RayDog

It is setting in with me that due to poor planning more people in the Philippines will likely die of starvation than die from the disease. That may be true in a lot of poorer countries.

I am 58. I am also fat from too many beers and margaritas over the years, so while I am generally healthy I am not in the best possible shape for dealing with this.

Thanks, I reallly appreciate it but I am staying. The 86 year old American here died on Saturday. There are now 140 cases and 12 deaths here so the Philippines is about 10 days behind the US. One of the dead was 40 with no preexisting conditions. Everything is still centered on Manila, but I am sure it is here since a local Grab driver git it. Grab is the Asian Uber. The mayor decided to close all bars and clubs starting the 16th. I am already having women I have not had sex with in over a year asking for money, and others that I never met. I am turning them down as I have scaled back my activities to avoid infection, and am mostly helping my most recent ex-gf and her family. There will be some temptations I may not be able to resist, and I will give some women I know food money with no boom-boom required, since I am a nice guy. Most of the expats here are Trumpers with preexisting conditions who have not prepared at all because they still think it is a hoax that is no worse than the flu. I have been telling them to give someone their family contact information, and I have offered to help with arrangements for a few friends if I make it and they don't or vis versa.

Why fight the fever? As long as it us not dangerously high the fever helps kill the virus. Dr. John Campbell who I follow on YouTube thinks fighting a mild fever is a terrible idea.

An ex-Gf's bar closed due to a lack of business so I took her grocery shopping and gave her extra cash so her daughters and parents can buy food. She also lives with a nephew and his girlfriend, so they can eat too. I told her she can come live with me if things get real bad. My landlord was short on cash to pay her workers so I paid half my rent 10 days early so her workers could buy some food. I have had 5 other women message me needing money, a couple are FB friends I have never met in person. I can't afford to help them all, but I will make sure the ones closest to me are ok. I saved a bunch of 100 peso Bill's ($2) so I can hand them out so people can get a meal. There are also a couple beggars I know who are not making their usual big numbers because of the lack of tourists, so I am handing out a few pesos so they can eat. I usually don't give to beggars since most of them make really good money, much better than workers working for minimum wage. I know some here may consider me scum due to my lifestyle but factoring in the velocity of money I buy over 50 meals a day for the locals with the money I spend. With no tourists it is even more important that I keep helping people, so I feel like I can't stay locked in my apartment.

NDT has a report on China's claim that the coronavirus is a US bioweapon. The story starts at the 4:05 mark.

Yes, my ex has a 100.4 degree fever. I last saw her on Monday (but no boom-boom) so she had probably been infected then. She works in a bar and all her friends work in bars so if she has the coronavirus it is already everywhere here.

Thanks for the compliment. Given my background in emergency response with DSHS I have been wishing there was something I could do. There is a lack of leadership and what is passing for leadership is mostly a lot of bad ideas.

He is also ending travel of people from countries with community transmission, which ends most foreign travel. So I am stuck here for the duration. My calculation is that there will be 10 million cases in metro Manila in 4 to 5 weeks with illnesses peaking there a couple weeks after. Angeles won't be far behind. I just got a DM from my most recent ex asking about treating a fever. I will tell her don't, since that is how the body fights off a virus. I have not gone out the past two nights but I am not changing my habits yet. I still go out to eat breakfast and dinner with my best friend here. I am resigned to getting it and hope I survive.

In today's video from Peak Prosperity they pointed out that if you go from when a country had its 100th case, the US is about 10 days behind Italy. Given that the US is bigger it has to double between 2 and 3 more times, so the entire country will be where Italy is now in about 17-19 days. In the Philippines there are 49 cases as of yesterday and the first death of a Filipina infected locally. But her infected husband was at a meeting of the Senate, and many politicians are in Quarantine. There is a run on goods in Manila and people fleeing before the lock down. I estimate it will take about 5 weeks for there to be around 10 million infected in Metro Manila, almost half of the people who live there. Angeles won't be far behind. It turns out the 86 year old American here is still in critical condition and his 82 year old Filipina wife has been intubated. I guess given their ages that they met during the Vietnam war or possibly even earlier. They are in Manila. The only cases near me are two quarantined crew members from the Diamond Princess in New Clark City in Tarlac. One of my girlfriends lives in Tarlac.

Because they are not going to test for it and let people die from "non-specific pneumonia" while claiming that the great communist system put a stop to it in March.

Except if you do what China, Singapore, or South Korea are doing you make the second wave the worst one.

Bullshit. This is a pandemic. There is no eliminating it from a particular community unless it can be completely isolated until a vaccine is available. Also flattening the curve for one month does not buy us anything. It will take 3 to 6 months.

So they die 2 months later? One month will only delay things one month plus the time it takes the illness to work. Waiting it out means waiting for a vaccine which could take a year. We cannot all go into quarantine for a year as more people would die of starvation.

The part about 80% will not be exposed is bs. With an R0 above 4 more than 80% of people must develop immunity before heard immunity reduces the spread. To get immunity they will either need to be infected or vaccinated. There will be 2 or 3 waves of infections before the vaccine comes out, so by that time close to 80% may have been infected anyway. But don't worry someone in big pharma will get rich from the vaccine even though it will really be too late for most people. The best strategy is to try to slow the spread enough that the healthcare industry can keep up with the cases that need ventilators while not collapsing the economy. Severe quarantines such as in China will just make the second wave worse than the first as soon as people return to work. By going from one extreme to the other by first allowing the spread to overwhelm their healthcare system, then instituting draconian quarantine measures to freeze their economy and ensure a massive second wave of infection, China has handled the virus in the worse possible way.

The University of the Philippines developed a test kit that costs P1320 ($26.50) per test to run it locally. I also recall reading that the US FDA already approved it but I might be wrong on that.

Yesterday the mayor of Angeles City Philippines issued his own ban on new visitors from China, Hong Kong, Macau, South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy. Starting midnight last night he was stationing police at all entrances to the city to enforce the ban. I am curious to see if they actually turn away next weekend's batch of Korean tourists. With the threat of a lock-down of Manila, people from of places are heading home to their provinces now since most have to take a bus through Manila. This will probably ensure rapid spread to the provinces, as I suspect workers in Manila are leaving too while they can.

That should be in the middle of the second wave.

I can tell you don't live with a woman.

The average Filipina is about 4'10", so 5'7" is unusual. If you are checking out a 5'7" woman on walking street it is probably a ladyboy. I tend to stick with women 5'2" or less just to be safe. If they have more than a B cup they are going to be pretty thick everywhere. Some guys are into that.

I pulled that picture off her facebook, and given how skinny she is it was probably taken before her Filipino boyfriend got her pregnant, which means she was most likely 16 in the picture. I did not know her then. She is not any taller but is chubbier and looks older now.

Forgive me. I forgot the 4 footer. And her birthday is December 23, 2000 and she has a 2 year old.

OK, I know the rules. First is the 27 year old college student 5'2" 35 Kg. She wants to teach math. Here are my 4 most serious girlfriends of the past two years, and I am still friends with them. I lived with the first one for almost six months last year.

Very true even with girlfriends here.

That's ok. Sex always involves bartering at some level. I find it refreshing to be with women who acknowledge that fact and are open about it. It is a lot more honest than any normal American style relationship I had.