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Fozzz

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Everything posted by Fozzz

  1. holy shit I never heard about this. I would read BON all the time back in the VY glory days before BC was really a thing. Wescott isn't the most insightful writer but he does have a point about Texas fans being whiny cunts. I don't know people have such a visceral hatred towards him - I used to play poker with him while we were at UT and he was a good dude.
  2. No stat isolates for the performance of the other players on the field. You might as well argue that YPA, completion percentage, or any other stat. Even in baseball you can't fully isolate a hitter's or pitcher's performance over what is contributed by opposing players and noise. The fact that you can't isolate a player's skill from noise and the contribution of other players' skills will always be true and pointing that out is not in any way profound or interesting. It's just an obvious statement that has no bearing on anything I've said on this thread, yet you keep bleating it. As for SP+ underrating Herman's teams in prior seasons, I'm not aware of Sushi's post but I don't think SP+ has a history of underrating Texas. For instance, S&P+ had Texas going 8-4 in it's pre-season 2017 projected record. So, relative to SP+'s preseason expectations, during Tom's tenure at Texas it overrated his team one season, underrated it another, and just about nailed it in the third. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/5/17/15634960/texas-longhorns-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster More importantly though, the fact that Tom had overperformed relative to SP+ in his time at UH was no basis for arguing that you should expect Tom to continue to perform relative to that metric. It was probably just noise!
  3. lol this must be the stat to which Burt Tardlin refers. Note that this is a volume stat, not a rate stat, and thus should not be used in judging the quality of play of a given player, as I said above. SIS doesn't even have a /play version of this stat. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/introducing-total-points
  4. I wonder which one of us will have more luck - you finding posts made by me where I argue that things like EPA are somehow comparable to baseball WAR, or posts made by you whining about how Texas was criminally underrated heading into this season by SP+, only to look like a huge dumbass as the season unfolded.
  5. This is a lot of words to say next to nothing other than the stats are flawed (lol no shit). No one is arguing that we have or will have stats for measuring individual production of the same caliber as those used in other sports. Also, although you don't state what stat you are referring to, Rodgers' actual EPA/play is nowhere near the best in the league. I'm not sure what you are even trying to say by arguing that EPA is a "team stat" and not a "QB stat." The best stat out there for predicting future QB performance combines EPA/play with CPOE, so EPA/play certainly has value in judging the performance of QBs. I don't know why you think QBR is a "garbage stat" given that it's comprehensive, opponent adjusted, and about as predictive of future performance than things like YPA, DVOA, etc. All in all, nice try retard.
  6. It is pretty nuts how much money top coaches in CFB are making while the top players get fucking shafted. Shit is indefensible.
  7. Also, as noted in that fivethirtyeight article, total QBR is probably the best publicly available metric we have for evaluating college QBs, and Sam performed exactly the same in 2018 and 2019 (77.3 QBR in both seasons). Hopefully Yurcich will help with the stall in Sam's development that occurred this season.
  8. This is true and something I wish we had. Indeed, completion percentage that accounts for air yards is one of the best metrics to rely upon when judging how well a college QB will perform in the NFL. The data apparently exists but it's not publicly available. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/
  9. Lmao
  10. I think it would be silly to critique Rhule’s track-record of turning around college programs. It’s a different question though of how important that really is in judging whether or not he’ll be successful in the NFL.
  11. Do the Jets really count?
  12. Have you watched very many Chiefs or Ravens games this season? Rhule's offensive philosophy is in the opposite direction of where the NFL is headed.
  13. Please do not ever look at volume stats like total passing yards and touchdowns, as these a reflection of usage as much as or more so than efficiency. Also, completion percentage elides what kinds of passes are being completed as downfield passes are both harder to complete and much more valuable. A publicly available completion percentage metric that incorporates air yards (like NFL's CPOE) would be very valuable in determining the effectiveness of each QB, but we don't have that for college.
  14. Rhule seems to be a fine coach, but he's getting this job largely in part because of the job Phil Snow did on defense this season, particularly ripping off ISU's defensive scheme. Rhule also seems to have some very backwards views on offense, which could hold back his team unless he's willing to set those ideas aside.
  15. lol Baldwin found the same quotes I was harping about a week or two ago. Rhule might be a body blows truther.
  16. Phil Snow ripping off the inverted tampa 2 finna get Rhule an NFL gig.
  17. Why shouldn't they keep Moore given what he accomplished with Dak and the offense this season?
  18. This seems to be an indictment of Beck and the rest of the offensive coaching staff: 2018: Sam's EPA/play: .366 Sam's EPA/dropback: .349 Sam's EPA/rush: .422 2019: EPA/play: .364 EPA/dropback: .352 EPA/rush: .413 From an EPA standpoint, Sam did not improve in 2019 from 2018. Note that elite college QBs are around .500 or greater in EPA/play (Burrow was .641 this season), so Sam and Yurcich have some work to do if they wish to reach those same heights.
  19. McCarthy was actually better than average on 4th down decision making, and the Packers have regressed following his departure.
  20. Tucker must have given Trump a call. Not gonna believe any of this until it actually happens, but pretty awesome if true.
  21. Trump gonna run on the claim of having ended the Iraq war.
  22. Why would it be a bad idea to keep Moore? Moore did an excellent job.
  23. Not every team does. I don't think the Titans do, for instance. I bet there are many teams with a "department" comprising a few guys whose insights are not valued at all by the coaching staff and thus not implemented. The article creates the impression that McCarthy sees a lot of value in having a cutting edge analytics department and thus will be willing to implement any insight it may provide. Of course, who knows if that will actually happen.
  24. I think an early sign of whether this hiring will work out is whether McCarthy retains Moore.
  25. Rodgers is just old and average now. He was getting progressively worse in McCarthy's last years and his decline has continued following McCarthy's departure. Compare 2009-2014 prime Rodgers (top) versus 2016-2019 washed Rodgers:
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