Old Freak Nasty

I thought that was pretty funny so I checked her X profile out just to see who she is. If you have 5 minutes, you should watch this in its entirety. She'll never be a Nazi. This is inspiring.

Not the cameras, just as much airtime on Fox News as possible. He delivers the daggers with total calm and control.

As far as the young voters, they are energized on X and TikTok, what can be done to actually get them to vote? Do they need help getting registered? What organizations specifically geared to getting youth to vote exist and are prominent?

How many Swifties we got?

I'm catching up on MSNBC coverage tonight and I just want to say Claire McCaskill is fire. If she hadn't been representing Missouri when it was transitioning to full MAGA, she may have been on a presidential path herself at some point. She is a sharp communicator, likable, and has a great wit. She is completely eviscerating the GQP on the air.

Yes, what I'm saying is to think critically about the polls. That much movement is because of the debate? Do they not smell funny to anyone else?

Let me rephrase to GQP control of firms that release results publicly. Because I think a lot of Democratic heartburn (and GQP arrogance) is driven by this polling that shows Biden is running well behind 2020. I don't think so many Dems would be calling for Biden to bow out if the polls were at 2020 actual levels today, even with all the signs of age. I think that's more the accurate picture today than the public polls paint.

What if the polling firms have been compromised? I seemed to have read that in the last 4 years GQP affiliated entities have become more interested in polling and have started them and/or acquired interest in them. I can see how a lot of their legal strategies and arguments in the court of public opinion could be buttressed by polls showing consistently inflated Trump support by implementing flawed methodology by design. Then when Biden wins they say the election was rigged, pointing to all the polling as evidence. I think the polls are wrong too, as we know both Trump and 3rd party candidates have a hard ceiling and the 3 way polls consistently exceed that hard cap looking at aggregate Trump + RFK totals.

Zonahorn, it appears you support Biden remaining the candidate because he is a decent favorite to win the election based on conversations you've had with people in the know as well as consideration for his administrations record and the fact that he won the primary. My question for you is do you and the people you know think Harris makes a worse candidate? What does eroded support for Harris in comparison to Biden look like? Less white voters in the critical swing states? Less overall turnout? Or is it concerns about the courts and the SC weighing in on whether Harris legitimately wins an election? I'm still not so sure who makes the better candidate between the two and as I am in the "just fucking win" camp I'm genuinely curious. My gut still tells me it's Biden but my read of the tea leaves says it's going to be Harris.

Agreed. To me, I think she's hitting a grand slam in her audition. She clearly has studied Obama's public speaking, and while it's evident her delivery, gestures, and tempo are practiced vs. the innate natural born talent that Obama is, it's still impressive. She also has shown the ability to simplify her messaging so that people quickly can understand what she's saying, especially on Project 2025. I think her candidacy, if it does become reality, will resonate.

Theory: Biden hasn't dropped out yet because Harris is still in her probationary period as candidate. She came out of her bunker shortly after the debate and I think the decision makers want to collect data on how she's perceived with the electorate. If the people, including Biden, see what they need to see they will transition to Harris. Until then, Biden and his team will forcefully suggest that he is all in, because he may have to stay in if the initial returns aren't good on Harris. I don't believe at all there is a plan C and I think this is a prudent approach given that behind the scenes there are still many elected Democrats on both sides of the Biden/Harris fence. You need to be as certain as you can be in trying to determine which of Biden or Harris is the best candidate to win the EC and I think that is a more important consideration than moving quickly because of worry about the effect of Biden slander (which I've already opined that I don't think it ultimately matters at all). Right now you have options. If you sideline Biden, it's Harris. You can't say "oops" then.

And unstated, but true, he doesn't give a fuck about approximately 70m of his own voters. These people are truly something to believe this idiots lies. No wonder Republicans, amongst so many other things, are full frontal assault on education in this country. It's like the Taliban creating child soldiers.

It's going to be cute when all the MAGA Latinos try to explain in vain on their deportation flights, "no, I'm white!!"

Tim Scott's girlfriend is single now. I'm sure something could be worked out here.

I really don't see the impact of this coup in the long term for Biden if he remains the nominee. It will become a referendum on Trump the closer we get to the election. There are hard deadlines for this coup to work (or not) and I don't see it mattering. As long as the Dems don't run out Newsome, I think we win. Still think the best option is to stay with Biden as I've felt since the debate.

Latinos are on the forefront of this, but fuck my fellow Indian shitheads like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy and Raj Patel and Usha Vance and countless others in prominent Republican circles for supporting a movement that's coming for us too eventually. Maybe we are considered a "good" minority but all those people are morons for thinking because they hopped on the bandwagon they are immune to it.

This would be the best outcome. Let all the rumored candidates come out forcefully behind Harris and let's fucking win this election on that momentum.

Is that an official act?

Texans don't have any good reason to have heard of him. The people of the blue wall know him.

Figure it's going to happen at this point. I'm still not sure it's good or bad election-wise assuming it's Harris. If I had to pick my candidate, given the importance of Pennsylvania and the relative good standing the state has for Shapiro, I'd just run him and VP Harris but I don't think she'd go for it. 4 months is enough time for Shapiro to become known and he's a pretty good public speaker and policy-wise he's pretty centrist and would be palatable to undecideds and double haters. But it'll be Harris. She brings some good things and some bad. What is the net effect in the few states that matter we'll see.

Since the debate we now have had an assassination attempt and an 81 year old getting COVID. There’s 4 months left. No way the debate performance is going to register in 2 weeks, let alone 4 months.

Have you considered that this campaign to sideline Biden does not actually erode his electoral support in case he remains the nominee? Maybe polling will show dips but I don't think it will be persistent. I don't think people are thinking to switch to Trump or staying home or motivating MAGA turnout based on this movement turning public. If this is at all stress related I'd suggest stop watching news channels and try to get some more time outdoors. Hope you are fine. Best wishes.

The election still seems to be framed as Biden vs. Trump. It's too early for most people to think of it as Not Trump vs. Trump. But our assholes will get tighter as November approaches and hopefully the election is framed more in that manner as the days tick by.

Had anyone done a deep dive on RFK's support? I'd like to know specifically why he's generally polling at at least double the vote share of third party candidates in previous elections? His surname has something to do with it but it's not like he himself has a lot of fame. Maybe some of it is concern over Biden's age. My theory is that the delta over previous third party candidate performance is largely protest positioning. I believe it's not actual support for his platform or otherwise a marker of low intelligence and information that would lead you to believe that if his vote share dropped to conventional levels that Trump would get a bigger slice of the pie than Biden. These are the folks that are partly responsible for his terrible approval rating above and beyond which polarization can explain, be it over Gaza or student debt or old or some other issue. They are also the ones polling senate Dems. They'll continue to protest while it doesn't count, but will be back in the fold in November. If they are voting Trump they are polling Trump today. The veneer of shame people had polling/voting for Trump in 2016 and 2020 has vanished. They are loud and proud now. If you look at the polls of the alternative Dem candidates and how they position vs. Biden, I think there is a substantial overlap between RFKs support over historical baseline and the difference between Biden/other D. Maybe I just made up bullshit and they go vote for Trump. I also for mental health reasons don't watch any political TV and this thread is more or less it for my election/political news.

I believe 538 gives less weight to polling at this early stage in favor of economic markers and I believe incumbency. It's hard to know whether incumbency matters anymore for Biden though. I think as we get closer to the election and the model starts weighing polling more then the prediction will shift. I still don't think the polls are accurate and are too favorable to Trump. I think the RFK polling is not necessarily crazy people who are more aligned to Trump and that will end up going "home" to Trump in November, but rather pure protest polling by people likely to vote Biden and RFK is the "loudest" protest polling you can do. Polling for Maryanne Williamson doesn't register as a protest. I think a big bucket of RFK votes are actually going to vote Biden in the end. It's one way to reconcile the Senate/Presidency polling discrepancy. Well, that's what I'm going to choose to believe as I go to sleep tonight because it sounds like something Hunter would be telling his father right now.