RayDog

It sounds like 69 with an infected woman could be really bad for me.

Two people traveling from other countries to the Philippines tested positive when they got home. A Taiwanese man came here with friends and had diarrhea 4 days into his trip so he may have been infected in Taiwan and spread it here. The other is a Woman from Australia and given the limited number of cases in Australia she may have caught it here. A Korean escaped from Quarantine 2 days ago and stayed in a hotel near me and ate at a local restaurant that I walk past daily. We don't know yet if he is infected or if the police caught him. Maybe I will learn something new when I go to breakfast. I think the Philippines is going to have community spread cases very soon.

One factor I was thinking about in estimating US fatality rates based on data from China, beyond the Chinese data being mostly nonsense, is that the US has a higher percentage of 70+ year olds than China. In the 80-84 range, for example, they are 1.1% of China's population and 1.9% of the US population. That factor alone will increase the CFR in the US, independent of all other considerations. There are 22.7 million Americans in the 70-79 range and 12.7 million are 80+. The older age groups are also more likely to get a serious form of the illness, although I have not seen an estimate on that. But if 80+ year old persons with a serious form of the disease are ~50x more likely to die from it than younger adults, they are probably many times more likely to get a serious case of the disease. One commonly cited estimate is that 80% of people who are infected get a mild form of the disease, but that will not be true for older age ranges. Older people in the two countries may also have vastly different living arrangements and social activities with vastly different risks of infections. Consequently the CFR among those with a serious form of the disease could be significantly higher in the US. It would be nice if we had some trustworthy data to work from.

My brother in law who teaches nursing sent out this link that conjunctivitis is one early symptom. I assume from when someone rubs it in their eyes. https://www.aao.org/headline/alert-important-coronavirus-context

A couple weeks ago South Koreans watching the North reported they were do mass cremations in the open. But officially there are no cases. Sort of like Thailand having 2700 cases of severe viral pneumonia but very few Covid 19 cases, without the burning bodies in the open.

Does having sex with 5 or 6 different women a week make me immunologically naive or a super spreader?

The Philippines is not getting new cases yet but Thailand is and Singapore did with similar temperatures. The R0 will likely drop with temperature, but it still appears to reproduce with R0 greater that 1.0. Flu has a lower R0 in winter of 1.4 or 1.5 per one source I heard. That allows it to drop below 1.0 when the temperatures go up. The covid 19 virus has an R0 of 4.7 to 6.6 which stays well above above 1.0 in Thailand temperatures.

I can't determine if it is I or my girlfriends that are the super spreaders.

The highs have been around 92F with lows around 72F.

The Philippines still has no confirmed cases of local transmission and only 33 under observation in hospitals. Unlike the US they test pneumonia cases as well as anyone with known contacts. So unless it has been brought in recently the Philippines is ok. If there are viral pneumonia deaths here it will be all over facebook as they love posting glass casket, or open cardboard box pictures of their loved ones, and it is impossible to stop the rumors everytime a hospital has someone under quarantine. The partial ban of South Korean travelers has not been implemented, but 11 from Daegu were quarantined in Boracay and sent home. In practice it is difficult to know for certain whether a Korean lives in or traveled through Daegu if the flight does not originate from there. That said, the number of Korean tourists, or East Asian tourists in general is way down. But, the virus will come here eventually. My girlfriends and I are safe for now.

In peak prosperity's YouTube update yesterday they had data that Thailand has 2700 viral pneumonia cases and the number is increasing exponentially. It seems they are tracking it that way so they don't scare off tourists. There may be 10x that many with a significant illness and 100x that are asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms. We don't really know. It is wishful thinking if you believe hot weather is going to stop it.

I really need to do a better job proofreading.

The Philippines banned travelers from North Gyeongsang South Korea where Daegu is located. They also banned Filipinos from traveling to North Korea unless they are residents or students. They will decide if they need to expand the ban in another day or so. I noticed last night that there were far fewer Koreans on the street and the Korean owned bars were trying to get white guys like me to go in when they usually won't give us the time of day.

Mnuchin and Kudlow added to the task force and all federal public statements have to approved by Pence. They really don't care how many people get sick and die. Too bad they will be disproportionately killing their own base.

Los Alamos reanalyzed Chinese data to estimate the initial R0 was 4.7 to 6.6 and the doubling period 2.4 days. If we assume community spread is three people removed from person zero for a given cluster of cases with an R0 of 4 that means 64 people might be infected. It takes 4.5 days on average before symptoms and the average person waits 5 days before being hospitalized. Intubation, when necessary, happens in 7 to 9 days after initial symptoms. So the woman in NorCal was infected over three weeks ago. During that time the number of cases have doubled 7 to 9 times. Compute 64 to the 7th or 9th power to get an estimate the current number of infected in that cluster alone. A YouTube channel called Peak Prosperity quoted a study that analyzed how many cases there had to be in Iran for the first three cases of transmission outside the country to occur. There result was a 95% confidence range if 4000 to 50000 with a mean of 18000. Given there are more than a dozen such cases now the number of infected in Iran is over 100,000. Given the number of foreign transmission cases from Italy they also have over 100,000 infected. Of course, Korea and Japan have probably passed 100,000 as well. I suspect Thailand and North Korea have too, but they are not reporting. Given those numbers either a lot of deaths are not being properly reported or the case fatality rate is lower than is being reported. We can hope it is the later.

As I posted in politics. If there was a local cluster of 20, in the time she has been intubated it is now 160. If 100 it is now 800. Assuming 6 or more clusters in the US there will be between 100,000 and 1,000,000 infected in 3 weeks. A month or so later, everybody.

In the 10 days she has been intubated the local cluster has doubled three times, conservatively 20 to 160 but likely 100 to 800 or more. There are probably a half dozen clusters like that in the US. There will be between 100,000 and 1,000,000 cases in the US in the next 3 weeks since the government will do nothing to slow in down. A month later it will be everywhere.

Except that 5 million people left Wuhan before the quarantine started, and probably half of those who stayed were infected based on the number of cremations being performed. When I was out having lunch 2 hours ago I saw very few Korean tourists, so the number coming in this weekend appear down. I will be able to judge it better when I walk around tonight. With any luck they are deciding to stay home on their own. Duterte has not been willing to suspend travel from Korea yet. I saw an ex gf yesterday and she was saying how much she misses boom-boom. I asked her that I thought she was being barfined. She said yes, but only Koreans and they are too small.

4 so far

John Campbell Video Here is a good video about a Los Alamos analysis that says the R0 was really in the 4.7 to 6.6 range in the early days in Wuhan which led to doubling every 2.4 days. This is what I estimated it would be in the Philippines due to hygiene practices and the average number if people who live together. It would not surprise me if this is the rate of spread in Iran now with no control measures in place.

The Chinese published a study when they first had 70000 cases or so. There were no deaths in the 0 to 9 age range, and 10-19 was very low, I think one death. From 20-29 it jumped to .3% and I think it was 0.4% in the 30-39 range. After that it increased into percent ranges and hit 15% or so for 80 year olds.

Somewhere around 10 to 20% of deaths are due of myocarditis. Some who survive have damaged hearts and are more likely to die of myocarditis the second time. I was watching a video that mentioned that the virus binds with the ACE-2 sites, so it is possible that ACE inhibitors such as losartan can bind with ACE-2 sites in the lungs and slow the effects of the Coronavirus. I am going to ask around about getting a supply since it is worth a shot.

Yes, I think so. While mostly polynesian/Latina with lots of variety, some are half-Chinese, half-Japanese, half-Korean, half-white, half-black with skin colors ranging from pale white to "negra" as my girlfriend calls herself. I have a thing for darker skinned women. After two years I look for women who make me think "wow" the first instant I see them, and then I go with my instincts, assuming the negotiations work out. No blow no go.

I like the compound idea, but right now I only have an apartment. I meant that 3 or 4 Koreans will often sit at a table near me, more at a Korean restaurant. I usually pass hundreds on the street at night when I am out, but I tend to go to Aussie run bars since the girls there tend to prefer white guys. The girls at Korean bars usually prefer East Asian guys. I will probably get infected quick once it gets here.

There are still no new cases in the Philippines and fewer than 100 are in hospital isolation. At this point almost all of them have tested negative. Tourists are still coming from Korea and Japan. I still see Koreans in the restaurants where I like to eat. I had a dry cough for 6 days but now it is turning productive and I may have a mild fever. My forehead felt a little warm this morning but feels fine now, so it may be nothing. My O2 is 96%. I happened to throw a meter in my suitcase and now I am glad I have it since I can know when I might have to go to the hospital for oxygen. I had the flu a month ago and it was much worse than what I have now, so far. I recommend that everyone get an O2 meter. They are cheap.