Walk me through what the bank does differently if deposits are 100% guaranteed? You keep saying it, but what does it look like in practice? Bank A has deposits of $500M, makes loans using those deposits, holds treasuries and other ST investments to make some money on funds not loaned, etc. If that $500M becomes fully guaranteed what is the bank doing differently with those deposits? Riskier loans, riskier investments than treasuries, what? The bank is still exposed to risk of loss, regulatory requirements on capital, funds being moved ant any given time, etc. Do you think they all start rolling the dice and increasing the risk of default to the bank? I don’t see it. I can see where it pushes interest rates higher potentially (which could lead to more risk in the loan portfolio by extension) and causes bank consolidation which may not be positives, but this wholesale shift that covered deposits would creat doesn’t make sense.
Deposits are effectively covered now as has been stated numerous times. The timing of access has not been.