RayDog

People are getting stuck in the Philippines already and flights through more infected countries could be cancelled in the next 4 weeks. I don't recommend that anyone come to the Philippines now as it will spread to the entire country in a month to 6 weeks from the first major outbreak. I have had a dry cough for two days and I think more of my friends are coughing. I hope I just have an alergy or ate some bad pussy.

There won't be much difference between the Kelly-McSally numbers and the Dem-Trump numbers. It will be a point or so difference at most.

At a 2% death rate more than three weeks into their infection there were more than 450 infected 3 weeks ago. With doubling every 6 days that means 3600 infected now at a minimum. It is likely more than 10,000. There is no containing it at this point.

I have been going back and forth on whether I would want a girl to stay with me during quarantine, so I can still get laid regularly. We would go though my food and water supplies twice as fast but if I run out of meat and things get really desperate...

All of them.

I don't know about the Philippines but there was a video of an Indonesian wet market on Facebook with some small Cornish game hen sized ones but some looked like they were more than a foot long.

I am good. As I said in the other thread I am waiting for flight from Korea to stop, as that means 1000+ more girls will be dateless. I am going to ride out this storm as best I can, and hope I survive the inevitable infection.

I asked my girlfriend if she ever ate rat or bat and she said she ate bat, but not rat, but she knew people who eat rat. She said bat is masarap (tasty).

Since Duterte ended Chinese flights over two weeks ago and there has been no outbreak in the Philippines, it appears he stopped the flights in time. With a thousand or more Korean tourists coming to Angeles each weekend, I am afraid that there could be an outbreak started by a Korean tourist. In any case, I suspect that flights from Korea will have to be shut down in a few weeks, and that means a thousand Filipinas will not be getting laid (making money) as regularly as usual. That is a win for me.

I am sure some will vote for Tulsi or Bloomberg, Fox's favorite "Democrats."

There is no way Wisconsin has moved 7+ points in Trump's favor over the past 3 years.

Progressives know who to vote for and there is only one in this race. It does not surprise me Ramirez is in 2nd.

Banana plantations in the Philippines are hurting is one example of how my new home country is being effected. It has also hurt tourism and is delaying projects. If it spreads in South Korea and Japan and travel from there is banned it will hurt tourism and industry even more.

Reuters/Ipsos poll Independent Article Reuters/Ipsos poll "Overall, the number of "certain" voters rose by 7 percentage points nationally from 2015 to 2019. It increased by more than that in the largest metropolitan areas, rising by 9 points in communities with between 1 million and 5 million people and 8 points in metropolitan areas with at least 5 million people. Smaller and rural communities lagged behind. The number of "certain" voters rose by 5 points in sparsely populated, Republican-dominated "non-metro" areas." "In a region formed of "battleground" states including Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado, the number of "certain" voters rose by 9 percentage points in large metropolitan areas that have a population of at least 5 million, and 8 points in areas with 1 to 5 million, while it rose by 4 points in smaller, non-metropolitan areas." "Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who studies voter turnout,[...] expects as many as two-thirds of the voting-age population may cast ballots, a record level of participation for a US presidential election." Me: If 66% of eligible voters vote that will be over 70% of registered voters in a majority of states.

It is the percentage of registered voters and yes it was over 61% nationally in 2016. And if you think the turnout will be lower than for Trump and Hillary, then there is no point having an intellectual discussion with you. In 2016 two states did surpass 70% of eligible voters and a group of others including Florida passed 65%. So there may be a dozen or so states that pass the 70% of eligible voters with close to half being at 70% of registered voters. I still expect Texas to be around 64% of registered voters, call it +/- 3%.

There was a 3.5% increase in eligible voters voting in 2008, so there could be a similar percentage this time. That year registrations went up at the same pace so the percentage of registered voters did not go up. Beating 2016 turnout for Hillary and Trump should not be difficult. The jump from 2014 to 2018 puts the turnout in 2020 in uncharted territory. The 70% national number comes from the CNN poll where 74% where extremely or very excited to vote compared to 58% in 2015 and 61% actual in 2016. The real number has always been greater than CNNs number from the year before. Again this is uncharted territory. Some pundits think 70% nationally is possible with a turnout of over 150 million, 21 million more than 2016. I will add that about 10% of the total would come from Texas, which would mean 11 million.

In a previous article it said Harris county registrations went up 14% while the population went up 4%, and for Bexar it was 19% and 11%. Other states along I-35 population centers grew even faster. Have no doubt that this is mostly Democrats and Independents currently leaning Democratic. There have been lots of non-voting Democrats in Texas waiting for the year when their vote would matter again.

Maine is the oldest state by far averaging 44.7 years old. So lots of Boomer and older voters are calling the shots. Interestingly the 10 oldest states are predominantly Democratic while the 10 youngest states are predominantly Republican. At least they will be until the 45 and younger voters become the 50 and younger voters.

17 million registered with a 64% turnout is almost 10.9 million votes. If it gets closer to 11 million votes, Trump loses, several congressional seats will flip, the state house starts looking like a real possibility, and even Cornyn could be beatable.

In a recent Nevada poll Bernie's favorability was +38, Biden's was -2, and Bloomberg's was -16. But Bernie is the least electable according to corporate media.

The polling says independents prefer Bernie, as do the under 45 and minorities. A lot more potential voters will stay home if the nomination is taken from Bernie, assuming he has a plurality.

What post war president with a strong economy didn't get a second term? The coronavirus is starting to cause a world wide recession. The US may be in recession in Q2 and Q3 from it. Recession could cause some economic bubbles to burst. This is coming at the worse possible time for Trump.

Bernie will increase turnout which will help Democrats chances of gaining seats in the house. Trust the polling not the corporate media pundits on this.

To the extent there is any growth in rural counties it is usually the Latino population. Rural white population is almost in universal decline in Texas. The rural vote is +900,000 or so for Republicans but it is fairly fixed as the voter turnout is already high there. They might get another 100,000 votes there. However the counties in the 11 to 30 population are slowly trending more Democratic and Democrats should gain a net 100,000 or so there.

In 2012 the Democrats won the 10 largest counties in the Presidential race by 57,605. In 2016 it was 622,623 and in 2018 939,235. The Democratic to Republican percentages progressed from 50/49(2012) to 54/41 (2016) to 59/40 in 2018. Given those trends I do think Democrats win the 10 largest counties by more than 1.2 million votes in the 10 million turnout scenario and 1.35 or so with the 10.5 million Bernie turnout.