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Old Freak Nasty

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Everything posted by Old Freak Nasty

  1. I really don't see the impact of this coup in the long term for Biden if he remains the nominee. It will become a referendum on Trump the closer we get to the election. There are hard deadlines for this coup to work (or not) and I don't see it mattering. As long as the Dems don't run out Newsome, I think we win. Still think the best option is to stay with Biden as I've felt since the debate.
  2. Latinos are on the forefront of this, but fuck my fellow Indian shitheads like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy and Raj Patel and Usha Vance and countless others in prominent Republican circles for supporting a movement that's coming for us too eventually. Maybe we are considered a "good" minority but all those people are morons for thinking because they hopped on the bandwagon they are immune to it.
  3. This would be the best outcome. Let all the rumored candidates come out forcefully behind Harris and let's fucking win this election on that momentum.
  4. Texans don't have any good reason to have heard of him. The people of the blue wall know him.
  5. Figure it's going to happen at this point. I'm still not sure it's good or bad election-wise assuming it's Harris. If I had to pick my candidate, given the importance of Pennsylvania and the relative good standing the state has for Shapiro, I'd just run him and VP Harris but I don't think she'd go for it. 4 months is enough time for Shapiro to become known and he's a pretty good public speaker and policy-wise he's pretty centrist and would be palatable to undecideds and double haters. But it'll be Harris. She brings some good things and some bad. What is the net effect in the few states that matter we'll see.
  6. Since the debate we now have had an assassination attempt and an 81 year old getting COVID. There’s 4 months left. No way the debate performance is going to register in 2 weeks, let alone 4 months.
  7. Have you considered that this campaign to sideline Biden does not actually erode his electoral support in case he remains the nominee? Maybe polling will show dips but I don't think it will be persistent. I don't think people are thinking to switch to Trump or staying home or motivating MAGA turnout based on this movement turning public. If this is at all stress related I'd suggest stop watching news channels and try to get some more time outdoors. Hope you are fine. Best wishes.
  8. The election still seems to be framed as Biden vs. Trump. It's too early for most people to think of it as Not Trump vs. Trump. But our assholes will get tighter as November approaches and hopefully the election is framed more in that manner as the days tick by.
  9. Had anyone done a deep dive on RFK's support? I'd like to know specifically why he's generally polling at at least double the vote share of third party candidates in previous elections? His surname has something to do with it but it's not like he himself has a lot of fame. Maybe some of it is concern over Biden's age. My theory is that the delta over previous third party candidate performance is largely protest positioning. I believe it's not actual support for his platform or otherwise a marker of low intelligence and information that would lead you to believe that if his vote share dropped to conventional levels that Trump would get a bigger slice of the pie than Biden. These are the folks that are partly responsible for his terrible approval rating above and beyond which polarization can explain, be it over Gaza or student debt or old or some other issue. They are also the ones polling senate Dems. They'll continue to protest while it doesn't count, but will be back in the fold in November. If they are voting Trump they are polling Trump today. The veneer of shame people had polling/voting for Trump in 2016 and 2020 has vanished. They are loud and proud now. If you look at the polls of the alternative Dem candidates and how they position vs. Biden, I think there is a substantial overlap between RFKs support over historical baseline and the difference between Biden/other D. Maybe I just made up bullshit and they go vote for Trump. I also for mental health reasons don't watch any political TV and this thread is more or less it for my election/political news.
  10. I believe 538 gives less weight to polling at this early stage in favor of economic markers and I believe incumbency. It's hard to know whether incumbency matters anymore for Biden though. I think as we get closer to the election and the model starts weighing polling more then the prediction will shift. I still don't think the polls are accurate and are too favorable to Trump. I think the RFK polling is not necessarily crazy people who are more aligned to Trump and that will end up going "home" to Trump in November, but rather pure protest polling by people likely to vote Biden and RFK is the "loudest" protest polling you can do. Polling for Maryanne Williamson doesn't register as a protest. I think a big bucket of RFK votes are actually going to vote Biden in the end. It's one way to reconcile the Senate/Presidency polling discrepancy. Well, that's what I'm going to choose to believe as I go to sleep tonight because it sounds like something Hunter would be telling his father right now.
  11. It is a bizarre statement but I'm strongly surprised she laid blame at the feet of the correct party. She seems like the type that peel off the 20-30% Democrat vote in a place like WV or similar states/counties. Saying what she needs to say so that she's not ostracized by her friends and family who are assumed predominately MAGA after having lost her husband.
  12. At least they had a gay white male on the ticket last time.
  13. Trump has unpaused the campaign. It's time to get back to it Biden.
  14. I was trying to find information on Ewers apparently being MAGA and came across this: https://larrybrownsports.com/football/sauce-gardner-epic-photo-donald-trump-shooting/636087 I think so many of these people coming out are cool tweeting this stuff out but registering to vote and finding out where to go on a Tuesday afternoon instead of staying at home to play video games and browse 4chan? Don't see it.
  15. I know many of you are surrounded by Republican family members and friends, but I’ve been surprised by how many in my circle I’ve communicated with in the last day have said to me something to the effect “we were only inches from Haley or DeSantis”. These people have no personal affection for Trump. But my circle is more the rich, low taxes type than MAGA.
  16. I actually think this is by and large true. The outcome will be determined by the Democratic GOTV operation, driven by Project 2025 and womens rights, and how effective it is in the swing states. I don't think anything either Biden or Trump do, besides dying, is material to the outcome of the election.
  17. I'm sure someone will be polling Pennsylvania soon, so we'll see the immediate impacts of polling. I'm sure there will be a republican bump but transient in nature just like everything has been so far. Still curious to see how much the bump will be. Do pollsters publish data on respondent percentages?
  18. Don't think there's any significant electoral impact of this. Everyone saying "I know who I'm voting for now!" already knew and are probably the most ardent of his supporters.
  19. He won't be the last one to do so, and in the context of the election having more of them exhibit their crazy will be to the Dems benefit.
  20. Do you apply this level of rigor in your analysis of other Trump situations and comments or only the ones that suit you? There are plenty of other Trump related items that need this level of critical analysis.
  21. The coup seems to have failed. They'll try again before the convention. I'm not sure how I feel in terms of best odds to win the election. I'm still thinking it's Biden but I don't know how he can persistently be a flamethrower with an 8pm bedtime and no more major old episodes. It's possible, but is it probable? The closer we get to the election the more it has to become a referendum on Trump, whereas now all the coverage is on Biden. That has to change. I think it will but that's partly hope based, I'll admit.
  22. Someone should convince Taylor Swift to run. That'll run up the democratic GOTV numbers for the group that never votes. Swift fills the any human with a pulse criteria for all the people that were already going to vote for Biden tomorrow.
  23. Biden has to project that unwavering opinion that he is President and the running for re-election every time he is asked until that moment that he announces he's stepping down. There is no other answer. I doubt what is occurring behind the scenes reflects the public answers to those questions.
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