Longhornmaniac8

Buttigieg and Yang need to be responsible for developing the party platform and in charge of its marketing. They get it. They get how messaging matters. The rest of the party, especially the left flank, don't. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

97K margin in PA. There are a lot of votes left. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

With 91K votes left in Philly, it's not unreasonable to think he might net 75-80K there. That would cut Trump's lead to only about 30K with 260K votes left. People need to stop worrying about PA. Just let it happen. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Biden will win Georgia. He'll net 4K in Clayton, 4-5K in Fulton, 3K in Gwinnett, and that's ignoring the 17K in Savannah, which should easily net the difference, even if Trump won a few votes in Forsyth. Provisionals and Military vote will basically offset, I suspect. Similar totals, similar, but opposite partisan skew. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Correct. He is. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

But also keep counting!!!

Nearly 3 million. 2.1% right now. Should keep going up thanks to PA and CA.

I could buy that. You're correct in that processing may be different than reporting. If they'd put out 30K, I would've expected to see Trump's margin decrease, and I haven't seen that to the degree I'd expect (20-25K based on voting), so perhaps it hasn't been tallied yet.

If true, this is real bad news for Biden in Georgia. He was running up the score in DeKalb.

Thanks for posting this. I was getting a little tired of people dismissing Trump in AZ. I'm still bullish on Biden, but I have to admit this information, which I'd seen elsewhere, gives me cause for concern. I fear Fox and the AP called the race with misinformation regarding what vote was still out there. It's also important to note that we don't really have a good beat on how these "late early" votes will go. Election Day results skewed heavily R (62-37 in Maricopa), while early voting went for Biden. It's easy to argue there will be enough from each camp to more or less offset, but I don't think you can make that claim yet. If these late-deciding (or at least late acting) votes break for Trump, it's plenty easy to overcome a 90K vote deficit. I'm more nervous about both AZ and NV than I was last night. I still think Biden is in the pole position in both states, and I feel better about Biden in Clark than I do in Maricopa, but both of these deserve watching.

Maybe not quite that long, but yep. I've been mainlining results since about 12 noon yesterday.

Yes. Only 7 precincts not reporting. 5 are in Kenosha, and I believe we know from earlier that those will be about a 9-10K margin for Biden. For some reason they're not showing as reported, but that information was available earlier (Silver said something about it). He should be up roughly 20K by the end of it.

It's on Decision Desk.

At this point I think Biden is a favorite to win every state left except NC. Narrowly, particularly in the cases of WI, NV, and GA, but I think he's able to get it done.

I know, and my head knows they're likely to break for Biden, but with such a small margin in a red county, I need to see it for myself. I know it's not Brown County votes, but instead Green Bay City votes, which broke for Clinton +3, but I need to see that 7K stretch to 20K before I'll feel good.

The only toss-up there was the 2nd, which he lost. Everything else was totally expected.

I really need Green Bay to come in so I can go to sleep.

There's a substantial amount of Wayne County still to report (~40% last I saw). Plus mail-in vote in Oakland and Macomb, which should both go for Biden. He's sitting fairly pretty in MI right now, just need to be patient. In WI, just waiting on the Green Bay votes to come in. Once they do, you'll have a great idea of where the final margin will be. Kenosha still looks to have about 10K D votes to go based on 2016 margins, as well. There's basically nothing left anywhere else. According to the AP, there's 54 precincts outstanding out of nearly 3700. 47 of them are in Brown County (Green Bay), and 5 are in Kenosha.

Biden up 20K now in WI.

Biden's basically needs to win Milwaukee 4:1 or just slightly less than that. There is precedent for that in 2018. Remember, these are absentee votes that will go even more heavily for Biden than the rest of the vote in Milwaukee.

WI can't post any Absentee ballots until they're all finished. There will be a big statewide dump that favors Ds.

Remember, for all the reasons Biden started off strong in the South and has petered out epically, things will operate in reverse in the Midwest because of the delays in starting the mail-in vote count. Also, I think I found the issue with Fox's NC projection. They still have Wake County (Raleigh) with only 14% of the vote in, but with an accurate vote count. If their model thinks there are a lot of votes outstanding there, it would make sense.

The narrative tonight has really not focused on the blue mirage the way it should have. The early vote was always going to go for Biden. I haven't heard that mentioned hardly at all on NBC or CNN.

Not really. He's running well short of Hillary in the Rio Grande Valley thus far.

The underperformance of Biden among the Hispanic community could be a canary in the coal mine for Arizona.