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Everything posted by Hurtlocker
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There is zero chance that Disney would participate in this. Their entire business, not just in sports, is based on locking up grants of rights, they're not going to act to weaken them.
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It actually has been held up in court. Numerous artists have fought this and lost. It doesn't matter if it is someone signed on for 5 albums or a school saying they're going to play for five years. The grant includes the expectation of performance and if you don't perform you don't get paid. Even if they let only SEC crews in, ESPN will have to deal with the Big 12 on the rights. This isn't overly complicated, they either play out the agreement or someone purchases the rights from the Big 12. They currently seem to be wanting to play it out, since they haven't technically withdrawn yet either. They're just stating, we're not reupping the next contract. In that case, the Big 12 withholds revenue in 2023-24 and the move occurs. Totally agree with you on uncertainty though. I think the expansion is a sign a longer term deal is being crafted with ESPN for the Big 12 for handing over the rights to Texas/Oklahoma.
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Ha, has UMass played basketball since Calipari had Camby there?
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Actually, it is exactly how it works and it is why a grant of rights is so iron clad. All the Big 12 schools gave their rights to a specific property, in this case home broadcasts of T1/2 match ups. The entity they granted those rights to, in this case the Big 12 conference or the SEC in the future, owns those rights in their entirety and has them packaged together to media bundles that flow back to the universities. Until that GoR expires, none of the schools can negotiate something different, because they don't technically own their rights any longer. And, as mentioned, what makes it so powerful, is that the rights automatically return to the school at a said time, they are not losing rights indefinitely. Due to that the argument becomes more, "So...you just don't like the agreement you signed" instead of "this agreement you signed isn't legal" Sovereign immunity doesn't really apply. It may seem like these grants are new, but they've been used for eons in entertainment. When a band signs a record deal, they are granting the rights to their current and future songs to a label or publishing house for some period of time for the benefit that group gives them in promoting their work. They can't sign with one label, and then put an album out on a second, without the permission of their main label. You may see credits in movies for soundtracks where an artist will "appear courtesy of X label" when the soundtrack is on another. They work a deal. This happens with books, TV shows, movies, podcasts, etc etc. Anywhere someone pools and/or distributes something someone else created, a grant of rights exists to handle the monetization of those assets. The NFL has them and all of CFB uses them. The only difference lately is extending the GoRs from a single year (which was done so some school couldn't sell individual games when a conference had an agreement with a media partner) to extended years (like recording or production agreements) to provide less risk to media partners to generate greater revenues. So in this case, there are two things hindering the movement to the SEC. The first is the buyout, which is two years revenues from the time withdraw is stated (which hasn't been stated yet, by the way) and the second is the Big 12 owning the rights to all Texas/Oklahoma home games through 2025 (minus 1 game a year, defined by the one the current media partners find least desirable). It is not pay the buyout and the rights are returned. It is both. If they moved to the SEC next year, they'd still have the two year buyout (one year would be collected in non-paid revenue and one would be writing a check) and then ESPN would need to negotiate with the Big 12, NOT Texas and Oklahoma, for the rights to those games and their value, through the end of the GoR. ESPN can't negotiate with Oklahoma and Texas as they, literally, have nothing to sell that hasn't already been sold. The most likely end result here is that ESPN will make an offer to the Big 12 to buy the rights at some point, likely when the move from CBS occurs around 2023. This wouldn't be too difficult to be honest. What the Big 12 wants is security and a seat at the table. ESPN can provide both and set them up for a decade to hand over the rights.
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In this case the value comes in volume and marketing ops. The easiest is they can set up marketing, made for TV games, laying out terms that the top 4 teams in the Big Ten will be placed in naming-rights games at the beginning of the next season against the top teams in the other two. With 28 home games a year in this deal, they can put them in NYC/DC/INDY/Philly/Chicago/etc and market the shit out of it. So lets say the top two of the Pac are USC/Oregon, the ACC is Clemson/Miami and the Big Ten's top four are Ohio State/Penn State/Wisconsin/Michigan you mix and match 4 games that are with the same as a bowl game on your media rights package. And that's not even including the other 24 games. (each of the other conferences could do something similar, but the Big Ten will take the best options for itself) The volume play is two fold, but based on how many guaranteed P5 games can you sell to a media partner. The Big Ten jumped from like $45 to $54m just buy going to 9 conference games and unloading more crap on BTN, so they were guaranteeing only the highest viewed games would see the air. This agreement basically allows them to sell ten, without having to have ten conference games. Not only can they get a bigger bump in revenue for selling more, higher valued games (OOC games are worth jack shit, always, unless they're made for tv and those are usually one offs, BECAUSE they aren't guaranteed to always be a P5 team.), but it also allows them to hedge their bets. With 10 conference games, the Big Ten would have 70 match ups to sell with a guaranteed 35 losses. Now, they'd have 70 match ups (the 2 away games to get to the total of 12 would be on the PAC/ACC's media deal), but only 28 guaranteed losses. That's just on the games they sell, if you factor in the other two games the percent of guaranteed losses over 12 games drops even more. If the Big Ten feels it would beat the Pac/ACC more than half the time, and I'd take that bet any day of the week, they're better off in positioning for the post season If it works they'd make a bunch more due to having more guaranteed games to sell without expanding, more teams with better records at the end of the season, with resumes of playing 12 teams in the P5 field, and they saddle the Pac12/ACC with more losses. Advantage Big Ten. It does strike me though that the math on this only works if all three conferences are sitting at 16. On top of that it wouldn't shock me either if ND didn't join the ACC, but joined the alliance and was given 5 games in the ACC and 6 in the Big Ten/Pac, leaving their last open date for Navy, which is almost what it is already. That expansion wouldn't need to be with big ticket schools, because the marketing is determined by wins, and all the non winning games are subsidized by conference networks. The volume of adding any two schools, however allows you to sell 15% more of the best matched up games than now. The issue in be doing this, that I can find, is it would put Clemson/SoCar, FSU/Florida, Louisville/Kentucky, and GTech/UGA would at risk, and ISU/Iowa, assuming they don't assimilate the Cyclones. There is no way though that, if they pull this off, that it doesn't make more for all of them. It basically patches the last remaining hole in CFB inventory, the unknown, and there for worthless, OOC games, which makes up over a quarter of the current schedule. Edit: actually, without expanding the conference season, it only works with ND joining the ACC, which would give them two against the Big Ten and PAC yearly.
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Yeah I think ESPNs miscalc was thinking they thought their best offer was joining AAC. I mean, even in the worst scenario the remaining 8 are better than the AAC.
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That's basically it. The Pac does want to drop to 8 games, but they can't and keep their contract intact. If they had 4 games to give, you could give two of them to the B1G/ACC, that gives them more games in the east coast. Granted that only gets you back to even, but you're back to even with more eyeballs. I think you also set up made for TV ones in the beginning of the year and fill in those bullshit filler games everyone has with just normal cross overs. Washington State v Syracuse isn't going to be a 4m game, but, to your point, its going to be worth a fuck ton more than Syracuse v Western Carolina or the Citadel, or the nameless rabble of bought games. While this helps the Pac/ACC, all I think it gives the B1G is puppet states, which may be what it wants most.
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Big Ten Translation: We ain't signin shit with you mofos
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This. I think its all about taking the playoffs out to bid and maybe the Pac wanting 8 conference games and more OOC out of the west coast, but mostly the playoff.
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To be fair though, is there something that doesn't trigger aggy?
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They don't draw terrible numbers and you could always do an Arrowhead feature like they do in DFW/Atlanta at the beginning of the year. I cannot imagine the Pac even accepting a call from Baylor, that's probably already blocked. So if Tech is trying to keep the three together, I guess the AAC jumps to 14.
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Yeah the two biggest things are either: 1) this says we won't feed on each other, so we're carving you up or 2) shore up your shit and we'll toss you some OOC scraps to vote how we tell you
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Yeah, honestly, I think this is a Pac play to be honest. They want to drop to 8 conference games to stop beating each other up, but know they can't with out other P5 games on the docket. Doesn't hurt the ACC either. They have 14 teams and only Louisville, Clemson, FSU and GTech play SEC crossovers every year, that leaves ten teams looking for better games as it is. The only reason I see the Big Ten dropping to 8 games is if they expand and add content. As for the playoffs, my guess is it isn't blocking it, its slowing it down. If media partners don't want to invest in CFB because they can't get a bite of the post season, then they're going to want to add to the structure to guarantee they do. One idea I heard is blowing up the bowl system and having it all run through CFB (as opposed to a patchwork of individual interests) and then the first round would be on campuses and the next round would be in stadiums set in each conference's footprint, with domed stadiums being used in the north, each controlled by that conference and bid out. So the SEC could have a game with ESPN, and Fox could have one with the Pac, and the Big Ten CBS, etc. Then rotate the champ game like the NFL does every year or couple years. The thinking being if Fox can get some of the Big Ten's post season, they'll be more likely to invest in the Big Ten's regular season. As it sits now, they basically market the ESPN's end of year games. I'd also expect they hard code in more access, like limit the amount of teams per conference in the playoffs to three. TLDR: expansion will happen, but likely at the end of the contract instead of 2 years before.
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You don't pick up Texas and Oklahoma to play them against LESS SEC schools. The SEC has about 84 home games a year currently, 56 of those being conference games, and sells about 60-65% of those on their deals. That's about 1 CBS, 0.5 ABC and 1 ESPN a week, The rest end up on the SEC Network. Adding Oklahoma and Texas gets you about 96 home games, but moving to 10 conference games pushes you up to 80 conference games, which is a lot more valuable. At that point you're pretty much guaranteed 2 ABC and 2 ESPN games a weekend, every week of the season, with the rest falling to ESPN 2 and the SEC Network.
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yeah it seems to be about dropping to 8 conference games and adding more OOC match ups. I don't think this is an isolate the SEC move as it is a add more interesting match ups over all and gain a voting block in the process.
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The most meaningful quote I've heard so far from a "source" is a media exec informing one of the conferences that there is little interest bidding on the regular season if they don't get any of the post season games. We're getting to the point where the post season will be more than the regular season of all the conferences, combined. If I were them I wouldn't want to bid early either.
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The ones that made the most sense to me were: 1) slowing down the playoff expansion, mostly to slow down ESPN. The desire here being to take it out to bid in 2025 to multiple networks, like the NFL, to limit ESPNs power. 2) discussions on other rules they want in the playoffs, like Rose status or max teams per conference, which is also why they don't need the Big 12 in the room, as the only power 5 who crafted it were Bowlsby/Sanky
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Drank with a well connected Cuse grad tonight and he told me he heard the ACC is interested in Baylor, TCU and WVU. All I could do is go, "Alright, tell you what, I'll get the next round."
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Side note, burn notice was worth watching, and rebinging, for Ms. Anwar
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yeah, funny thing about populations growing. As DC says, if the enrollment doesn't go up too everyone is more difficult to get into.
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Well, at the time it was MUCH different. Everyone maybe had like 3-4 games a year on TV. Now everyone is on TV. But when the big brands were the only ones on ABC generating the bulk of the cash, it made a bit more sense. Ironically it was a response to falling behind owning a conference network, but still made sense for that situation.
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Ah Corn, you know just how to start seasons. We could all learn a thing or two.
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Swaim made a name for himself with FSU/Clemson to the Big 12 in 2011-12.
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Totes fake
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