RayDog

I have been wanting to do start a YouTube channel for a long time since video is a much better way to get a message out than papers or books these days, so yesterday I launched my channel. I plan to do a series of videos based on my book The 100 Greatest Lies in Physics and other popular physics topics. The first video is Physics Lies: There is no Ether. In it I discuss how the quantum field fits the definition of ether and meets the physical requirements of being the luminiferous ether. I also explain a numerous evidence for the existence of the quantum field based on standard model quantum field theory. https://youtu.be/iNZKwZsF53I

Not me. My identity is public knowledge as I have linked various papers and books I have written in other threads. Since Republican turnout is almost always higher in special elections, it is hard to read anything into it. The demographic shifts in Texas, without a major change in turnout ratio, is 1.5 to 2% a year, so this result is about what we should expect anyway.

A new article claims that China overestimated it population in 2019 by 121 million. And they have been over reporting births and fertility rates for at least 20 years. The TFR is about 1.2 instead of 1.6. If true, instead of China reaching peak population in a few years, they passed it a decade ago. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3047798/how-chinese-officials-inflated-nations-birth-rate-and-population

I am going to post be an article about Travis county voter suppression on dailykos and send the link to Elfant. They initially suspended me for selling my house. That is bullshit as they had no idea where I moved. Then I sent them the paperwork registered as an expat in 2018 and they never entered it. They never sent me a ballot so I got one off fvap and mailed it, but they refused to count it. So I am still suspended. This is bullshit. They have no right depriving citizens from voting.

Travis county is suppressing my vote again. Like in 2018 they suspended my voter registration. When I try to access their website I get an error. I suspect they are blocking foreign ip addresses trying to intentionally keep expats from voting. I have been trying to access their site for months to reregister. I guess I will get a ballot from fvap and hope for the best.

The UN is already predicting the US 15 to 64 year old demographic will only grow by 10 million in the next 20 years. Republicans are only making things worse. I am one of the ones who left and will probably never return.

The Philippines deported 500 Chinese from Wuhon who flew in on chartered planes. No confirmed cases here yet, but sanitation is terrible here in the provinces. If it hits it could be bad. And we are still waiting for the big explosion of Task volcano.

If I were the next president I would make Schiff Attorney General and give him access to all the evidence.

Convicting non-whites on felony drug charges is part of Republican voter suppression tactics.

A Bernie cult is better than a right by wing corporatist Democrat cult.

I read elsewhere that the Texas Republican party has not grown in Texas in the last 15 years and I found the numbers interesting. Texas 2004 4526917 (Bush) Texas 2008 4479328 (McCain) Texas 2012 4569843 (Romney) Texas 2016 4685047 (Trump) Texas 2018 4656196 (Abbott) 4260553 (Cruz) It appears the they have reached a plateau of sorts. It is no wonder that Cornyn's team is making a point to sign up a million new Republican voters as it will take over 5 million to win in 2020 and operating at replacement level will not be good enough. In 2004 Texas had 22.4 million people and in 2018 28.7 million per Google. I think they will pass 5 million in 2020, but have trouble getting much past the 2020 total over the next decade.

I watched a Ring of Fire YouTube video on the topic of the Florida ex-felons getting their voting rights back. It turns out that after the Republicans decided to add a requirement that all the felons fines be paid, the ex-felons started approaching the counties to see if they are in the clear. It turns out that it is mostly judges in the Democratic leaning counties that either agreeing that the fines were paid or forgiving remaining fines. Judges in Republican counties won't help. So if anything, the Republican voter suppression is increasing the bias toward the ex-felons voting Democratic in the next election. It could be a net gain of 200,000 plus to Democrats, which is enough.

I posted this list in another thread but it should be here too. People seem to forget how big the Trump wave was from 2012 to 2016 in WI, MI, PA, OH and IA, and that much of that disappeared already in 2018. Michigan -0.2% (2012 to 2016 -9.7%) Pennsylvania -0.7% (2012 to 2016 -6.1%) Wisconsin -0.8% (2012 to 2016 -7.7%) Florida -1.2% (2012 to 2016 -2.1%) Arizona -3.5% (2012 to 2016 +5.6%) North Carolina -3.7% (2012 to 2016 -1.7%) Georgia -5.1% (2012 to 2016 +2.7%) Ohio -8.1% (2012 to 2016 -11.1%) Texas -9% (2012 to 2016 +6.8%) Iowa -9.5% (2012 to 2016 -15.3%) Over 4 years around 7.5 million voters die with Trump losing close to 5 million with a net loss of greater than 2 million votes. The 19 million new voters, mostly millennials and Zers, will swing hard to Democrats. Given a few Trump voters who will vote against him in 2020 he can only expect about 56 million votes from the ~63 million who voted for him in 2016. With 140 million total votes expected in 2020 he has to find over 14 million new voters to win the popular vote, out of the 19 million. That won't happen. Given the underlying trend of Arizona and North Carolina toward democrats and deaths, MI, Pa, WI, AZ, and NC should vote against Trump. Florida will Florida, but I think they flip, particularly given the new former felon vote. Ohio, the Florida of the Midwest, will do their thing too, and I suspect they will stick with Trump Only two states bought into Trump's populist lies more than Iowa, but they elected three democratic congressmen in 2018 and Trump's approval is 10 points below water there. I think they swing all the way back. Georgia and Texas are trending hard toward the Democrats. I think this is the year they flip, but that may be wishful thinking. In Texas there will be 2 million or more voters vote who did not vote in 2018, and nearly 90% of them will come from the 10 largest counties that have swung hard toward the Democrats over the last 8 years. They will make it close, perhaps +/- 100,000 votes, or +/- 1%. Georgia should be just as close on a percentage basis.

I did before the Kavanaugh hearings but not afterward, since the voter participation rate for Republicans changed.

Just looking at changes due to voter deaths and new voters, over 2.8 million Americans die a year, for about 11.3 million over 4 years. Given the high voter rates among elderly that is about 8 million voters. And given the advantage to Republicans among the elderly, Trump losses about 5 million voters to about 3 million Clinton voters lost, for a net loss of ~2 million to Trump. I expect 140+ million votes in 2020 versus ~129 million in 2016, so there will be ~19 million people who did not vote in 2016 mostly coming from millennials and Gen Z. If they go 60/40 to Democrats that is an advantage of 3.8 million votes, for a total shift of 5.8 million votes. That predicts the Democratic presidential candidate will win by more than 8 million votes in the popular vote. It could be a 4% shift from 2016. Looking at Trump's winning percentage in the closest states, death and replacement demographics alone should swing the ones through North Carolina. If Trump loses Arizona and North Carolina, as I predict, then McSally and Tillis lose too, as I doubt they can win if Trump loses. Iowa swung by over 15% from 2012 to 2016 and I think they will swing back since Trump's approval is more than ten points under water there. Joni Ernst will not win in Iowa if Trump loses Iowa. Michigan -0.2% (2012 to 2016 -9.7%) Pennsylvania -0.7% (2012 to 2016 -6.1%) Wisconsin -0.8% (2012 to 2016 -7.7%) Florida -1.2% (2012 to 2016 -2.1%) Arizona -3.5% (2012 to 2016 +5.6%) North Carolina -3.7% (2012 to 2016 -1.7%) Georgia -5.1% (2012 to 2016 +2.7%) Ohio -8.1% (2012 to 2016 -11.1%) Texas -9% (2012 to 2016 +6.8%) Iowa -9.5% (2012 to 2016 -15.3%) Texas, Arizona, and Georgia all swung toward the Democrats even in a Trump populist wave year, so I firmly think Trump will lose Arizona given that trend. Adding the two trends together Georgia and Texas are also on the verge of flipping. Texas Democrats have not put up any great Senate candidates, so I think Cornyn can outperform Trump in Texas and keep his seat. I think there is a good chance of getting the open seat in Georgia if Trump loses there, but it is too close to call at this point.

You see the lake it is in. That is its caldera. Taal is not a small volcano. Now it is unlikely that the entire lake will vaporize in a massive explosion, but that is how the depression got there.

There is plenty of partying to be had in Manila, but it costs more there. I am told the Chinese tourists are driving up prices. The Koreans are driving up prices where I live, but more Chinese are showing up here too. I prefer to fly out of Clark and they are opening a new international terminal later this year. But if the big eruption happens Clark will probably be closed too.

Masks are available everywhere here like elsewhere in Asia so that is not a problem. I live in Angeles, so it is out of your way unless you are coming this way to party here or Subic, or to catch a flight out of Clark.

There are clear blue skies this morning and no sign of ash fall where I live. The kids were given the day off school so they can be outside playing when the big eruption happens.

Now the city government is warning of pea sized ash fall tomorrow. That is a pea sized piece of rock thrown almost 100 miles.

The lower 80 percentile UN 15-64 year old population estimate, the one I trust, estimates a growth of 10 million over the next 20 years. That is about 40,000 new employees a month on average. So even with more automation there will be job openings and unemployment will remain low. There will be opportunities for those who want to work and have marketable skills, or are otherwise able to show up for a job. Republicans could not have picked a worse time to stymie immigration.

I live 140 km from the volcano. So far there is only a little tint to the sky that looks odd. I think I will buy a mask when I go out to dinner.

If Iran closes the strait we should let them and see how long that lasts.

Boomer and older will only be about 30% of eligible voters in Texas in 2020, so if Trump wins Texas blame Gen X.

That is why China is losing 500,000 net emigrants and $500 million or more moving out of the country each year. They lose all their supposed growth each year and ends up as bank loan defaults. And they surpassed peak employment last year and are seeing a fall in demand.