2024.....so if you wanted to know why this is coming out today, there is your answer. David Cobb That doesn't make it sound like others will be able to duck out and follow.
  5. Missouri, Mississippi State, Vandy, South Carolina, Rutgers, Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern and company would like to say hi.
  6. So..... There have been talks that at some point schools would start opting out of the arms race. Not sure how this guy got this, but it could also hint that we'll see some not ante up going forward.
  7. There is a reported clause that if they join any conference before 2035 it has to be the ACC. The Big Ten can pay off the ACC, their contract was already going to be north of the SECs, now it is going to be gigantic.
  8. Having USC in the fold definitely helps. Now ND can join and play in NYC and LA and keep their service academy Non-cons. Also, that would fucking explode the Big Ten's value.
  9. I love that you still have this.
  10. I can attest no one gives a fuck about Rutgers outside New Brunswick. Most people don't even know where it is, let alone that it's a state school. The care/no care mason dixon line for football is Pennsylvania. That's where it starts becoming a thing and even that is hit or miss until you hit the southeast. I went to ND@UVA last year, picked up tickets on the 50 for next to nothing, and there were maybe 40k people there. That wouldn't happen in the Midwest or South, its just a different vibe, much like the West Coast.
  11. ha, yeah, the concept is right, but some of those numbers are laughable. Viewership does not agree with those under the top ten with much accuracy
  12. Hahaha, true dat, but...apparently they'll lose 20M subscribers due to cricket
  13. Not really on point, but Amazon and Apple are starting to spend the money that has be speculated. Not in massive numbers yet, but likely this is just the toe in the water: The money seems low, but MLS has added in a lot of free games to build exposure.
  14. CBS isn't giving the SEC more money, that's how they lost the deal in the first place. They never even wanted to go to 15 games because it interferes with golf. ESPN isn't going to pay more until they have all the games, which isn't until 2024. It really has nothing to do with who is broke or not it is more why pay nearly $100m and risk damage lawsuits when you can just ride it out for two years and do nothing. There isn't really anything to gain the short term.
  15. I think the SEC/ESPN are good waiting, so why waste money. Currently it would be a "more mouths to feed" issue because they're still on their much lower payout CBS contract. ESPN will want the move to occur when they take the T1 rights, which is 2024.
  16. Possible, and at that time they'd draw on all the revenue streams. Pretty sure LHN pays out more then SECN for Texas though now that it's in the back end of the contract.
  17. 1 - I think he was saying the other Big 12 schools didn't do something to drive people away, matter a fact they did what you'd want them to do, invest heavily in facilities. Places like Tech and ISU have gone from having like $40m athletic departments to $100m. I think @SL Xpress nailed it down pretty well. Its not that @Al_4_ISU didn't do what was asked of him, they weren't leaches. The big issue was losing Nebraska and A&M. You need more than two tent poles. The only difference between Mississippi State/Iowa State or Kansas/Iowa/Illinois/Kentucky is where you happened to be originally. Those are never going to be tent pole schools, but some get fed and some don't primarily due to recruiting. 2 - The Big 12's officiating is not one sided. There are so many terrible calls. So. Many. Follow Big12Refs on twitter. 3 - LHN, by contract, doesn't have any Big 12 games included and its only 1 in football a year as it is. To get a second or to get a Big 12 game, the other school has to agree to it. 4 - Very weird comment. Are you going to say this is douchy too? 5 - You're both basically saying the same thing here and you can't have it both ways. The only brands that have been built in the past three decades have done so by winning at an egregious rate. Namely the run FSU had under Bowden and the Miami run, both included "nattys". Clemson is probably the only other one of note and I don't think its hit the FSU/Miami level yet, even with two rings. Oregon is the odd duck here, but that's mostly due to marketing. Outside that, everyone with a massive fanbase that outpaces its alumni are schools that have been historically good, e.g. what you did in the 60s/70s/80s/90s. Its sort of like how the Steeler fanbase outperforms Pittsburgh's population. Kids tend to lock on to whoever is winning when they grow up, not always the local team. Now, to be fair Al, no one ever values what you could be, except venture capital, and they don't do it for free. If you want to be part of the eyeball club, go win. KState isn't a "brand" now, but two decades of winning makes them a lot more viable than prior, same with Baylor. Hell the only difference between Iowa and Iowa State is Iowa hired Fry in 1980, giving them a 3 decade head start over Campbell. Boise State is known only because it would take any chance it could to be on TV, no matter what day of the week, and they won a lot and in big games. Being consistently in the Top 25 or Top 10 over decades builds a brand, which gains eyeballs, which has a value in media rights deals. Its really the only way to do it.
  18. It will be a smaller share until the OU/LHN deals run out. The other 14 are paid for the SEC Network, UT/OU won't be on it. Their shares will be based off all the other revenue but the SECN
  19. The SEC and Big Ten are talking about $1-1.4 billion dollar deals a year, that basically amount to around 64-70 games a year. Amazon paid the NFL $1B a year for 17 games. On Thursday night. The benefit to an Amazon/Apple getting involved is they don't have windows like broadcast networks who have to constantly monitor to put the biggest match ups on to pay for their deals.. Amazon and Apple could play 6 games at 12, 6 at 3:30 and 6 at primetime and they'd just add the viewership up for all of them. Doesn't matter if one outperforms or not, its total streaming. Very little risk that way.
  20. I cannot make the math work on how you get to 64 and leave out the Big 12. The new make up of the P5 will be 69 (teehee). You get rid of the Big 12 you're at 57. Personally, the super league concept I think will negate a lot of what conferences do right now - assuming they can solve the antitrust dilemma. It will be the BigTen/SEC agreeing to some rules (NIL, scholarships, recruiting, etc) and validations (like you have to invest in these many sports, or this much in facilities, or this much in medical, whatever). And then the rest will either be in or out depending on if they choose to invest or not. Instead of seeing a conference go, I think its more viable you see a few Washington States, or Wake Forests of the world go, "yeah, we're out." If you guys thing the money being talked about for this round of negotiations is crazy, just wait if a super-league had no conferences and shared all the media rights within the league. One of the biggest things keeping down the value of CFB right now is how fractured it is. If they went to market together they'd be the NFL light.
  21. Smartest thing the new Big 12 could do is take the old SEC CBS deal. CBS didn't want to pay more than $150m a year and they marketed the shit out of it. Give the money, take the exposure, stay in front of people. To thunders point, there are only 10 big time slots every Saturday and six of them are the Mouse. You're not on those any more.
  22. Yeah, the Big 12 is currently saddled with a T1 deal that is miserable. When they did the deals a decade ago, they broke them all up on different timing, so they never really had them to put on the market at the same time. They realigned their T2 deals about 5 years ago and extended the timing on them to 2025ish to sync with the T1. That negotiation is actually the first time in a very long time they'll have all their inventory to go to market at the same time. They were always destined to make a jump in a few years just for the market correction. The future make up will see some of this jump, but its curve is not going as high as it would have been with UT/OU in the mix. And, ironically, with the T3 deals TX/OU have, those two likely would have stayed even with B1G/SEC regardless. Overall, I am not sure I agree that they'll fall to 5th. They're losing their tent polls and you can't make up the loss of royalty. But the on-field product, tv viewership, AD funding, and fan support of the bulk of the remaining schools is still better than all but about 4 teams in the PAC/ACC combined.
  23. This basically shows that the move is not about broadcast dollars, which is the easy thing to talk about. It is purely about recruiting. It got written off for a while, but the SEC has made major inroads in Texas once A&M moved. On top of that ESPN pimps A&M far more now than both Texas and OU. Exposure is always more important than money for CFB. If you can slap the same sticker on you can fight fire with fire on the recruiting trail and with the Mouse. But if you lose those battles for too long, its over. (SEE: Nebraska). The SEC was estimated to pay out $50-60m per prior to the move, with the switch over from CBS. With the Texas/OU move the estimates have been $70-$80m. The Big Ten is estimating a $1B deal, which pays out about $70-75m per school once you add in the rest of the revenue. With OU/UT both making around $15m on T3 rights, they were currently being paid around $60m today, three years prior to the next contract. And the next contract for the Big 12 was the first time they could go to market with all the inventory at once (which helps because they're currently saddled with a painfully old T1 contract that pays atrociously and was signed for too long). Following that trend line OU/Texas would be making something in the $70s no matter where they stayed or went. You don't make a move like this for rounding error money, you make it so your name is in the echo chamber.
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