Old Freak Nasty

There are no "wings" of the GQP.

It is a bizarre statement but I'm strongly surprised she laid blame at the feet of the correct party. She seems like the type that peel off the 20-30% Democrat vote in a place like WV or similar states/counties. Saying what she needs to say so that she's not ostracized by her friends and family who are assumed predominately MAGA after having lost her husband.

At least they had a gay white male on the ticket last time.

Trump has unpaused the campaign. It's time to get back to it Biden.

I was trying to find information on Ewers apparently being MAGA and came across this: https://larrybrownsports.com/football/sauce-gardner-epic-photo-donald-trump-shooting/636087 I think so many of these people coming out are cool tweeting this stuff out but registering to vote and finding out where to go on a Tuesday afternoon instead of staying at home to play video games and browse 4chan? Don't see it.

I know many of you are surrounded by Republican family members and friends, but I’ve been surprised by how many in my circle I’ve communicated with in the last day have said to me something to the effect “we were only inches from Haley or DeSantis”. These people have no personal affection for Trump. But my circle is more the rich, low taxes type than MAGA.

I actually think this is by and large true. The outcome will be determined by the Democratic GOTV operation, driven by Project 2025 and womens rights, and how effective it is in the swing states. I don't think anything either Biden or Trump do, besides dying, is material to the outcome of the election.

I'm sure someone will be polling Pennsylvania soon, so we'll see the immediate impacts of polling. I'm sure there will be a republican bump but transient in nature just like everything has been so far. Still curious to see how much the bump will be. Do pollsters publish data on respondent percentages?

Don't think there's any significant electoral impact of this. Everyone saying "I know who I'm voting for now!" already knew and are probably the most ardent of his supporters.

He won't be the last one to do so, and in the context of the election having more of them exhibit their crazy will be to the Dems benefit.

Do you apply this level of rigor in your analysis of other Trump situations and comments or only the ones that suit you? There are plenty of other Trump related items that need this level of critical analysis.

The coup seems to have failed. They'll try again before the convention. I'm not sure how I feel in terms of best odds to win the election. I'm still thinking it's Biden but I don't know how he can persistently be a flamethrower with an 8pm bedtime and no more major old episodes. It's possible, but is it probable? The closer we get to the election the more it has to become a referendum on Trump, whereas now all the coverage is on Biden. That has to change. I think it will but that's partly hope based, I'll admit.

Someone should convince Taylor Swift to run. That'll run up the democratic GOTV numbers for the group that never votes. Swift fills the any human with a pulse criteria for all the people that were already going to vote for Biden tomorrow.

Biden has to project that unwavering opinion that he is President and the running for re-election every time he is asked until that moment that he announces he's stepping down. There is no other answer. I doubt what is occurring behind the scenes reflects the public answers to those questions.

I'm of the opinion that the polling is gamed by respondents and that Biden is probably actually ahead in the determining states and from that prism I'd say riding this out with Biden is still the proper course ahead. That said, I can see the case for going with Harris as the lead up to Election Day will likely come with enough opportunities to stumble and if Biden does in any of those, it may happen when it's too late to do anything about it. I will say that if it is Harris she better be running as incumbent President. It won't work otherwise. So whatever might be happening behind the curtains, they need to get Biden to resign now if Harris is the play.

Because Trump voters are morons and there's probably several out there that will switch their vote to RFK or stay home because they believed that video or some other fake stupid thing. These types of misinformation/fakes that show weakness are far more impactful on these retards than minor things like insurrection.

The reason I still do it is not for the person I'm speaking to necessarily, but the other people around that may be listening in silence to the conversation. I'm desensitized enough to their drone like responses and stupidity so I'm able to keep an even keel emotionally (something I struggled with in the past) so I hope in some way I can influence someone who's around. I will never have a one on one conversation with a Trump voter again. That's futile and infuriating.

Unfortunately likely at least 4 years too late for that state but would be nice to dream.

Has Finebaum been pressed or opined specifically on 12-1 Texas vs. 12-1 Alabama for the 4th spot? I feel like he's trying to avoid the question by focusing in on FSU when that argument is actually irrelevant (they are above both if they win and below both if all have 1 loss). He's a moron but moves public sentiment.

What does a 3 team ML parlay pay: UM, Georgia, and FSU? Seems that's the only scenario that keeps us out (other than us losing).

The scenario seem pretty clear for us to get in. More interestingly, tell me who to root for this weekend for us to get a first round date with FSU. Is there any way that can be the 2-3 game?

Maybe when he is convicted he might find his way into one of these. https://www.vice.com/en/article/qkveav/drone-factory-farm-pig-feces-lakes

No longer useful to the Russians, seems he’s likely to fall out of a high rise window in DC in the next few months.

In a macro sense, does it even matter that Trump will produce more evidence for the prosecution at his press conference? As I see it Smith and Willis already have him dead to rights and he and the coup plotters are more focused on a post-conviction strategy that is based primarily on winning or a stollen election. As well as a hail mary play to get some MAGAts on the juries somehow such that the actual lawyering and evidence don't matter. In Trump's calculus, more media spotlight, lathering up the base electorally and insurrectionally, and assaulting confidence in our institutions is significantly more valuable than the downside of adding to Jack Smith's mountain of evidence. His attorneys are just whining because it makes an already impossible job harder but they have no ability to change the course that has long been charted. They are there just to bill and try not go to jail...and place their early bets to become the next Prigozhin in emperor Trump's America.

There's not any evidence, whether real or fabricated. Him announcing he's going to have some great reveal on Newsmax a week from now is just so MAGA has talking points amongst their silo and so they feel good about dropping $2-10 into the grift bucket. Because for them the only words from that tweet that have any meaning are "evidence" and "stollen". They are too dumb for nuance or full sentences.