Also worth pointing out the enormous (>25%) amount of undecided D voters in the Senate race. Even the numbers overall point to ~20ish% undecided on that race. That's probably bad news for Hegar in the sense she's been practically invisible. So many people don't know who she is or what she stands for. Most of that is self-inflicted, but I have to wonder how much she got from the Senate D PAC. I'd imagine not much, given the importance of so many other races. I haven't paid attention to her fundraising, but with those numbers either her campaign is truly historically bad or she didn't have that much finding. Both can be true to differing degrees. That said, I think she'll overperform her polling, but still lose. It's just hard to imagine many Texas Democrats splitting their ticket given the current political environment. It's also a good sign she seems to be running slightly ahead with Independents. Overall this particular race feels like a case of "what ifs" for Texas Democrats. What if they'd had a better {candidate, message, campaign,}. I don't even think she's necessarily a bad candidate. Some of the consistent attacks levied by Republicans would be tough lands on her, especially with respect to rah-rah military patriotism. She's pretty moderate, which is what Texas needs right now if we expect to flip it.